Faceoff - WR Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts

Posted 5/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Cecil Lammey

What's not to love about Marvelous Marvin Harrison? Entering his 12th season, the veteran from Syracuse knows exactly what it takes to be extremely productive in the NFL. For the fourth time in his career he ended the season as the #1 fantasy WR. He has finished in the top 10 every season since 1999. Despite being overlooked by some in favor of the likes of Terrell Owens or Chad Johnson on draft day, Harrison has displayed the type of consistency that savvy fantasy owners love. So how does he do it?

First and foremost, Harrison catches passes from the greatest QB in the game today, Peyton Manning. The two have an almost symbiotic relationship, often knowing what the other is thinking as the plays unfold. They work very hard together in the offseason and have perfected their timing on most every pass. Their rapport on the field only makes Harrison an even better receiver fantasy wise. When the play breaks down, or when Indianapolis really needs a play, it is Marvin Harrison that is called upon.

Secondly, Harrison knows how to keep his body in top shape. It's his tireless effort that allows him to stay healthy and productive throughout the season. It is very rare for him to take a direct hit, and this saves "mileage" on his body. He is getting a little long in the tooth, but there's no reason to think that he can't maintain this same level of production for at least a few more years.

Finally, Harrison is one of the best route runners in NFL history. He can contort his body in all sorts of directions. A CB cannot be tipped off by his shoulders or hips; Harrison runs every route the EXACT same way. He has the type of "sick quickness" that can't be taught. It is also worth mentioning that he has put up these incredible numbers despite playing opposite another #1 WR in Reggie Wayne. In the first round of the 2007 draft, the Colts decided to add another weapon to the passing game by drafting Anthony Gonzales out of Ohio State. Defenses are absolutely perplexed by the Indy passing game. Harrison can't be double-teamed, or Wayne will go crazy. However, even if double-teamed Harrison has the savvy to get open and catch the ball consistently. He may never get over 200 targets again, but he is a lock for around 90 receptions with 12-15 TDs as well.

Downside - by David Baker

Last year, Colts' WR Marvin Harrison had a resurgence of sorts with his most receptions and receiving yards since 2003. He also had the second highest average yards per reception of his career. He was second in the NFL in receiving yards, third in receptions and second in receiving touchdowns. So what's not to like?

Let's start with the most obvious problem. Age. Harrison will be 35 years old on opening day. Every player reaches an age where they no longer produce at the same clip. While I am not suggesting that Harrison is suddenly over the hill, the list of receivers who maintain production at the age of 35 is a short one. Father Time catches up to everyone, and to expect Harrison to continue to produce at an extraordinary level might be unreasonable. Around the age of 35, even the greatest receivers ever see their production begin to drop, in some cases dramatically. Cris Carter's first season after hitting 35 saw a decrease of 25-35% in receptions, yards and touchdowns. He would retire shortly thereafter. Tim Brown had a great year at the age of 35, but the following year his numbers dipped by 10 receptions, over 200 yards and seven touchdowns. Decreased production will happen; it's just a matter of when.

The Colts other starting wide receiver Reggie Wayne seems primed to become a number one wide out with career highs in receptions and yards last year. This could be the year that Wayne surpasses Harrison as the team's first option. Wayne is their future at wide receiver, and at 28 years old, he's entering his prime. The Colts very well might not want to overuse Harrison during the regular season as they are also aware that Harrison is getting older. They may choose to taper his production in consideration of not only the post season but for the next couple years too.

The Colts also used their first round draft pick on a wide receiver, Anthony Gonzalez out of Ohio State. After Harrison and Reggie Wayne, no other wide receiver on the Colts last year had more than eight receptions. While Gonzalez is unlikely to provide huge production this year, it seems likely that he'll have considerably more than eight catches, and those numbers could mean less for Harrison. And when the Colts used Brandon Stokley in 2004 and 2005, Harrison's receptions and yards dipped to their lowest output since 1998.

This exercise is not meant as a condemnation for Harrison's fantasy value in 2007. He is playing at a remarkable pace, and there's no reason why he won't have another excellent season. But I am wary of counting on Harrison for too much this year. Players eventually hit that wall when age begins to catch up with them. Is this the beginning of the end for Harrison? Probably not. But color me concerned for the first time ever about Harrison's current value.