Faceoff - DB Ken Hamlin, Dallas Cowboys

Posted 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Pasquino

So here's the thing about Ken Hamlin this year -- we just don't know what to expect. Let's be honest here -- we've heard about Dallas and their new svelte and speedy linebackers, and how Roy Williams is likely to be moving up in the box to make more of his big hits, but few are talking about the secondary. How are we supposed to know how Hamlin will be used in 2007?

Well, we have to think that Wade Phillips has a plan. He wants speed, and he wants an attacking defense. So that means that the three defensive backs (aside from Williams) will be left to defend against the passing game. That's a lot of responsibility thrown at his two starting corners, who did not light the world on fire last year. Both Terence Newman and Anthony Henry combined for decent tackle numbers (144), but minimal passes defensed (37) and a scant three interceptions.

Looking at the 2006 free safety starters, the combined totals were 51 tackles, 2 INTs and just six passes defensed. You can see why Dallas wanted to improve. Hamlin comes in to replace and demote Pat Watkins and Keith Davis, bringing a Top 12 finish amongst DBs from 2006 in Seattle with 96 tackles.

Forget all the stats and look at the defensive scheme. The Cowboys are bringing Williams up towards the line of scrimmage, so Hamlin will be playing more of a centerfield role most of the time this season. The question then becomes, will teams facing Dallas be more likely to throw (and throw deep) against the Cowboys?

Opposing teams will be going up top on the Dallas secondary to challenge them and force them to make plays. That plays right into the hand of Hamlin, who will be helping both Henry and Newman in coverage. When the Cowboys go up against the likes of Philadelphia (who led the league in 20+ yard plays last season), St. Louis, the Tiki-less Giants twice, Buffalo (with Lee Evans and questions at tailback), New England (Randy Moss), Green Bay, Detroit and Carolina, I can see many teams trying the deep ball several times a game. Add in his fantasy playoff schedule against three of these teams (at Detroit, Philadelphia and at Carolina Weeks 14-16).

We know that Hamlin can produce solid DB numbers. The questions are about the scheme and the opportunities. Given all the teams that Dallas will face that like to test the secondary, I can see Hamlin putting up solid numbers this year -- even if he doesn't quite get to 90+ tackles like last year. Questions about Hamlin will make him a nice pickup for fantasy owners who want to grab a safety late with good DB2 upside.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Any urge to draft Ken Hamlin should be ignored as a classic case of chasing last year's stats and role. Hamlin deserves a ton of credit after coming all the way back from a cracked skull and blood clot in his brain suffered in a fight outside a Seattle nightclub during the 2005 season. Hamlin posted the best fantasy season of his career in 2006. He tied career highs in total tackles and passes defended, and packed a big play punch of three interceptions, two sacks, and a forced fumble. This year, Hamlin has a new home in Dallas, and a new set of responsibilities, which should scare you off of spending a draft pick on him.

The writing is on the wall -- Wade Phillips wants to put Roy Williams in attack situations. The 3-4 run under Bill Parcells was not as aggressive as Phillips brand of the defense, and it often left Williams in situations where his shortcomings in coverage were exposed. The team has struggled to find the centerfielder needed to free Williams up to start regularly wreaking havoc and collecting pelts in run defense like he did back in his career (and rookie) year of 2001. Williams wasn't the only safety whose stats suffered in Parcells D. The safety opposite Williams - whether it was Pat Watkins, Keith Davis, Lynn Scott, or Tony Dixon -- just was not been able to make an fantasy impact by racking up tackles in run defense.

But wait. Hamlin excels in run defense. That's how he was such a fantasy force last year, putting up starting quality numbers (#12 DB in FBG scoring). None of the other safeties named were known as run stuffers. Ironically, this is yet another reason to be wary of Hamlin. The safety opposite Williams HAS to play well in deep coverage. Even if Phillips backs off and plays Williams in coverage as much as Parcells did, the other safety STILL has to be the primary coverage safety. So Hamlin's tendency to care more about blowing up opposing players than playing disciplined coverage could cause him to find the bench. Seattle replaced him with Deon Grant, a much more sound coverage safety. Dallas only hopes he's the answer -- they barely committed to Hamlin, with a modest one year, 2.5 million dollar deal. Pat Watkins was passable as a rookie last year, and has a more ideal profile as a centerfielder than Hamlin. If Hamlin gives up big plays like he did last year in Seattle, the team will have to consider giving Watkins, now a year more experienced, another shot at starting.

Hamlin's ability to remain a starting fantasy DB has been greatly compromised. Heck, his ability to remain a starter in any capacity is in danger. Someone drafting off of last year's stats will take him long before his name would come up on any forward looking cheatsheet.