Faceoff - RB Julius Jones, Dallas Cowboys

Posted 6/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

Once upon a time, Julius Jones was a darling of the fantasy world. He was finding his way into the rarefied air of the top 20 of dynasty drafts, coming off an impressive rookie half season of almost 1000 total yards and seven touchdowns that suggested bigger things in his future. Two years later, Jones is in a contract year and considered the lesser back in an RBBC. Just as the perception of Jones seems to be bottoming out, his situation is showing signs of revival, and your interest in drafting him should, too.

Watching the change in Jones from 2004 to 2005/2006 was painful. His breakaway speed was intact, but he rarely got to show it because he slavishly ran the play as designed. The creativity he displayed in 2004 was nowhere to be found. By the end of 2006, he was down to 11 carries a game over the crucial last six games of the season.

The offseason saw Bill Parcells leave the Cowboys and Wade Phillips usher in a relative looseness that allowed the whole team to exhale. A few players, including Jones, blamed Parcells for their struggles. While this finger-pointing is regrettable, Jones's complaints actually rang true:

"I think maybe I was being told where to run and not really able to use my instincts, and that's what got me here, maybe I listened to coach Parcells a little too much and was just kind of running like a robot."

The Philips/Jason Garrett (offensive coordinator) regime is showing no signs of changing up the split in the workload between Jones and Marion Barber III. Philips has said that they want to get Jones the ball "as much as we can".

If that's not enough, Julius Jones is also playing for a new contract this year. He will be an unrestricted free agent, and the size of his future role, either with Dallas (or more likely elsewhere) will be based on how he plays in 2007 -- truly the best motivation for a hungry player.

Jones still always runs hard and has a fifth gear that most backs lack. He might only be a solid RB3 if Marion Barber continues to vulture TDs, but that's excellent value at his current ADP. He could improve from his 2006 numbers if the Cowboys do what Jones expects them to do and get him the ball on draws, screens and stretch plays that allow him to have better opportunity to break long runs.

"I think this system [allows] a back to have a little more freedom to make plays and do what I do," Jones said. "I'm excited about it and can't wait to get started."

Jones is excited, just as you should be if you can get him as your RB3 or RB4 in the seventh round of your draft.

Downside - by Mike Brown

For the early portion of his career, the potential of Julius Jones tantalized fantasy owners. Most felt that if he could just remain healthy, he'd be a sure-fire fantasy stud. In 2006, Jones did last a full schedule. All that was demonstrated is that he's serviceable, but nowhere near a superstar.

Jones actually started off the year fairly well, with at least 90 yards rushing in five of the first seven games (including three 100-yard games). He also scored three touchdowns over that timeframe. But over the last nine games of the year, Jones had just two games over 90 yards rushing and scored just one touchdown. He again showed his inability to convert short yardage carries, and Marion Barber III received the vast majority of the red zone and goal line touches.

As Barber proved more and more effective, Jones saw his fantasy points per game decrease for the third consecutive season. He wasn't even able to offset the lack of rushing touches in the passing game, since Barber is a far better receiver out of the backfield.

An offseason of trade rumors did nothing to quell suggestions that Jones, who will be a free agent after this season, is already being pushed out the door in favor of the more effective Barber.

Heading into this season, the durability concerns have been somewhat alleviated by Jones playing a full schedule, but Barber is still around. Jones will never relegate Barber to bench status, so Jones' upside is very limited.

For all the hype around Jones, he has never finished a season ranked higher than RB21. The current staff isn't tied to him in any way, and there are no guarantees of playing time. New HC Wade Phillips will simply play whichever back proves to be the more effective one. Considering Barber trumps Jones in yards per carry, goal line and short yardage rushing, receiving skills, and doesn't come with the durability issues of Jones, there's a better chance that Jones' fantasy totals actually decrease than increase in 2007.

The final nail in the coffin on Jones' fantasy prospects are that he's a victim of his own name. That is, there are still a handful of people out there who see Jones as a future stud running back. That means in order to acquire him, he'll need to be drafted as a borderline RB2 and several picks higher than other players with similar credentials and prospects. Yet using a moderately high pick on a player who seems destined to be nothing more than a fantasy backup doesn't seem like the wisest use of a draft pick.