Faceoff - QB Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers

Posted 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

I agree that Jake Delhomme did not have a good season last year, at least not to his standards or what we've become accustomed to seeing from Jake. For the first year in his four year tenure as starter in Carolina, he failed to reach 3000 yards passing and 20 TD passes. In his first three years as starter in Carolina, Jake finished 15, 7 and 12 respectively in fantasy QB rankings. Last year, Delhomme played only 13 games, due to ligament damage in his right, throwing thumb. He totaled 2805 yds, 17 TDs and 11 INTs. A far cry from his previous average of 3508 yds and 24 TDs.

So why the down year in 2006? Outside of the injured thumb, that is. I think a lot of the reason behind Delhomme's down year was due to the major injuries to Travelle Wharton and Justin Hartwig on the offensive line. The loss of these two with not a lot of depth to compensate for their loss, resulted in a running game that struggled as well as a passing game that could not find consistency. The Panthers had an NFL low 31.1 3rd down conversion percentage. Without the ability to consistently move the ball, several drives were stopped, which of course meant fewer scores. It's no wonder why the Panthers were the 6th worst in points ( 16.9) scored per game. The belief that was uncovered about former OC Dan Henning and his predictable snap counts was just the icing on the cake for a disappointing season for the Carolina Panthers.

So how does this translate to a productive 2007 campaign? The offensive line is healthy and more importantly deeper than last year. The addition of Jeff Davidson as offensive coordinator and his new zone blocking scheme appears to cater to the strengths of their skill positions. The emergence of DeAngelo Williams, a very capable RB that has yet to put his mark on the NFL is looming on the horizon. The addition of rookie college standout Dwayne Jarrett and the growing experience of Drew Carter will be nice compliments to an always dangerous Steve Smith. When the Panthers offense is clicking, they are hard to beat. If that's the case, one can be sure that Jake Delhomme and his numbers will surely benefit. There is a lot of optimism surrounding the Panthers as training camp approaches. The Falcons have suffered in the early going with their recent shortcomings and with two wins against New Orleans in a down season last season, one can only think that Carolina has a shot at winning the NFC South.

The Numbers: In Delhomme's first three years as starter in Carolina, he averaged 3508 yds passing and 24 TDs. Compare those numbers to a QB in 2006 who had similar numbers... 3529 yds passing, 24 TDs was none other than Tom Brady. So basically, remove last year from Delhomme's average and you've got the production of Tom Brady last year - not too shabby.

Don't worry about David Carr - Former 1st overall pick, David Carr was signed in the off-season, but don't believe for a minute that the Panthers want to replace Delhomme with Carr. Carolina's backup QB situation prior to the signing was weak at best and now they have insurance. Nothing more, nothing less. Delhomme would have to bomb miserably for Carr to see action. Nothing to see here. This is still Delhomme's offense.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

Jake Delhomme made a stunning ascent from obscure backup quarterback to Super Bowl XXXVIII starter in 2003. He made the Panthers look very smart for signing him, and in the next two years, he made his fantasy owners look very smart for drafting him. The 2006 season saw Delhomme "hit the wall", missing time due to injury for the first time since he became a starter and posting the lowest yards per attempt of his career. Delhomme has now joined the ranks of fantasy backups. While he presents some value as a backup, he can no longer be trusted to be a starter for your fantasy team.

Jake Delhomme has been such a success as an unheralded backup turned starter that his name has almost become a synonym for that phenomenon. What he did in 2003 was nothing short of a revelation for the Panthers, but his magic seemed to run out in 2006. The theme of Delhomme's 2006 was "doing less with more". He was attempted 33 passes a game, a rate that matched his career season of 2004. In 13 games, he only attempted four less passes while playing all 16 games in 2005, and actually completed one more pass than he did 2005. While his attempts and completion were level, Delhomme's yardage and TDs declined at an alarming rate. His yardage was down almost 20%, and his TD passes were down almost 30%.

In addition to becoming a much less efficient quarterback in 2006, Delhomme also faltered in the clutch too often for comfort. Delhomme's gritty gunslinger style had produced some shining moments at crucial junctures in the past. His mojo seemed to run out last year. Three times, Delhomme threw interceptions in the opponent's half of the field while the Panthers were driving for the win. He committed the cardinal sin twice -- throwing an interception in the red zone when the Panthers were only down by three points. This caused Panthers coach John Fox to have to re-affirm to the press that Delhomme is the starter a lot more than he would have liked. The Panthers addressed this by signing David Carr, clearly the best backup option they've had in the Delhomme era.

Delhomme is a fine bye week/injury QB -- the kind of QB worth a late pick, but nothing more. The risk of Delhomme losing his job to Carr, and his up and down performances, even while throwing the ball over 30 times a game, should keep you from giving Delhomme a bigger role on your team than one-week caretaker while your stud QB is on bye, or a third QB in a QBBC.