Faceoff - WR Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills

Posted 8/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Chris Smith

Last year Lee Evans had an outstanding season and finished seventh at the receiver position which is remarkable considering he had the inexperienced J.P. Losman throwing him the ball. Evans is entering his fourth season and appears to have all his ducks lined up in a row for the upcoming season

Reasons for Optimism in 2007

1. Great all-around receiving skills: Evans is an explosive player on the field. He isn't that tall but has long arms and incredible quickness. He can cut full speed on a dime and is great at creating separation between himself and defenders. He is also fairly strong for a receiver and can break through tackles once the ball is in his hands.
2. Nose for the endzone: In his first three NFL seasons, Evans has scored 24 touchdowns on just 178 receptions. Scoring a touchdown once every 7.4 receptions displays a true desire to score once the endzone is in his sight.
3. Good chemistry between Evans and Losman: Last year was anybody's guess how new starting quarterback Losman and Evans would work together on the field. Fast forward to this season and there is no questioning the chemistry the two players have developed. Evans is the clear-cut first option in the passing game and Losman will look his way often throughout the season.
4. Terrific YPC: One of the overlooked stats from the great receivers is YPC. Evans has the ability to stretch the opposition both in terms of the deep pass and running away from defenders once the ball is in his hands. He hasn't had less than 15.5 YPC for a season in his first three years.
5. Team talent at WR: Now don't get me wrong here. Roscoe Parrish, Peerless Price and Josh Reed are not going to make Bills fans forget former great Bills receivers such as Andre Reed. However there is just enough talent on the field besides Evans to keep defenses honest. Evans will still face some double teams but defenses could be burned if they frequently roll the safety over to contain Evans.

There is no doubt that Evans mix of natural ability, quickness, power, and heart make him one of the more dangerous receivers in the NFL today. He can burn defenses on deep fly routes yet is also gifted enough once the ball is in his hands to take a five-yard crossing pattern in from 70 yards out. Can he improve on last season's 82 receptions, 1,292 receiving yard and eight touchdowns? Perhaps not but there is little reason to believe he can't post numbers similar to those in 2007. Expect more of the same from this talented player.

Downside - by Jeff Pasquino

Lee Evans finished amongst the top fantasy wide receivers in 2006, but there are a few reasons for fantasy owners to be concerned for 2007. First of all, the loss of RB Willis McGahee will impact the entire offense. With rookie RB Marshawn Lynch either as the starter or in a committee role with RB Anthony Thomas, the opposition has less incentive to emphasize the run defense in favor of pass coverage. The uncertainty in the Bills' backfield will allow their opposition to double a stud receiver more often, and that will directly impact Evans.

Another concern is QB J.P. Losman. Yes, Losman did well last season in his first complete year, but he did only amass 19 touchdowns and barely achieved 3,000 passing yards. Losman targeted Evans 137 times, nearly twice as often as the secondary Buffalo receiver (Peerless Price). No other Bill had 50 or more targets, which should be a concern. Who will be drawing coverage away from Evans this season?

Evans only found the end zone eight times last season despite all the attention he received from Losman. It seems that Evans becomes less of a target in the Red Zone, and that holds water if you look at the numbers. After scoring a five yard touchdown in Week 5 against the Bears, it took until Week 9 for Evans to find the end zone again. Further, he had just four targets inside the opposing 20 yard line all year. Evans was absolutely a home run type wide receiver, scoring from 20+ yards seven times and five from 40+, but the inconsistency would be enough to drive a fantasy team owner mad.

Lastly, I will mention the difficult schedule Buffalo faces this year -- not just the teams, but also the pass defenses. New England, Miami and the Jets are all tough divisional foes, but Denver, Dallas, Baltimore and Jacksonville are also on the slate. It could be a challenge for Evans to match his 2006 production levels this year.