Faceoff - RB Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills

Posted 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Andy Hicks

It's easy to be cautious when it comes to rookie running backs. We've never seen them in action at this level and they often have strong competition for playing time. However, Marshawn Lynch should be one of that rare breed - a rookie RB who starts from Day 1.

Let's look at his competition for playing time. Anthony Thomas will be the name that most will be concerned about. Don't be. Thomas hits 30 this year and has not been a presence in the NFL since 2003. Last year was his first real action since 2004 and he recorded at least 15 carries in 4 games while Willis McGahee was injured. How did he do? Against Green Bay he did well with 20 rushes for 95 yards. The performance against Indianapolis of 28 carries for 109 yards may be impressive on paper, but in reality he averaged a full yard and a half per carry less than the rest of the NFL against the woeful Colts Run D. Against Houston and the Jets, he average less than 3 yards a carry. Thomas will probably see some time, but if Lynch is anywhere near NFL caliber he'll start. Fellow rookie Dwayne Wright could be a danger, but lacks the skill set required of an every down back. He does pose a threat for goal line carries.

So, barring injury, a holdout or incompetence, Lynch should be starting for the Bills early on. Let's look at the 12th overall pick from the 2007 draft: Lynch replaced J.J Arrington at California and immediately demonstrated skills that forecasted special talent. He has the power to go through the middle, the moves to take it outside and the speed to be a threat from anywhere on the field. Lynch displayed above average receiving skills, mental toughness and a strong work ethic. He is a patient runner, who understands defensive schemes and is a capable blocker. He'll walk into a stable Buffalo offense, which for the first time in years will have the same scheme in consecutive years. J.P Losman is improving as a QB, the receiving options are steady without being spectacular, the offensive line has undergone significant improvement and the defense should also be improved. What Buffalo miss is a star runner with excellent receiving skills. Enter Lynch.

Out of all the running backs drafted in the first two rounds in recent years, he has arguably the least competition. There have been four backs in a similar situation to Marshawn Lynch: J.J Arrington, Cadillac Williams, Kevin & Julius Jones. Arrington was a bust, while the other three finished 19th, 21st and 28th respectively. All would have finished significantly higher if they didn't miss games. Other rookie backs have made the top 20, and even the top 10, where they've had to share time. Marshawn Lynch is easily the rookie running back in the best situation this year and should convert that into a solid season. Easily worth a third or fourth round pick.

Downside - by Chris Smith

The Buffalo Bills were pleased to welcome rookie RB Marshawn Lynch to the fold and he may ultimately prove to be a top running back at the NFL level. He has good vision, quick feet and the ability to score from anywhere on the field. It is unlikely he will slip into the top-twenty this season however duo to a number of factors such as Anthony Thomas' presence on the roster, the head coach's inclination to use multiple running backs and the growing pains that could be encountered along the offensive line.

Reasons to rank Lynch outside of the top-twenty

1. Learning curve: While Lynch is a talented running back he may not be ready to explode out of the gate. Expect to see him sharing carries with proven veteran Anthony Thomas to begin the season as he learns the professional game.
2. Offensive line improving but not there yet: There is some hope in Buffalo with Jason Peters, Derrick Dockery and company but they still need to develop as an unit which could take up a sizable portion of the season.
3. Lots of talent amongst his peers in the NFL: As you start ranking running backs this season, Lynch is not a sure enough bet to rank him ahead of such players as Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Willis McGahee, Reggie Bush, Edgerrin James, Travis Henry, etc.

Bills RB running back totals

2006

• 366 carries
• 1,368 rushing yards
• 47 receptions
• 330 receiving yards
• 8 touchdowns
• 217.8 total fantasy points

2005

• 371 carries
• 1,408 rushing yards
• 58 receptions
• 413 receiving yards
• 7 touchdowns
• 224.1 total fantasy points

As you can see from the prior two year's data, there hasn't been a ton of fantasy production per touch at the running back position in Buffalo over the last couple of seasons. You could shrug that off if the club had no true presence at running back but in fact, Willis McGahee is a very good player who is capable of piling up yards and touchdowns when the offense is clicking. McGahee had 353 touches in 2005 but still only managed to finish 13th in fantasy production at the RB position.

Last season Bills running backs touched the ball 413 total times. Bills head coach Dick Jauron is already on record that he plans on using multiple running backs this season.

It isn't that I dislike Lynch as a football player. In fact I believe he has the potential to be very good. However with a coach favoring RBBC, a proven veteran in Anthony Thomas in line for touches at RB and a youthful quarterback, there are too many question marks to over value him for the 2007 season.