Faceoff - TE Desmond Clark, Chicago Bears

Posted 7/31, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mark Wimer

Last year, Rex Grossman finally played a full slate of 16 games, and he relied on Desmond Clark heavily. As a result, Clark threw down a career-best season, hauling in 45/626/6 while being targeted with 80 passes. It was his best showing since 2001, during his final season with the Broncos. Since arriving in Chicago during 2003, Clark has bounced around the high-teens (16th) to low 30's (32nd) before finishing 8th in fantasy points at his position during 2006. He was one of the best TE value picks last year -- the question entering 2007 is this: what impact will draftee Greg Olsen have on Clark?

The first item to note about Olsen is that he is a rookie TE. Olsen isn't reputed to be a strong run blocker (a key requirement in Chicago's run-oriented attack), which will keep Olsen off the field in a lot of situations. The move from the college ranks to the pros is huge -- rookie TE's rarely produce elite fantasy points their first season. Take a look at Vernon Davis' season from last year (42 targets for 20/265/3 over 10 games) or Dallas Clark's rookie season (42 targets for 29/340/1 over 10 games) -- both were 1st round picks that entered the league behind veteran TEs (Davis backed up Eric Johnson; Clark, Marcus Pollard).

Secondly, realize the team lost pass-catching RB Thomas Jones to the Jets in free agency, leaving the ham-handed Cedric Benson to carry the load. Jones snagged 56, 26, and 36 passes during his 3 seasons in Chicago. Assuming some of those passes go the TE's way during 2007, Clark and Olsen will have a bigger "pie" of yardage and scoring chances to split up. Clark should be able to (at least) maintain his share of targets on the team (and might see an increase of chances), even with Olsen on the field part-time.

Thirdly, in passing situations the presence of Olsen on the field will help loosen up coverage on Clark (and put pressure on Clark to perform at the top of his game). As Rex Grossman stated on June 5th, "Greg Olsen is going to be huge. He's going to make Desmond Clark better and our whole offense. We're probably going to have a few more plays for the tight end than we did." There is a lot to be said for motivation, and little motivates a player in the NFL more than a challenge for playing time. Clark stated in late May "He's going to do everything he can do to get the most playing time he can. I'm going to do what I've got to do to try and hold my position."

During 2007, expect Desmond Clark to lead the Bears at the tight end position. Olsen will see some reps during games, but the lions' share of chances should still go Clark's way. I expect Clark to end up in the top ten at his position again this year while Olsen learns the ropes at the pro level.

Downside - by Jeff Pasquino

Desmond Clark finished as the eighth best tight end in fantasy football last season, collecting 45 catches, 626 yards and six touchdowns for the Chicago Bears last year. He also turns 30 this year and has only finished in the Top 10 fantasy TEs once before -- way back in 2001 when he was with the Broncos. The biggest problem with Clark for this season lies not quite as much with Clark's age or track record but with what Chicago did in April.

The Bears picked TE Greg Olsen of the University of Miami with their top pick (First round, #31 overall) on Draft Day this year, which started the beginning of the end for Clark. Both TEs are likely to split time this season as Olsen learns the NFL game and speed, but the days of Clark being the security blanket for QB Rex Grossman over the middle are dwindling.

If you take just one statistic away from this article -- this is it. Desmond Clark had 80 targets last year, tied for #11 at the TE position in 2006. That is five a game. Compound this that the Bears targeted the TE 102 times last year along with Clark's modest reception percentage (56%) and you can see why his numbers are likely to decrease. Even if Clark gets 60% and catches the same percentage of those targets, he still would project to have just 37 receptions, nearly a 20% reduction.

It should also be noted that in the two seasons where Clark finished in the Top 10, he had an abnormally high touchdown total. Clark had six scores last year, the same number as in 2001. Rex Grossman should struggle to post 20+ touchdowns again this season and with WRs Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian in the mix along with Olsen, there may not be enough touchdowns to go around.

Clark is still the starter for the Bears and will likely hold on to that role for most, if not all, of the 2007 season. However, with the addition of Olsen and a continued emphasis on the run attack, I would expect that there would be fewer targets for Clark this season, and he will finish outside of the Top 24 fantasy TEs this year.