Faceoff - TE Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Falcons

Posted 7/30, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

When we turn to discussing any Falcon receiver entering the 2007 training camps, observers are forced to comment on the unfolding Michael Vick situation. Regardless of Vick's guilt or innocence regarding the criminal dog-fighting enterprise he is alleged to have engaged in since 2001, one thing appears clear: Vick is highly likely to miss part or all of the 2007 regular season, whether through league action or action on the part of the Falcons' owner Arthur Blank. Vick has already been ordered not to attend the Falcons' training camp by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. The Falcons' starting QB this year will almost certainly be Joey Harrington.

Harrington is new to the team, and we know that he hasn't had a chance to work with Crumpler much up to now thanks to Crumpler's off-season arthroscopic knee surgery. However, we also know that the Falcons' wide receivers corps (aside from the aging Joe Horn) is an undistinguished group, at best. Last year, Crumpler was the most productive receiver on the team, and his high profile in the passing game is likely to continue as there just aren't better options to call on no matter who is under center. In fact, Crumpler has led all receivers on the Falcons for the last 3 years, with 48/774/6 during '04; 65/877/5 in '05; and 56/780/8 last year. Some criticize Crumpler for not hauling in even more passes (he saw 103 targets last year), but Vick (with his career 53.8 completion %) is partly to blame for the low catch % due to his penchant for bouncing the ball off the turf at Crumpler's feet or sailing it over Crumpler's head. This year, that won't be a factor that is in play.

Harrington doesn't have a much better career completion % than Vick (55.2), but he did make strides at the end of last season while playing with Miami (the Dolphins reeled off 5 wins in the second half last year, some against quality clubs like Chicago (31-13) and New England (21-0), before fading weeks 15-17). He threw a lot of interceptions early on after stepping in for Daunte Culpepper (9 interceptions and 6 TDs weeks 5, 6, 7, and 9), but calmed down once he had some games under his belt (6 TDs and 6 interceptions the rest of the way). This year, Harrington looks like he'll have the benefit of a full training camp as the Falcons' #1 QB -- hopefully he'll be able to get up to full speed during pre-season and open the regular season in a steady fashion.

A lot is changing in Atlanta right now in a big hurry, but I expect Crumpler to swim with the tide and be the teams' #1 receiver again during 2007. Fantasy owners will want to watch how he develops rapport with Harrington (and how the knee responds to a full slate of practices) -- but given the dearth of other quality targets on the team, Crumpler should be a top fantasy TE again this year.

Downside - by Jason Wood

Alge Crumpler is an excellent tight end; and his fantasy performance has matched his real-life worth to the Atlanta Falcons. Four straight Pro Bowls are coincident with fantasy rankings of 6th, 4th, 5th and 2nd, respectively. All things being equal, Crumpler is a fantasy godsend. So why am I penning the Low-side for Crumpler? Every season is unique and it's unreasonable to expect Crumpler to match his recent output for several reasons.

1. The surgery -- Crumpler quietly has knee surgery in April. While the team has been mum on the details, they have hinted that he could be limited in training camp. Not a good thing when you consider Crumpler's size AND that he's no stranger to the operating table (having knee and shoulder procedures last offseason).
2. The quarterback -- Say what you will about Michael Vick as a passer, but he had an unquestionably rapport and trust with Crumpler. Vick targeted Crumpler 104 times last year; and looked to him on any down and distance. Yet, Crumpler only caught 54% of his targets, one of the lowest percentages among relevant fantasy tight ends. With a new QB (Joey Harrington) and a new system (Petrino), how can we be sure he'll see as many targets?
3. The wide receiver -- Joe Horn is past his prime, but he's still highly productive, has great hands, and will command the ball. The Falcons haven't fielded anyone close to Horn's caliber in years, and there's little question that incumbent receiving options, Crumpler included, are going to have to accept fewer looks.
4. The offensive line -- The Falcons didn't have a very good offensive line last year and save for a rookie guard, appear no better off this season. With a MUCH less mobile QB under center and a transition to a new blocking scheme, you can be sure that Crumpler will have to stay in and block a lot more often this year. Lest you think this isn't a risk, take a look at how Tony Gonzalez struggled in KC when the Chiefs were re-jiggering their line, or how Jason Witten was ill-used when the line had to try to keep Drew Bledsoe upright.

Crumpler should still be a stud, but he's too risky in this TE-rich environment to draft at his current ADP.