Faceoff - WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Posted 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

I am positively ecstatic about Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy prospects for the upcoming season. Here we have a player who has delivered 13.7 yards per reception like clock-work in his three year career, finally catching the ball from a quarterback with some actual talent and gas left in the tank. Due to Fitzgerald missing 3 games last year in the middle of the season, many of your fantasy league's co-owners may be looking at his 2006 season and determining that Larry Fitzgerald has peaked. Do not make the same mistake.

This season, the Cardinals have a new head coach, former Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. The team also has a new left tackle in Levi Brown. While changes can sometimes be a hindrance to a player's production, I think that both of these things will improve Larry Fitzgerald's performance. Whisenhunt's offense in Pittsburgh routinely got the most out of its players, and a new tackle will help protect the team's quarterback and create holes for Edgerrin James where there previously have been none. What's not to like?

As for Larry Fitzgerald, he has averaged a touchdown every ten catches since entering the league, and that was catching the ball from Shaun King, Josh McCown, an old Kurt Warner, and a rookie in Matt Leinart. With Matt under center last season, he caught 44 passes for 610 yards and 4 touchdowns in eight games. Over a full season, that would be 88 receptions, 1210 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Now, factor in that Leinart and the team as a whole should be improved and it's easy to think that Larry Fitzgerald could easily post numbers similar to 2005 when he had 100 receptions, 1400 yards, and 10 touchdowns.

The crazy part is that Larry Fitzgerald's current Average Draft Position (ADP) shows he can had at the top of the 3rd round, meaning you could likely select two starting running backs and then still get one of the best receivers in the league. And unlike some of the receivers being selected ahead of Fitzgerald like Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens, it's reasonable to think that we have not yet seen the best of Larry Fitzgerald.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

In three years in the NFL, Larry Fitzgerald has seen his end of season fantasy wide receiver rankings (Footballguys standard scoring format) go from 30th in his rookie year of 2004, to 2nd in 2005, back down to 24th in 2006. What happened in 2005 to give Fitzgerald such impressive numbers? Perhaps the answer is his Quarterback? In 2005, the Cardinals were led by two-time MVP and passing extraordinaire Kurt Warner. Say what you want about Warner's fall from grace after leaving St. Louis, but the numbers in this situation suggest Fitzgerald was a more productive WR with Warner at QB, compared to anyone else under center. Fitzgerald's running mate, Anquan Boldin also experienced a similar trend in fantasy numbers over those three years from 2004-2006 (59th, 8th, 17th). This suggests that Warner played a key role in determining the fantasy production from his receivers.

An excerpt from the Footballguys Fantasy Football 2007 Strategy Guide (using Footballguys standard scoring format) states the following statistic:

• In 15 games with Warner at QB: Fitzgerald averaged 12.25 fantasy ppg
• In 30 games with other QBs: Fitzgerald averaged 9.13 fantasy ppg
• In 7 games with Leinart at QB: Fitzgerald averaged 9.7 fantasy ppg

Matt Leinart averaged 1 TD pass for every 231 yards passing in 2006 Kurt Warner averaged 1 TD pass for every 246 yards passing in 2005

Fairly similar numbers, in fact Warner had a worse ratio of TD passes to passing yards. This suggests that the two QBs were producing similar numbers, but for whatever reason, Fitzgerald produced more with Warner - 103 receptions in 2005 vs. only 69 receptions in 2006.

Fitzgerald vs. Boldin - Who's the better fantasy pick?

• Receptions in the last 2 years: Boldin 185, Fitzgerald 172
• Touchdowns in the last 2 years: Fitzgerald 16, Boldin 11
• Targets in the last 2 years: Boldin 323, Fitzgerald 273
• Receiving yards in the last 2 years: Boldin 2605, Fitzgerald 2355
• Fantasy points in the last 2 years: Fitzgerald 336, Boldin 334
• Games played: Boldin 30, Fitzgerald 29
• Fantasy Points per game: Boldin 11.13, Fitzgerald 11.58

They're nearly identical - Fitzgerald is currently ranked as the 7th best WR, while Boldin is the 12th. Why use an earlier pick to grab Fitzgerald when you can get identical or similar numbers from a later pick?

New coaching staff could mean an increase in rushing numbers. The Cardinals added former Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as head coach this offseason as well as former OL coach Russ Grimm as the Assistant Coach. Both coaches thrive on the running game, especially Whisenhunt, who was paramount in creating the Steelers strong rushing offense that yielded 483 carries to RBs in 2005 with only 375 pass attempts.

Could the same run first strategy occur in the desert in 2007? Last I knew, the coaches called the plays. We'll see, but the likelihood that Fitzgerald reaches his 2005 numbers again is slim to none, in my opinion. I'm guessing his end of season wide receiver ranking for 2007 will be between 20 and 35. That is not going to warrant an early round pick on this receiver.