Faceoff - WR Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers

Posted 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Donald Driver has caught 80+ passes for 1200+ yards and high single-digit TDs in each of his last 3 seasons, playing a full 16 game slate all 3 years, and never finishing worse than #13 at his position in fantasy terms during that time span. He is securely atop the depth chart in Green Bay, with 2nd-year man Greg Jennings currently residing at the #2 WR position (if Koren Robinson is re-instated by the NFL and wows the coaching staff he might challenge Jennings for playing time). Bubba Franks has faded as a receiving threat at TE, and Donald Lee is not a top-tier talent either. Driver is the clear-cut, top receiver in Green Bay -- and being the favorite target for Brett Favre, a perennial top-10 fantasy QB, is far from a bad thing. Favre had a "down season" last year with only 18 pass TDs and 18 interceptions and still finished #8 among fantasy signal callers. Favre has passed for 3881 yards or more in each of his last 3 NFL campaigns.

Driver put up his best season to date last year with 92/1295/8 - finishing 5th among fantasy WRs (he went to the Pro Bowl for the NFC). Last season, Driver was very consistent, catching 3 or more passes in every game except week 11 (when he snagged 2/42/0). He also snagged 3 or more passes in 15 out of 16 games during the 2005 season, and 3 or more passes in 14 out of 16 games during 2004.

Driver is healthy entering 2007, and although he is 32 this year his durability over the past 3 years speaks for itself. Driver is as close as a fantasy owner can get to a sure bet for a top-10 fantasy season at his position this year -- grab him in your draft and smile.

Downside - by David Yudkin

If I were down on Driver (and I'm not) here would be some reasons for concern.

• Brett Favre's skills and production have slowly been eroding, and even with back-to-back seasons with 600+ passing attempts his totals have been slipping. Favre was once a decent bet to have 4,000 passing yards and 30 TD passes. He's now had 4,000 passing yards once in the past seven seasons and dipped below 20 TD for the first time last year in 13 years.
• If the sun finally is starting to set on Favre, the team might opt to see what they have in the future by getting Aaron Rogers some playing time. Breaking in a new QB frequently results in lower production for stud receivers.
• Greg Jennings poses a serious threat to Driver's targets. A healthy Jennings posted 20-364-3 over the first month of the season before getting dinged up (on track for 64-1164-10 = 176 points over a full season). In those games, Driver only put up 26-343-1 and was on pace for 83-1098-3 (128 points over a full season), so a healthy Jennings was actually out producing Driver in the early going.
• Even without Ahman Green around, the Pack could still have a solid rushing attack. With two healthy and seemingly capable backs in Vernand Morency and Brendon Jackson, Green Bay may look to run more. If the speculation that the Packers are interested in acquiring Larry Johnson came to fruition that would dramatically change the complexion of the team. Any play that doesn't go to Driver would serve to limit his targets and by extension reduce his numbers.

With Driver's preseason ranking and ADP right around WR10, even a minor drop off production wise could plummet Driver down the year-end rankings with many receivers scoring in a tightly compressed bandwidth. There's little margin for error this year and there's a decent chance that he won't live up to expectations this year.