Faceoff - DL Andre Carter, Washington Redskins

Posted 7/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

Let's go back to December 2006. The Redskins had comfortably settled into the bottom third of the league, and the defensive big play production was a barren wasteland. The defense was on its way to earning the (dis)honors of fewest sacks, fewest takeaways, second most yards allowed... you get the point. You're excused if you missed it, but something else was happening on the 'Skins defense in December: Andre Carter finally found the form that enticed the Redskins into signing him to a seven year, 32.5 million dollar contract in the offseason. If he comes close to reproducing that stretch during 2007, he will be a massive steal in IDP leagues.

Carter posted 27 solo tackles, six assists, and four sacks in the final five games of 2006. Needless to say, these numbers made him a startable DE during that stretch in just about any format. Carter attributed his explosion to getting back to basics: "I think that maybe I was doing too much thinking to a certain degree, especially when it came to rushing the passer." Combine that with news that defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has been adjusting the pass rush to reduce it to less thinking and "more doing" in the words of Marcus Washington. Add in the fact that Washington, the team's most potent pass rusher next to Carter, should be healthy now that the hip that nagged him all year has been surgically repaired. Introduce Laron Landry, the #6 overall draft pick, and a doppelganger for Sean Taylor in the secondary -- a hard-hitting, do-everything safety. All of the ingredients are present for Carter to pick up exactly where he left off.

Carter is only 28, smack in the middle of his physical prime. He's showing no lingering problems related to the back injuries and surgeries that marred his 2004. The offense will be improved with a more seasoned Jason Campbell, which should keep games closer, and give Carter more chances to pin his ears back and go after the QB. He enters 2007 with no glaring red flags marring his situation or talent.

Drafting Carter is a low risk/high reward proposition. His consensus ranking of DL34 means you will only be drafting him as a DL3 -- giving you the freedom to see if Carter really does pick up where he left off as DL3 rides the bench in most league set-ups. If he hits, he could hit as a DL1. All he has to do to avoid being a miss is perform well enough to justify being a bye week/injury plug in. Even if the resurgent Carter we saw in December is the aberration instead of the norm, he should be able to maintain that level of production. As soon as you've filled out your top 2 DL, you should feel comfortable calling Andre Carter's name at your draft.

Downside - by David Baker

After his second NFL season, it looked like DE Andre Carter was going to be a star in the league. He was coming off a 54 tackle, 12.5 sack season that included three forced fumbles. The former seventh pick overall in the 2001 draft had 19 sacks, 100 total tackles and five forced fumbles in just two seasons. In the four seasons since then, he only has 19 sacks and last year was the first year since 2002 that he had more than 45 total tackles. He also has only forced two fumbles since 2002. So what happened since the promising start of his NFL career?

2003 was underwhelming for Carter as he was inconsistent and lacked the explosion from the year before. After back injuries hampered him in 2004, many hoped for a rebound the next year in 2005, but it never happened. After changing teams to the Redskins last year and moving away from the 49ers 3-4 defense, many predicted big things from Carter last year, but that also never happened. And while he had a strong finish to end up with reasonable numbers, he only had 23 total tackles and two sacks after their first 11 games last year. Carter is going to have to prove he can be a lot more consistent before I'm ready to include him in a higher echelon of IDP ends.

Another problem for Carter is that he plays on a defense that was only ranked 31st last year, and Carter's help along the line is minimal. Phillip Daniels is the starter opposite Carter and does little to provide the relief Carter needs to avoid double teams. Daniels, while a seasoned veteran who tries hard, is often forced to play hurt and is 34 years old. Worse yet, the Redskins did nothing to bolster the defensive end spot in the offseason.

To this point, Carter has been nothing more than a classic underachiever. After Carter's second season in the league, many wondered at how good he might become. Unfortunately, those same people are still left wondering. Carter has been somewhat of a tease for his IDP owners and if he can play at the level he ended last year with, Carter can put up some great numbers. Carter has talent, no doubt, that he shows off from time to time. But until he shows it off with some consistency, label me a doubter.