Faceoff - RB Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted 6/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Larry Johnson is the engine that makes the Chiefs' offense run. Since emerging from Priest Holmes' shadow during 2005, Johnson has posted two straight complete 16-game seasons and handled the football an impressive 457 times last season (416/1789/17 rushing -- an NFL record for carries in a season - and 41/410/2 receiving). He's been the second-best fantasy back in the land two years in a row and is only 27 years old -- he's healthy and entering the prime of his career.

His 457 touches of the football is a very heavy workload, but the Chiefs' head coach Herm Edwards stated May 30th that the team intends to get Johnson more involved in the passing game during 2007. "That's the next step in his development as a running back in this league: His ability to come out of the backfield running routes," Edwards said. "We need to get the ball to our backs a little more than we did last year. If you've got athletic players like Larry who can catch the ball out of the backfield, they can make plays. If he catches 60 passes...to me it's like an extended run. It's almost like a toss play."

There are reports that Michael Bennett will get a larger share of carries this season, but even though the coaching staff is said to want Bennett to see 100+ carries, the fact of the matter is he has only managed to amass 100+ carries one time during the last three seasons. During 2005 while in Minnesota, Bennett posted 126/473/3 rushing and 27/124/2 receiving. He carried the ball 36 times last season for 200 yards and caught 9/77/0 while appearing in 11 games. Frankly, I'm not worried about Bennett as a threat to eat significantly into Johnson's number of carries.

Johnson's yards-per-carry average did sink last year as the K.C. offensive line wasn't as overpowering as usual, but he still managed a very respectable 4.3 yards per carry. At 4.3 yards per carry, 350 carries would net Johnson somewhere in the neighborhood of 1500 yards (1505, actually). That's a pretty exclusive neighborhood among NFL running backs. Just five players (Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore and Tiki Barber) totaled 1500+ yards rushing last year, while Willie Parker just missed with 1494 yards rushing.

In fantasy football, we aim to draft players who will A) touch the football consistently week in and week out and B) generate yardage and TDs. Larry Johnson is very likely to have 400+ touches of the football again this year -- and that will translate into top-notch fantasy production for his lucky owners.

Downside - by Chris Smith

Ask me if Larry Johnson will be an impact player in fantasy football this season and my answer is

'Yes, of course he will be a great player in fantasy football in 2007'

Ask me however if Larry Johnson will perform at the level of his previous seasons, putting up monster fantasy numbers and I'd have to say

'There are many reasons to believe his numbers will take a sizable downwards turn this season'

Reasons for caution in 2007

1. Offensive line in Kansas City not as talented as in years past: Just two seasons ago, the Chiefs offensive line was considered the best in football. But having lost Willie Roaf and Will Shields in back-to-back seasons, the continuity and familiarity up front has deteriorated notably. Simply put, this unit is not as good as they once were, and Larry Johnson won't find the gaping holes he enjoyed in the previous seasons.
2. Quarterback unrest in Kansas City: With Trent Green off the Miami, who will be the quarterback? The untested Brodie Croyle or the experienced Damon Huard? This unsettled situation isn't helping the offense head in the right direction, and if the club does decide to go with Croyle, they are clearly looking at some growing pains from the youngster. Defenses won't be giving much respect to the passing game, instead loading up in the box to contain the running game. Add in the negative feelings in regards to the Chiefs treatment of long-time starter Green and this is a disaster waiting to happen.
3. Michael Bennett to see more carries: Last year, Larry Johnson carried the ball 416 times. That is too much and will eventually take its toll on any player. The Chiefs have a skilled backup in Michael Bennett and they plan on getting him around 100 carries this season. Those 416 carries last year were an NFL record.
4. Decreased production last season: Sure, Johnson finished as the second best fantasy running back in 2006, but there was some cause for concern. First of all was his YPC which dropped almost a full point from the previous season. He averaged just 4.3 YPC on the year which is a direct result of the weakening offensive line play. He also rushed for three less touchdowns despite 80 additional carries.

In conclusion, Johnson is too talented of a running back to expect a huge downward plunge this season but with the offensive line slippage, the uncertainty at quarterback and the rumors of Michael Bennett to eat into Larry Johnson's carries, Johnson should see a 10-15% dip in his fantasy production in 2007. He won't be the elite player he was in the previous two seasons although he'll certainly still be a RB1 in fantasy circles. I'd even go so far as to say there is potential here for an implosion that simply isn't worth the risk of a top-three pick this season. LaDainian Tomlinson, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson are all much safer picks in 2007.