Faceoff - RB Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted 7/19, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mike Brown

I almost feel badly for my counterpart here, who has to try and come up with negatives for Rudi Johnson. Johnson is, and has been for several years now, one of the best (and safest) first round running back options in the entire league.

He may try to tell you about how Johnson doesn't catch the ball. He might talk about how he doesn't have home-run rushing ability. He could discuss the selection of Kenny Irons as possibly being a threat to some of Johnson's carries. Well guess what -- they've been doing that for the past few years (with Chris Perry filling the Irons role), and yet here is Rudi Johnson once again expected to have a top-ten season at worst! In other words, any negatives that are in place against Johnson have actually been there for years. So we can agree that those variables won't affect him much more this year than they did in the past, right? So then why again is his situation any worse than a year ago? Has he aged ten years that no one told me about? Did he just break his leg prior to the writing of this piece? Did the Bengals just acquire Icky Woods? The answers to these questions, of course, are no, no, and no.

So enough about Johnson's non-downside. How about his upside?

As mentioned above, Johnson has been as consistent as they come since winning the RB job in Cincinnati. He has finished between RB7 and RB9 in each of the past three seasons, never posting fewer than 215 fantasy points and never more than 227. He has scored exactly twelve rushing touchdowns in each of the past three seasons as well, meaning his scoring chances and success ratio have remained extremely consistent (scoring touchdowns is often times the variable that tends to be a bit unpredictable and send a player's value wildly up or down from season to season).

Johnson has been the picture of health with the Bengals, and hasn't missed a game since 2004. He plays on one of the league's most high-powered offenses, which should be just about hitting its peak this year.

In other words, while Rudi Johnson is unlikely to exceed expectations by a ton, he's one of the absolute best players in the entire league to own because he may have a higher floor than anyone outside of the top three.

Downside - by Jason Wood

Rudi Johnson is a highly productive runner who has been a picture of consistency over that last three seasons. He's run for at least 1,300 yards and has scored 12 touchdowns in each season, on his way to back-to-back-to-back top-10 fantasy finishes. While I think Rudi could be in line for another solid season, you may want to consider taking someone else in the middle of the first round for a number of reasons.

One, Johnson is wearing down. Running backs have a finite shelf life and Johnson has taken a pounding over the last few seasons. Last year marked the third consecutive season he notched 330+ carries, and very few NFL runners have maintained that level of production for a fourth consecutive season. It's important to note that Johnsons' YPC last year fell to a paltry 3.8 (down from 4.3 in 2005), despite running behind one of the league's best lines.

Two, Eric Steinbach has left the building. LG Steinbach was a beast in run blocking, and his loss will impact Johnson more than anyone. Don't forget that Johnson's bread and butter is to run up the gut, something Steinbach played an essential role in executing.

Three, Johnson is an awful receiver. Any way you slice it, Johnson is one-dimensional. He's a powerful runner, but is a terribly mediocre receiver (career 5.4 YPR, 0 TDs, 23 receptions career high). Can you really afford to draft a one dimensional contributor in the first round while your league mates are taking guys that will push for 2,000 yards from scrimmage?

Four, Kenny Irons looks legit. Kenny Irons had a disappointing final season at Auburn, but has looked stellar in OTAs. The Bengals have been looking for someone to spell Johnson but couldn't keep Chris Perry healthy. Irons is healthy, and should take 30-50 touches away from Johnson at a minimum.

If you can grab Rudi Johnson in the second round, it's hard to argue against his value. But at his current ADP, you have to basically rely on Johnson duplicating his numbers of the last three seasons, and yet you still could find yourself short of what other league members are getting from their RB1. That's the antithesis of value, which means Rudi isn't someone you target haphazardly. Draft him only if he's the second part of your puzzle.