Faceoff - WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals

Posted 7/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

True sharks will have noticed that T.J. Houshmandzadeh has caught and perhaps even surpassed Chad Johnson as the top wide receiver in the potent Bengals' offense. That may seem surprising to some people because Ocho Cinco still remains a top fantasy receiver and has ranked in the Top 5 three of the past four seasons. Johnson has outranked Houshmandzadeh the past two years, but delving into their statistics will illustrate that Houshmandzadeh actually has a better ppg average over the past 21 games in games where both players have been in the lineup together (in both standard scoring and 1 PPR scoring systems).

In that time (counting from Week 12 in 2005, the Bengals' playoff game that year, and all of 2006), here's how the numbers stack up (using average per game statistics) when both Houshmandzadeh and Johnson were in the lineup together:

• Houshmandzadeh - 6.2 receptions, 9.4 targets, 74 receiving yards, 0.714 TD, 11.78 fantasy points
• Johnson - 5.5 receptions, 9.9 targets, 82 receiving yards, 0.429 TD, 10.96 fantasy points

At that same scoring rate and projected over a full season, Houshmandzadeh would total 188 fantasy points to Johnson's 175 points. Last year, Houshmandzadeh would have ranked as the #3 WR while Johnson would have ranked tied as the #9 WR.

Looking at the FBG staff rankings, no one other than myself has Houshmandzadeh ranked ahead of Johnson. In fact, Johnson is ranked as the #1 or #2 wide receiver by 11 staffers and only one other FBG staff member has Houshmandzadeh ranked as high as 10th.

And I forgot to mention that Houshmandzadeh's statistical totals have increased every season including targets, receptions, TD, fantasy points, and year-end fantasy rankings. (His annual yardage total almost did the same thing with the only exception being one year where his yardage dipped by 22 yards.) Related to that, Chad Johnson's yearly totals have begun to drop off slightly with the emergence of Houshmandzadeh.

The fact of the matter is that Houshmandzadeh does not have to out produce Johnson to do better than his preseason ranking (currently 16th) or his draft position (currently WR 14). All he really needs to do to vault up the rankings is play in every game this year. He would have ranked as the #3 WR last year and as the #10 WR the season before if he had played in 16 games in both those seasons and scored at his average production rate in those two extra games each year.

Given that the numbers show that he continues to improve, the loss of teammate Chris Henry to suspension for half of the season, and QB Carson Palmer now being a year removed from knee surgery, all signs point to Houshmandzadeh having a banner season in 2007.

Biggest pick of the draft. Fifth pick, sixth round. T.J. Houshmazode. Yes, lock it up. T.J. Howsvanilla. T.J. Whosyourmomma. Put him on the board. Houshmazolli . . . Championship.

Downside - by Jason Wood

T.J. Houshmandzadeh deserves a lot of credit. After playing in Chad Johnson's shadow at Oregon State, he probably cringed at the thought of playing alongside him again in the pros. Yet, slowly but surely Housh has evolved into one of the league's better second receivers. Last year, he set career highs in catches (90), yards (1,081) and TDs (9) on route to an 11th place fantasy finish.

But here's the thing, you're better off letting someone else draft Houshmandzadeh this year, because he's fairly valued, at best, and may be overvalued according to his average draft position (WR13). For one, it's HIGHLY unusual for a team to produce two top-10 fantasy receivers, and as long as Chad Johnson is wearing Bengal orange, he's going to be the odds on choice to secure the top fantasy spot.

Second, Housh has missed time in each of the last two seasons and confirmed this February that he has FOUR cracked bones in his back. Apparently there is nothing that can be done to fix his bones, save for time and hope that he's not one big hit away from being out for a long time.

Third, Housh averaged a pedestrian 12.0 yards per carry last season, his 3rd consecutive season in decline. This wouldn't be alarming if the team, on the whole, changed its offensive philosophy but that certainly hasn't been the case.

At the end of the day, Houshmandzadeh is a talented NFL receiver that can help your fantasy team, IF you can draft him at the proper ADP. Unfortunately, people are expecting top-12 production from him when that's not likely for myriad reasons. At best, he matches his ADP; and you don't win your fantasy league by drafting players at fair value.