Faceoff - QB Brett Favre, Green Bay Packers

Posted 7/26, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

Brett Favre is one of my favorite sleepers this year, and many years gone by. Favre finished 2006 as the eighth ranked QB. Last year, he had a new coaching staff, only one WR (Driver) to play most of the season, a young offensive line, and Favre still produced at a high level. Coming off of the QB8 finish in 2006, many would think he would be valued as a Top 10 QB in 2007. That assumption would be wrong. Favre has an ADP of QB16, player 100 overall, and an average ranking among the Footballguys.com staff of QB15. This screams value to me.

Brett Favre is a QB that has never finished lower than QB13 since becoming a starter for the Green Bay Packers in 1992. During this time, Favre has missed exactly ONE game. This type of durability is unmatched. He led the NFL in passing attempts last year and is a favorite to repeat the distinction. For the last two years, Favre had over 600 passing attempts. With so many passes, the potential for a great season is always there.

With the drafting of James Jones, a healthy Greg Jennings, and the venerable Donald Driver, the Packers have plenty of offensive weapons for Favre. Ahman Green is now a Houston Texan, so the Packer offense will lean on its Hall of Fame quarterback even more. The Green Bay offense will have two unproven running backs, Vernand Morency and Brandon Jackson, to keep the pressure off of Favre. Will the running game be viable? The uncertainty of the Packer backs will probably lead to even more passing attempts for Brett Favre than most predict. This should enable him to exceed all expectations. Another Top 10 finish is well within reach.

For the quarterback who will be 38 years old by midseason, the 2007 season may be his swan song. Brett Favre will want to end his career with a great season. When you are preparing for your draft, remember you can get a top quarterback in the eighth or ninth round. Nothing says value in fantasy drafts like Brett Favre. He will help many fantasy teams win championships in 2007.

Downside - by Chris Smith

Brett Favre has had a remarkable career. In fact you can even say that Favre is one of the best quarterbacks to have ever played in the NFL. He has been going strong since 1992 and currently holds the NFL record for most career completions. He is also likely to break Dan Marino's career passing attempt and passing touchdown records this season and could break the career passing yards mark with a great season. When breaking down his chances for success this season however, I am a little leery. In fact in many ways I look at Favre and see Marino's final season with the Dolphins when the wheels finally fell off the track. I'll illustrate reasons to look elsewhere for your fantasy quarterback below.

Reasons for concern in 2007

1. Age has become a factor: Brett Favre will be 38 years of age this season, the same age as Dan Marino was when his career came to an end. Other star quarterbacks who hit the wall at age 38 include Steve Young, John Elway, Fran Tarkenton and Joe Montana. In addition a number of great quarterbacks under the age of 38 retired as well including Boomer Esiason, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman and Drew Bledsoe. It is pretty obvious that many quarterbacks hit the wall around this age and it becomes a crapshoot whether the player can stand up to the test of time.
2. Statistics have gone south: Favre has finished as the 8th and 13th best fantasy quarterback over the past two years but that is due to (a) tossing an inordinate number of passes (1,220) and staying healthy. His fantasy PPG has been quite pedestrian over that span. In fact he has only finished as the 13th and 20th best quarterback in fantasy PPG (minimum five games played). He has only averaged one touchdown pass every 32 attempts since the 2005 season began which is a far cry from his one touchdown pass every 18.6 attempts prior to the 2005 campaign. Another sign of age catching up to Favre is his completion percentage and YPA dropping considerably over the last three years.
3. Law of averages: Favre legendary streak of good health is the equal of any record in football. He has started every game since he became the starting quarterback in 1992. That is an impressive streak which is a testament to both Favre's toughness and his luck to avoid a major injury. However at 38-years of age, there is a good chance that the Wheel of Luck will turn and injuries will catch up to him.

Final Thoughts

I have to admit that the reason I am leery of Brett Favre this season is as much a gut check as anything. With the steady weakening of his statistics, his age and the talent at quarterback around the league, I just don't see enough upside to warrant drafting Favre any higher than the 12th round this season. There are better quarterbacking options out there in 2007.