Faceoff - WR Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints

Posted 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Marc Levin

Heading into 2007, the New Orleans Saints boast one of, if not the, most stable and consistent offensive systems in the entire league. The only significant loss was Joe Horn, who was mostly injured and inefficient the last two seasons. Since the Saints' passing game was tops in the league in 2006, the team is unlikely to change that scheme. Statistically, the Saints were in the top five in completions, pass yards, and pass TDs, which are the three categories that are most important for accumulating fantasy numbers.

The team will continue to target WR Marques Colston often. He averaged nearly ten targets in his 12 meaningful games. His impressive accomplishments in those 12 games are amply discussed in our spotlight on Colston. The important things to remember are the things that Colston brings back to the table this year. They include his importance in stretching the field for the running game, the comfort level QB Drew Brees developed when he was able to connect with Colston, and Colston's ability to score and to log yards after the catch due to his natural athleticism. Given his heavy targeting and ability catching the football, 90+ receptions and 10+ receiving TDs is not unthinkable.

In determining Colston's high side, the most important factor is ADP. Where others value Colston means you can almost certainly acquire him for good value. Barring injury to Chad Johnston, Steve Smith, Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, or Larry Fitzgerald, Colston is unlikely to break into the top-5 fantasy receivers. That said, he has sufficient proven use and upside potential to significantly outperform his current ADP of WR12 and overall ADP of 37.

The Saints' passing offense was tops in the league, Colston is the team's number one receiving option, and he is being drafted behind other teams' second receivers. Even if RB Reggie Bush steals looks in the receiving game, and even factoring in a slight drop in per game production due to a tough schedule in 2007, Colston should be expected to finish higher than the WR12. Moreover, it is reasonable to expect Colston to flirt with the production of the top-5 WR. In considering whether to draft Colston in the late third or early fourth round, there is nothing but high side.

Downside - by David Baker

Marques Colston is coming off a remarkable rookie campaign where in just 14 games he had 70 receptions, over 1,000 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He had four games with over 100 receiving yards. It's even more remarkable in that he was only a seventh round draft pick. There seems little doubt that Colston has in store for him a long and prosperous NFL career. Of course, the same could have been said for Tampa Bay WR Michael Clayton. Clayton put up numbers similar to Colston in his rookie year, with 80/1193/7. Since then, Clayton has been a monstrous disappointment. So will Colston discard any sophomore jinx and duplicate or increase upon his rookie output, or will he go the route of Clayton?

While I personally doubt Colston goes the Clayton route, it can not be completely dismissed. And while Colston seems unlikely to have a reversal of fortune to the level of Clayton, it's quite possible that Colston is being counted on for far too much production by many in the fantasy community.

One reason why so many encounter a sophomore jinx is that the opposition is often much more prepared to deal with the player. They learn what makes a player tick and approach him accordingly the following season. This could very well be true for a player like Colston who seemed to come out of nowhere last year after being such a late round draft pick. Defenses will be much more geared toward stopping Colston this year, especially with the lack of a second quality receiver or tight end across from Colston. We saw Colston's production drop a bit as the year wore on, getting only one touchdown in his last five complete regular season games. In his first nine games, Colston averaged over 96 yards per game and have seven touchdowns. Even tossing out the two games where he played very little, Colston still only averaged about 56 yards per game and only had one more score in the regular season.

He'll also be facing the opposition's best CB and double teams with much more frequency. Another possible consideration is that the Saints should be improved on defense after some much needed experience under the belt of some younger players and smart free agent acquisitions upgrading their starters of last year. An improved defense might very well mean less need for Drew Brees to throw the ball, limiting Colston's upside.

While I admit it's hard not to like Colston in 2007, the memories of Clayton's second year drop off should remind us all that it's not that easy to duplicate sensational rookie numbers. It could be an uphill battle for Colston as he encounters both defenses geared around stopping him and expectations levied upon him by all around. Those were both facets he did not face last year. Be cautious in your assignment of his value in 2007 accordingly.