Faceoff - TE Owen Daniels, Houston Texans

Posted 6/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Chris Smith

There are likely still many fantasy football owners who don't know the name Owen Daniels. However he finished 14th in fantasy points amongst tight ends last year despite playing in only fourteen games and there are many reasons to believe he'll at least match those numbers this season.

Reasons to believe Daniels will have another good season.

1. Excellent size and good talent: Daniels surprised as a rookie last season, but in retrospect it shouldn't have been so surprising. He has ideal size for a receiving tight end at 6'3 and 250 pounds with the quickness to get separation from linebackers. He runs very well for a big man and has a knack for finding the holes in the opposing secondary.
2. Should see lots of targets: The Texans have a great #1 receiver in Andre Johnson and signed a proven veteran running back in Ahman Green. Those two players are definitely the first two in the pecking order on offense. However after Johnson there is no receiver that really leaps out as a viable threat in the passing game. That will definitely help Daniels this season as he'll frequently be the second option for new Texans' quarterback Matt Schaub.
3. New quarterback: QB David Carr was talented but never really found his stride for the Texans. Now Matt Schaub will get the opportunity to lead the team. If Schaub can play as well as expected, there will be more opportunities to make plays down the field and Daniels will be one of the players reaping that benefit.
4. His first season compares favorably to current top tight ends: I can already see the argument being presented that if you take away his one monster game last year (9 receptions for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Titans) that is numbers were very pedestrian, and yes there is something to be said for that. However rookie tight ends tend to struggle in their first season in the NFL as it is much more difficult for them to get separation from defenders than they're used to in college. Look at his rookie numbers compared to current top tight ends...

   Owen Daniels: 34 receptions for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns Alge Crumpler: 25 receptions for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns Tony Gonzalez: 33 receptions for 368 yards and 2 touchdowns Todd Heap: 16 receptions for 206 yards and 1 touchdown Antonio Gates: 24 receptions for 389 yards and 2 touchdowns

While Owen Daniels may not be a fantasy starter in 12-team fantasy leagues, he should be an outstanding backup and could be a decent starter in 14+ team leagues. He will get plenty of looks due to an absence of a true #2 receiver on the team, and there is no reason to expect his numbers to drop off from last year's pace. Look for at least 400 yards and 4-6 touchdowns from Daniels in 2007.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

There are definitely reasons to think Owen Daniels' production will take a step forward this year. He's a nice TE2 with upside that is worth drafting late in leagues with a TE premium, 16+ team leagues, or leagues with an ample enough roster size to justify carrying a second TE. Unfortunately, the optimism about Daniels prospects has probably exceeded what he is capable of, pushing him to the top of the "interesting TE2 with upside" tier, where he should really just be part of the pack.

Daniels is a nice talent, but not an outstanding talent, and not the kind of player whose past indicates great things in his future. He's an NFL quality athlete with toughness, good hands, and good body control. As a former QB, he has a more global understanding of the offense and how to effectively run his routes than a typical TE. Still, he lacks the explosiveness and speed to rip the seam and break long plays. He lacks the size to be a go-to target on third down and in the red zone. He was a backup TE in college, with career highs of 25 receptions, 391 yards, and 4 touchdowns in a season -- not exactly numbers that foretell a big-time future in the NFL.

Yes, last year Daniels eclipsed his college career high in catches and TDs, and almost beat his career high in yardage (34/352/5), but a closer examination counterfeits those numbers. Four of Daniels five touchdowns came in garbage time -- in the fourth quarter when the Texans were out of the game. In fact, a significant amount of Daniels' targets, yards and catches came when the Texans were playing out the string.

The recipe is there for Daniels to see a leap in production -- he's a quality pass catcher in an offense with instability at WR, he plays in an offense that should use the TE, and the team has shown confidence in his ability to live up to an expanded role. You can say the same thing about Visanthe Shiancoe, David Martin, and Marcedes Lewis -- all are going significantly later than Daniels. Other TEs who have already shown their ability to be relevant for fantasy such as Marcus Pollard, Eric Johnson, and Desmond Clark are going later than Daniels. Daniels is a commodity, but countless players going after him offer the same caliber of talent and opportunity with a much lower cost. When you feel the urge to take Daniels, spend the pick on a flier at WR or RB -- you can get just as good a TE2 rounds later.