Faceoff - QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos

Posted 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Clayton Gray

There are many reasons to like Jay Cutler this year. He is a productive fantasy QB. He has been remarkably consistent in his short career. There is no competition for his job. His head coach is solidly in his corner. He is fairly cheap on draft day. Finally, the Broncos have a long history of being a good offense. Let's take a quick look at each attribute.

Fantasy Production

Despite being thrust into the starting role probably before he was truly ready, Cutler scored 16.6 fantasy points per game last season, which was good for ninth among fantasy QBs. Extrapolating his numbers over a full 16-game season gives us 3203 yards, just under 29 TDs, and only 16 INTs.

Consistent Production

In his five starts last season, Cutler scored between 21.1 and 14.2 fantasy points per game. The best part is his TD production. Cutler had one game with a single TD toss and four games with two scoring passes.

Job Security

Cutler's job security is two-fold. First, the backup is Patrick Ramsey. While Ramsey is a nice player, he has proven to be incapable of holding down a starting role in four years in Washington and offered zero threat to Chad Pennington last year as a Jet. Second, head coach Mike Shanahan is certainly a fan of Cutler. Despite being in the playoff chase, Shanahan had no problem benching Jake Plummer last year in favor of Cutler. The rookie held the job for the remainder of the season, and Shanahan continues to be in his corner.

Draft Day Bargain

Despite being the #9 QB in points per game last season, Cutler is being taken as the #14 QB this year. There is really no basis for him to be downgraded by five spots. He'll have a full offseason as the team's starter. The increased number of repetitions will certainly allow him to improve. He'll have a more consistent running game with the addition of Travis Henry. The ground threat will allow him to be more comfortable behind center.

Solid Team Offense

It sounds elementary, but the easiest way to find productive players is to take them from productive offenses. While the NFL is full of surprising teams, the Broncos always seem to be good on offense. Since Shanahan took over in 1995, Denver's offense has finished in the top ten in scoring ten times and in the top ten in yards nine times.

Downside - by Chris Smith

QB Jay Cutler is going to be the face of the Broncos organization for the next 10 seasons. He has incredible arm strength, good overall talent and a true swagger about his game that I admire greatly. However we are not talking about his future in this debate but rather his present and there are a plethora of reasons to believe he won't be a consistent, viable fantasy starter this year.

Reasons to believe Cutler will not be a fantasy starter in 2007

1. Broncos will have a run-first / rely on defense philosophy to win games: Last season Cutler came in and played well in minimal action but the Broncos will not be going away from their philosophy of pounding the ball and relying on a very strong defense to win games. Last season the Broncos only threw 454 passes on the season and that is unlikely to change
2. Cutler is still a raw talent: While he did come in and do very well last season over the final five games, he is still a raw talent and is going to make mistakes as he learns on the fly. Teams will be better prepared for him in 2007 and he will struggle to have the success he experienced a season ago. Even last year however he averaged only 200 passing yards per game which translates to a pedestrian 3,200 passing yards over a 16-game season.
3. So many good options at quarterback this season: There are many good options at quarterback this season. Cutler would have to jump ahead of players such as Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jake Delhomme, Matt Hasselbeck and Eli Manning to slip into the top-twelve (fantasy starter territory).