Faceoff - TE Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins

Posted 7/31, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by David Yudkin

Chris Cooley was a Top Five tight end the past two seasons but has done so without much fanfare. In discussions on the best fantasy tight ends, he rarely gets much consideration. He's scored at least six touchdowns in all three seasons he's played and seems primed for even more production in 2007 in an Al Saunders offense that did wonders for Tony Gonzalez. Back in the day, Saunders helped coach the Chargers in the Kellen Winslow era, and if anyone get the most out of Cooley it will be Saunders.

Based on his ADP at MFL, Cooley is getting drafted as the eighth tight end off the board. With seven games with Jason Campbell at quarterback, Cooley posted 30 receptions, 411 receiving yards, and three TD. Projected over a full season, that would total 69 receptions, 939 receiving yards, and seven TD for a total of 136 fantasy points. Given that Cooley is their number two receiving threat behind Santana Moss, maintaining that level of production does not seem that much of a stretch.

With a healthy Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts forming a formidable rushing duo, Cooley should be able to break off the line when defenses try to stick more men in the box. And Cooley also should be able to get in the end zone just as frequently as he has in the past. The Redskins ranked 20th in points scored, and they should see additional scoring chances as the offense improves. He led the team in touch receptions in 2004 and tied for the team lead in 2006. Neither Antwaan Randle El nor Brandon Lloyd did much last year in their first years in Washington, so Cooley stands an excellent chance of being the number two receiving option after Santana Moss. (Cooley actually led the Skins in receptions last season.)

He's currently getting selected almost three rounds later than the start of the second tier tight ends after Antonio Gates. At a minimum, Cooley should be able to rival the production of the more hyped up tight ends drafted several rounds in front of him.

While Cooley may not post numbers on par with Tony Gonzalez in his prime, Cooley should still see an increase in his production and should be considered in the same tier this year as Heap, Shockey, Gonzalez, Winslow, Crumpler, and Davis. Let someone else take the other guys and swoop in and get the same level of production two or three rounds later.

Downside - by Mike Brown

For a player who has displayed such a terrific level of consistency as Cooley has these past two seasons, it can seem a bit daunting to drum up support for this player to have a downside. After all, Cooley's past two seasons have resulted in 774 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2005, followed up by 734 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2006. So what is so different about the upcoming season that could cause his value to drastically change? Well, there are several.

For one thing, the upside is no longer there. The proverbial cat is out of the bag. Some people got on board with Cooley in 2005 and ended up with a nice sleeper. Heading into 2006, there were still some on the fence as to whether or not 2005 was a fluke. But after posting near-identical stats, it became apparent that Cooley was no one-hit wonder. What this means now is that Cooley has earned the respect of nearly all fantasy owners, and his draft position will rise accordingly. Not only that, but there is usually that one owner who goes on the assumption of continued improvement (especially with a better quarterback, as Washington has) without realizing that the past two years are likely the ceiling of Cooley's production.

It's true that the Redskins have a stronger-armed and likely better quarterback now in Jason Campbell. But is that necessarily a good thing for Cooley? While it's true that he performed better last year with Campbell at QB, the fact of the matter is that Campbell was green last year and the team didn't quite trust him with the keys. Now Campbell has some experience under his belt and the team knows he can get the ball downfield. In a Joe Gibbs/Al Saunders offense, wouldn't you think they'd want to utilize the speedy outside weapons they've got? A strong aerial attack downfield could mean fewer underneath routes for the tight ends.

In addition to the short passes perhaps being reduced, there is of course the possibility that even when there ARE underneath routes, those will be shared as well. After his extremely strong showing a year ago, it's obvious that Ladell Betts will have some sort of role within the offense. If Clinton Portis stays healthy as the primary back, the majority of Betts' touches may come through the air -- and at the expense of the other short yardage/screen receivers (namely, Cooley).

Basically, I think Cooley could potentially do what he's done the last two years. But with the new quarterback in there, they may ease into the passing game a bit. Yet even if it is successful and does open up, I don't know that Cooley would be the big beneficiary. The upside just isn't there. He may be a safe bet based on what he's done the past two years, but you're paying for what he already did and not for anything more he might do.