Faceoff - TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers

Posted 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

One of the keys to winning fantasy leagues is spending some picks on players who could vastly outperform their draft position. Vernon Davis not only supplies a ceiling in the stratosphere (at least for a tight end), but he is also coming at a very reasonable ADP -- chosen as the 7th tight end and 90th player overall. Davis is a special physical talent. He plays for a team that wants to feature him in the passing offense. He's been surrounded by positive buzz in the offseason. Best of all, he was hurt last year, which masks the fact that he had actually had a decent rookie season despite struggling and missing time and discounts his price. He's a player worth targeting in every TE required league.

When the San Francisco 49ers took Vernon Davis #6 overall in 2006, they made him the highest drafted tight end in the history of the league -- for good reason. Davis is almost a prototypical receiver at the tight end position. He runs a 4.4 40, he's strong like bull (33 reps of 225 at the combine), and explosive (42" vertical) all in a 6'3 255 lb frame. Before you say "workout warrior", keep in mind that he led the ACC receiving yards (that includes wide receivers) and his team in receptions in his All-American junior campaign. Davis is more than a tease who hasn't quite lived up to his potential; he has looked dominant at the highest level of college football and clearly learned how to harness his gifts on the field.

Davis was held back in his rookie campaign by a broken fibula that cost him six games, drops, and rookie mistakes. He still posted numbers that are impressive for a rookie at tight end -- one of the hardest positions to learn. Rookies, even ones that have great things in their future, rarely make much of an impact in year 1. Davis had 13/192/2 in his final four games of the 2006 season, a rate of production that would have put him solidly in the top 10 tight ends last year over 16 games (52/768/8). Judging by comments from San Francisco, those numbers could be closer to his floor than his ceiling. The team wants to make him the primary target in the passing game, and he has reportedly looked ready in minicamp and OTAs, ready to live up to the team's expectations. Davis should have enough targets to have the opportunity to join Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez in the elite TE tier. He's clearly the most dangerous TE in the league after the catch, and more balls means more chances to break a long run or TD. He already had two catches over 40 yards last year despite limited playing time.

If you end up with Vernon Davis on your team, you've done a good job. It's unlikely that you had to take him earlier than round 6 or 7, and you might have even gotten him at the ridiculous value price of a 9th or 10th rounder. This could be the last year Davis falls out of the top 50 picks for a long time, so enjoy the ride.

Downside - by Colin Dowling

I absolutely love what Vernon Davis brings to the table as a pass catcher. He's far too big to have a corner or safety matchup with him. And he's way too fast for a linebacker to cover. I expect that pretty soon it will be Vernon Davis, not Frank Gore, that keeps defensive coordinators up at night when game-planning for the 49ers. Furthermore, the improvement of Alex Smith as a quarterback should lead to a better and better passing game for San Francisco, which can only help with Davis's production.

The bad news is that for the time being, none of that matters. It is an undeniable fact that the only way a tight end is going to stay on the field in the NFL is to show he can block. Sure, he can line up in the slot and run a route every down, but what happens if the quarterback audibles to a run? What happens if the blocking tight end is in the game on every first down and only runs a route if the quarterback audibles to a pass? All of these situations add up to significant snaps missed, which means significant opportunities missed. If you think back recently to young tight ends that were able to get on the field quickly and make a difference in the passing game, they were all devastating blockers as much as they were great pass catchers. McMichael, Shockey, Winslow. All of them could level a linebacker with ease.

Does this describe Vernon Davis? He certainly has the physical ability to be an exceptional blocker, but protecting the quarterback or opening a running lane is as much about skill as it is about brute force. Perhaps Davis has worked on this at length and will become an excellent blocker over time. But right now, his draft position is a little too high to take that gamble. I'm not saying Davis won't produce this season, just that there is much better value to be had at the tight end position.