Faceoff - TE Daniel Graham, Denver Broncos

Posted 7/31, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

Daniel Graham comes to Denver after signing a massive free agent contract (five years, $30 million). He twice ranked in the Top 12 in New England but dipped the past two seasons with Ben Watson playing a greater role in the offense and Graham taking on more of a blocking tight end role. His current ADP reveals that he is being drafted as the #21 tight end off the fantasy draft board, but he could very easily jump back into the limelight this season and put up starting fantasy TE numbers.

One of the reasons Graham was not a fantasy force with the Patriots was due to their scheme. The Pats frequently rotated in several tight ends and even used defensive players at the goal line for TD receptions. Collectively, the team's tight ends still did not produce a ton of fantasy production. Last year was a statistical anomaly for New England with the emergence of Ben Watson, but in all the other years Bill Belichick coached New England the team TE corps averaged 51 receptions, 548 receiving yards, and seven TD (97 fantasy points).

Last year's tight end production in Denver was also a historical irregularity. In the 11 seasons that Mike Shanahan coached the Broncos before last year, Denver tight ends as a group averaged 81 receptions, 947 receiving yards, and seven TD (137 fantasy points). Clearly the Broncos have utilized their tight ends much more than New England has--an indication that Graham will see a significant boost in his production.

Graham's competition at tight end is sophomore Tony Scheffler, who hauled in several Jay Cutler TD passes at the end of last season but overall did not produce great fantasy numbers over the entire season. Scheffler broke his foot at mini camp this year and has been placed on the training camp PUP list. There have also been reports that Assistant Coach Mike Heimerdinger has said that he thinks Graham will get 55 receptions this year.

By comparison, last year's #21 tight end posted 22 receptions, 231 receiving yards, and four TD (47 fantasy points). Graham should easily be able to outclass those numbers. As the 210th player drafted, he's an excellent choice for those that prefer to stock up on other positions and take tight ends late.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Daniel Graham got a big payday from the Broncos and for good reason -- he's one of the best two-way TEs in the league. Don't mistake a change in the number of zeroes in Graham's bank account for a change in his fantasy relevance. While he is a better than average receiver as a tight end, he remains the second best receiving option at the position on his team.

Daniel Graham was drafted in the first round by the Patriots because of his excellent all around game. He's the rare tenacious blocker that is also athletic enough to do damage out when he's asked to run a pattern. Graham's fantasy value peaked in 2003 and 2004. He posted top 12 fantasy seasons despite limited targets. Graham was easily more talented than his partner in 2 TE sets, Christian Fauria, and he became one of Tom Brady's preferred targets in the red zone. The Patriots spent another first round pick on a tight end in 2004 -- the ultra-athletic Ben Watson, who projected to be a more dangerous weapon than Graham. Once Watson got healthy in 2005, he relegated Graham to the lesser of the receiving options at TE. Graham's targets, receptions, and touchdowns were at about half of their 03/04 levels in 05/06.

Graham's place in the pecking order is unlikely to change in 2007. The Broncos drafted Tony Scheffler in the 2nd round last year, and like Watson, Scheffler is the better weapon of the two in the passing game. Scheffler did break his foot in May, but the latest reports have him running and likely back to full speed for the beginning of the season. It also looks like Scheffler may hit the two month recovery projection, denying Graham the chance to get the bulk of training camp reps with Jay Cutler. This is important because Cutler already seemed to have a mind meld with Scheffler, while Graham has only been his teammate for less than a half a year. The one door to Graham's fantasy relevance in 2007 is closing quickly.

Barring a setback to Scheffler, Graham is relegated to second fiddle once again. He was a very underrated free agent pickup for Denver, but he's an overrated fantasy TE in the wake of Scheffler's injury, and he will soon fade back into pack of waiver wire TEs for desperate owners, his home since 2005. Don't spend a pick on him just to toss him back into that pool a few weeks into the season.