Faceoff - LB Freddie Keiaho, Indianapolis Colts

Posted 6/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by John Norton

I rank Keiaho in the area of #20 but might actually value him even a little higher. One of the keys to finding quality IDP guys is matching good players with productive situations. Keiaho is a smart player with an excellent motor. He is undersized just like Cato June but is more physical. In very limited action last season Keiaho's big hits forced two fumbles and he has a history of production that goes back to his days at San Diego State where he was credited with 113 solo tackles and an interception in '05. The Colts liked Keiaho enough to make him a 3rd round selection last season. He impressed the coaching staff enough as a rookie that they made no effort to retain June and then later released Gilbert Gardner who was Keiaho's only real competition. He's obviously unproven but will step into a golden situation. June is far from a great linebacker yet despite his shortcomings against the run, he was able to pile up 96 regular season solo tackles and parlay his opportunity into a top 10 finish last season. The Colts stepped up defensively during the playoffs but this is a defense that remains very suspect versus the run. In '06 the Colts had a league high 851 plays run against them that resulted in a player credited with a tackle. Keiaho will line up on the right side which will make him the WLB in most situations and put him in a target rich environment to say the least. I expect him to be in the thick of the battle for the team lead in tackles and very possibly a top 20 linebacker in fantasy terms.

Downside - by David Baker

The weakside linebacker slot for the Indianapolis Colts has been a veritable gold mine for fantasy owners the last several years. First it was Mike Peterson, who quickly became a fantasy powerhouse for the Colts from 1999 through 2002. When he left, David Thornton replaced him. Thornton immediately tossed up 145 total tackles and was a top ten IDP linebacker. Thornton moves to the strong side, his numbers plummet, and Cato June steps up. June's production increases to 142 total tackles last year, helping him become a top 15 IDP LB, and now June leaves the team. IDP owners are salivating at the thought of getting a piece of this prime real estate and are gobbling up Freddy Keiaho, who is the early line favorite to win the job. But is it the system, or is it the player(s)? And in either case, is Keiaho good enough to win and retain the starting job?

One thing is for sure. The players mentioned above who have succeeded with the Colts have gone on to succeed elsewhere. Mike Peterson proved it was more than just the system, as he has been an IDP leader at LB even after leaving the Colts. And Thornton was shifted to the strong side with the Colts and then with Tennessee. At the very least, Thornton has proven to be a viable NFL linebacker. While it remains to be said for Cato June, at least not outside of the Colts system (he is playing for the Bucs now), I still think there is enough evidence to conclude that it's not just the system that has made the spot IDP heaven. The talent has been a major component.

And even if it's the system, at least to some degree, there is no guarantee Keiaho wins the starting job and retains it throughout the season. It's not like Tony Dungy is averse to yanking a starter when he doesn't perform. Look at Gilbert Gardner last year. While the job, at least at this point, is clearly Keiaho's to lose, any steps back at the important position on the Super Bowl Colts will be adjusted as needed without hesitation. Tyjuan Hagler has good skills and excellent speed, a necessity for that position, and will compete with Keiaho. Third round draft pick Clint Session also seems to fit nicely into that position. Even Rocky Boiman can not be written off as a starting candidate. None of those I listed are household names, but neither is Keiaho. The point is that a lot can happen between now and opening day, and just as much in the first few weeks of the regular season. Only the strong survive in the Darwinist NFL, and Keiaho has proven nothing to this point.

Am I intrigued by what Keiaho could bring to his IDP owner? Of course. But don't jump too quickly to judgment that he is the next best thing since sliced bread. He'll have to earn everything he gets.