Faceoff - DB Nick Collins, Green Bay Packers

Posted 7/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by John Norton

Collins is a player who may never break into the top 10 but those who rate him outside the top 30 may be missing the boat. When the Packers spent a second round pick on him in '05 they were looking for a playmaker in the Darren Sharper mold. Collins hasn't become that player just yet but he is following the same path that Sharper did. Early in his rookie campaign Collins struggled to find a comfort zone and made the expected rookie mistakes but by the end of the season he had shown considerable improvement. His first season produced respectable tackle numbers of 66-20 but with just 1 interception, a sack and a couple of forced fumbles, he didn't make much of a big play impact. As a result Collins finished with a ranking in the area of #45.

In his second season Collins maturity process continued with very solid fundamental play. His tackle numbers were very similar (67-15) but he began to step it up in the big play columns. His 3 picks and a pair of forced fumbles tell only part of the story. Collins placed among the league leaders at the safety position with 14 passes defended and landed among the top 30 in fantasy terms. The Packers defense as a whole has improved greatly over the past two seasons which should work to free up Collins for more playmaking opportunity. He'll likely never approach the 80 tackle mark but entering his third season, is just reaching his prime and is poised for a breakout season. In most leagues he was a decent third starter last season and there is certainly no reason to expect he will digress.

Downside - by Bob Magaw

A physical specimen and intriguing athlete that played multiple offensive and defensive positions as a star prep, Collins began his collegiate career at tiny Bethune-Cookman as a LB, was scouted as a potential CB during his draft process and now plays FS for the Packers. He is a speed merchant capable of delivering crushing blows to WRs going across the middle.

Some scouts felt that he was a project and bit of a reach in the second round ('05). Some of the biggest questions stemmed from level of competition concerns and also his technically raw state of development. Collins has answered some of those questions by emerging as the entrenched starter in the two years since his rookie campaign, with very similar season total box scores (top 20 among safeties in solo tackles - '05 & '06).

GBs secondary hasn't set the league on fire during his brief NFL stint, so he has that guilt by association (he had the big shoes of serial Pro Bowler Darren Sharper to fill). The Packers have given up too many big plays at times, leaving lingering questions about the maturation of Collins cover skills. An IDP downside concern is that the team with the cheddar attired fans has an underrated, improving front seven on defense, which could be a recipe for fewer tackle opps in run support. Incumbent MLB Nick Barnett and last year's rookie WLB sensation A.J. Hawk could emerge as a formidable one-two punch in coming seasons, and Collins may not get a steady diet of tackles from the scant leftovers that get by the voracious LB duo.

Finished #26 DB in '06, but got a big boost from a week 17 contest against a listless, uninspired Bears team that had clinched home field advantage in the playoffs. QBs Rex Grossman and Brian Griese threw a whopping 5 INTs between them, Collins had two of those picks and cashed in one of them for a TD. Take away the three big plays in an effectively meaningless game and his final IDP standing would have been significantly lowered.

While he is a promising youngster with upside in dynasty leagues, expectations for the coming season should perhaps be tempered, as he could be as likely to finish in the dreary top 40 suburbs of the DB rankings as he is to reside in the top 20 high rent district.