Faceoff - WR Mark Clayton, Baltimore Ravens

Posted 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Mark Clayton emerged as the top wide receiver in Baltimore during his second year as a pro, turning 114 targets into 67/939/5 (a 14.0 yards-per-reception average), while his team-mate Derrick Mason converted an almost identical number of targets (112) into 68/750/2 -- obviously, the more coveted receiver in fantasy circles heading into 2007 is Clayton. He's young and entering the prime of his career, while Mason is entering his 11th NFL season and hasn't averaged more than 12.5 yards per reception over the past 3 years (he averaged 11 last season). It looks like Claytons' star is on the rise -- he should crack the top 25 among WRs during his third campaign.

There was some good news recently about the Raven's QB Steve McNair -- the charges of DUI by consent that had been pending against McNair were dropped, so he is out of jeopardy in the legal system. McNair is entering his second year playing in the Ravens offense, which could boost the passing game as a whole. That would be a good thing for Clayton, who would be sure to benefit from a more prolific attack

Clayton is a seasoned NFL veteran now and his professional development looks promising. He doesn't have any rivals pushing him for playing time and looks like a clear-cut #1 WR. Also, Clayton has added 10 lbs of muscle during the off-season to enhance his tackle-breaking ability and to add endurance. He is clearly focused on continuing to improve his game.

Clayton is a promising young player who could become a star in this league. At the worst, he should surpass 1000 yards receiving this year and score TDs in the high single digits, and he may have upside beyond those levels. He looks like a solid pick for a #2 fantasy wide receiver during 2007.

Downside - by Andy Hicks

It would be easy to look at the progression Mark Clayton made last season and expect further improvement. Similar expectation on the Baltimore passing game as a whole is probably not expected. For the first time in his eight years at Baltimore, Brian Billick had a passing game that ranked in the top half of the NFL. The primary reason for this was the further deterioration of the running game. Once the leading running attack in the NFL, it declined to the point where it had the second worst yards per carry average in the league. This led to Jamal Lewis becoming a Cleveland Brown and Baltimore trading with Buffalo for Willis McGahee. Any improvement in the running game is likely to be at the detriment of the passing game. Eight years of the Brian Billick show has given us a fair picture of how he wants his offense to run. With Todd Heap, Derrick Mason and the up and coming Demetrius Williams around there may not be enough ball to vault Clayton into a WR2 or better caliber.

We also have the worn and torn Steve McNair's days in the league coming towards an end. He may only be 34, but has struggled to stay healthy in the last 4 years and were he to miss more time this year then Baltimore would have to go back to the Kyle Boller experiment. That hasn't exactly been fantasy success for his receivers so far.

With Mark Clayton being less than ideal size he will need to rely on getting most of his targets outside the red zone. He recorded only six of his 65 receptions in the red zone and due to this could struggle to get into the end zone with enough frequency to break into the Top 20 receivers, something Raven receivers have struggled to do in the Billick era. In actuality only one wide receiver has cracked the top 20 since Brian Billick has been in Baltimore - Qadry Ismail who twice finishing 16th. Mark Clayton probably represents the best chance to come close to that, but expecting him to perform as a WR2 is likely to end in disappointment for those who want that kind of production. Overall, Clayton makes for a nice WR3 who will have his good games. Unfortunately there will be many disappointing ones as well.