Faceoff - RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

Drew had an outstanding rookie season by all accounts. He finished the 2006 season as the eighth ranked running back. This is amazing since he only had two rushing attempts in each of the first two games. Let's think about this for a moment. A rookie comes in and is a top eight back despite not playing much in the first two games. To put this into perspective, outside of the first two games of the season, Drew scored the same amount of points as Frank Gore. The rookie performed as a top five back for the last fourteen weeks of the season. That is amazing.

Most detractors point to Drew splitting carries with Fred Taylor, and possibly Greg Jones, as a negative for 2007. But, in reality, Drew only had twenty carries in two games in 2007. He still averaged almost 100 total (rushing and receiving) yards per game in the last fourteen games. In addition, Drew was a very consistent scorer considering not getting consistent carries each game. In only two games since week three did Drew have fewer than ten points, and in those he had 8.5 and 9.7. Those games were in the first half of the season. He had a great finish to the season.

In 2007, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the easiest schedule in the entire NFL according to Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule. The main threat to carries for Drew is Fred Taylor. But, Taylor just turned 31 years old. The Jaguars' offense needs Maurice Jones-Drew to have a good 2007 season, and he will not disappoint. Lame duck quarterback, Byron Leftwich, leads the Jag offense and his hold on the position is tenuous by many accounts. The receivers leave much to be desired. This offense will rely on its diminutive playmaker in 2007.

Drew is being drafted as fifteenth back off the board and player nineteen overall. That is an absolute steal for a young running back that flashed greatness in his rookie season and was a top five back during the last fourteen games of the season.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Maurice Jones-Drew was a blast to watch last year, and he was a blast to have on your fantasy team. He finished as a top 10 fantasy back, but many signs indicate that Jones-Drew hit his ceiling last year. There will be a few owners in every league who think just the opposite, that he is just getting started, and they will take him in the first round. While MJD is a great RB2 to start behind a stud RB1, he is not the kind of player you want to build your team around.

Jones-Drew had a ridiculous run of getting to the end zone after barely touching the ball in the first two games. He scored in twelve of the remaining fourteen games, and tallied fifteen total touchdowns (13 rush, 2 rec). He should get a chance to post at least 8-10 touchdowns this year because he proved himself to be an excellent goal line runner. Greg Jones is looking good so far in training camp and could end up being a threat to Jones-Drew's goal line touches, but he will certainly have trouble replicating MJD's 60% conversion rate on carries inside the five.

While Jones-Drew should still convert a good amount of TDs, how does he separate from guys like Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber, both of whom are going rounds later? Jones-Drew showed he can handle feature back touches last year when Fred Taylor was banged up, but so did Marion Barber in 2005. The Jaguars did not pay Fred Taylor five million dollars in the offseason to be Jones-Drew's backup. Clearly, they like workload split they employed for most of 2006, with Taylor getting 15-20 carries, and MJD getting around 15 total touches. While MJD is explosive enough to do more with those touches than most backs, his touchdown streak hid the risk of starting a player with his role. He was usually around 60-80 total yards a game before Taylor got banged up. Three of his five weeks over 100 total yards were in games where Taylor was limited, or did not play at all. Unlike the other backs going around MJD in fantasy drafts, when MJD doesn't score, he is unlikely to contribute more than RB3 numbers. While his ability to break long plays and get most of the short yardage TDs mitigates the risk enough to justify a late 2nd/early 3rd round pick, you'll have to take Jones-Drew in the late first/early second to get him in most drafts, and that is too early to make such a bold pick. Yes, Reggie Bush is going even earlier, but unlike MJD, he has a #1 WR kind of presence in the passing offense, which creates more consistency in his fantasy output. Jones-Drew is a great RB2 if you land a reliable back like Willie Parker or Rudi Johnson as your #1, but he's not worthy of a pick as your #1 this year.