Faceoff - RB Ahman Green, Houston Texans

Posted 5/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Chris Smith

I'm actually surprised that more folks aren't on the Ahman Green bandwagon this year as a dependable RB2 in fantasy leagues. Green is coming off of a nice comeback season in which he rushed for 1,059 yards and finished as RB15 in fantasy leagues despite missing two games. Green has moved over to the Texans organization, and there are many reasons to be optimistic in regards to his production this season.

Reasons for optimism:

1. Past production: Take away the 2005 season when injury struck, and Green has been a top-fifteen running back in fantasy circles six straight times. Included in those six years are three top-five seasons as well.
2. Superb ability: Green has incredible vision which helps him to quickly make decisions and hit holes with conviction. He still has his quickness and ability to cut without slowing down. One of the more elusive backs in the league, he also has the ability to explode through tackles and at 213 pounds is not an easy running back to bring down once the ball is in his hands.
3. Excellent receiver: One skill that has made Green so special over the years is his tremendous skills in the passing game. He has soft hands and runs very nice pass routes for a running back. He has averaged a shade under 55 receptions per season in his last six healthy campaigns.
4. Nose for the endzone: Green has reached the endzone 67 times in his last six healthy seasons. He has the ability to make a cut and explode through a hole making his difficult to stop short of the goalline.
5. Texans offensive line: Many casual fans believe the Texans' offensive line is a joke. That statement is completely inaccurate and misleading. The Texans have had serious issues in regards to pass protection over the years, but in terms of run blocking have actually been one of the more consistent offensive lines in football. This unit led RB Domanick Williams (formerly Davis) to three good fantasy seasons (14th, 5th, and 17th).
6. Clear #1 option in the backfield: Ahman Green will be competing for touches with Ron Dayne and Wali Lundy. Dayne is a dependable veteran player but will likely be used to spell Green and should see about 6-8 carries per game. Lundy had his chance to shine last season when the Texans handed him the keys, but he couldn't get out of first gear and likely will be an afterthought this season

The bottom line is Ahman Green is a proven commodity and is headed to a better situation than most realize. The Texans offensive line is a good run blocking unit, the scheme is pretty good, and Green has enough gas left in the tank to finish as a top-fifteen running back once again in 2007. He will make some fantasy owner happy as a RB2 and ecstatic as a RB3.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Ahman Green's glory days are behind him and he has been saddled with a huge downgrade in offensive quality. If you're tempted to pull the trigger on Green in the fourth or fifth round, think twice. There are better values later on among the good old veteran options at RB. There are younger RBs available in the fourth or fifth that offer much more upside. When it's time to decide whether to add Green to your team, chances are the best answer will be to pass.

A closer examination of Green and his surroundings reveals more reasons for pessimism than optimism. For most of his career, Green has enjoyed running against defenses that needed to contend with Brett Favre. This year, he joins a team whose starting QB has thrown a grand total of 161 passes in his career. Matt Schaub might hit the ground running like Tony Romo or Philip Rivers because, like them, he has been priming for this opportunity for years, but it's safest to assume that he will struggle, allowing defenses to key on Green.

The defense has many holes and will likely have trouble keeping the Texans in the game, another crucial element in generating momentum for the running game. Ron Dayne and Wali Lundy were the two leading rushers for Houston in 2006, and they got over ¼ of their yards when the Texans were trailing big. Green's age and injury history dictates that the Texans should pull him once the game gets out of hand, which will probably happen more often than any Texans fan would want to admit.

Green has a lot to overcome, but few of his personal indicators are pointing in the right direction. He's 30, his 2005 was cut short by a ruptured quadriceps tendon, and his 2006 was marred by a hamstring injury that cost him three games. Green was effective at first when he returned from the injury, but he struggled in the second half of the season, with a 3.4 yards per carry average, only one game over 80 yards rushing, and two TDs - even though the Packers went 5-3 during that stretch. Green was wearing down, battling knee soreness and requiring mid-week rest to stay fresh for the game.

In the fourth/fifth round, RBs like DeAngelo Williams, Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Jacobs, and Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) offer more upside than Green with similar risk. Fred Taylor and Warrick Dunn will come off the board a full round after Green, if not more, offer the same track record of reliable production, and are in better offenses. Green Bay is making a push for final Super Bowl run with Brett Favre. They passed on Green -- which is probably the wise thing to do in fantasy drafts this year.