Faceoff - WR D.J. Hackett, Seattle Seahawks

Posted 8/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Clayton Gray

One key to identifying emerging fantasy wide receivers is to identify talented players that will receive an increased amount of playing time. An easy way to do this is to look at the players still on a team that trades away their supposed best WR. Of course this perfectly describes the situation surrounding Hackett in Seattle.

The Set-up

When the Seahawks traded Jackson to the 49ers in exchange for a fourth round draft selection, they did so with the intention of inserting Hackett into the starting lineup. No significant addition was made at WR, so the team obviously will promote from within. While the team has played lip service to the notion that Hackett and Nate Burleson are battling to start opposite Deion Branch, it has been Hackett that has lined up with the #1 unit every time they take the field.

The Seahawks Passing Game

Since Matt Hasselbeck became the fulltime starter in 2002, the Seahawks have finished as follows in passing yards and passing TDs:

• 4th in passing yards / 20th in passing TDs
• 7th in passing yards / 5th in passing TDs
• 14th in passing yards / 13th in passing TDs
• 14th in passing yards / 5th in passing TDs
• 18th in passing yards / 5th in passing TDs

It's hard to find many teams that consistently finish among the top half of the league year in and year out. Seattle is such a team, and they will continue to be one as long as Mike Holmgren is around. Branch has been given plenty of opportunities to produce in his five-year career, but he has yet to surpass the 1000-yard mark or catch more than five TDs in a season. He simply isn't talented enough to consistently beat opposing CB1s. It will fall on Hackett to produce. When Seattle traded Darrell Jackson, they basically announced that Hackett was ready for the job.

Downside - by Mike Brown

Sure, D.J. Hackett has a lot of talent and subsequently, a lot of upside. But at this point, that's really all that he is.

For all of his abilities (or at least his perceived abilities), Hackett simply may not have the opportunity to put up gaudy numbers. Or for that matter, decent ones. How is it that a player who isn't even assured of a starting spot on his own team at this point warrant a starting spot in a fantasy lineup? The projections of 900-1000 yards and 8 touchdowns seem to be fully on the high end of his potential scale, and that's if the Seattle offense rebounds fully from what it was a year ago and everything clicks just right. For what it's worth, not one of our experts who makes projections sees the Seattle offense throwing for more than 3,700 yards (with most considerably lower than that total). That's a nice total, but nowhere near the level it'd take for a WR3 on his own team to put up significant stats.

So let's assume that Hackett does win a starting job, which is by no means assured at this point after only a handful of good games at the end of last year. Even if he is in the lineup from day one, he hasn't proven that he's capable of sustaining good production over the course of an entire season, or even half of one. He had a nice stretch, no question, but the problem with a guy who shows flashes at a young age is that there are typically a handful of owners who will not just hope for a breakout year, but will actually expect it. That means instead of relying on Hackett as a young skills guy with the potential to excel at some point in the season, there are those who will jump the gun on him and take him ahead of, say, Devery Henderson, Brandon Marshall, Isaac Bruce, the list goes on and on of established guys who are pretty well assured of substantial playing time and good stats on their own -- and in far better situations to boot.

Hackett hasn't proved anything other than he can put up 600+ yards and four touchdowns, yet the "smart money" is on him being one of a handful of bust-out players in 2007. Well, do you really want to spend that eighth round pick to find out whether he's the next T.J. Houshmandzadeh while realizing he could just as easily go the other way and be the next Brandon Lloyd? You have to risk a fairly high pick just to find that out, when there are guys with just as high an upside that can be found several rounds later.