Faceoff - QB Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins

Posted 6/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

Did you know that Jason Campbell quietly averaged 15.71 fantasy points per game last season in the seven games in which he appeared? That is 185 pass yards per game, 10 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions, 53% completion percentage. Even though he's a second year guy, he has already been in two different offenses and spent a fair amount of time third on the depth chart, which means he likely wasn't getting many snaps in practice and the ones he did receive were with non-starters.

Now for the surprise: Did you know that those numbers over a full season would have ranked him as QB10 in 2006? No kidding, Jason Campbell -- a first time starter with a mediocre set of receivers and no Clinton Portis - would have been a viable starting quarterback in 2006. Did you know that Jason Campbell actually scored more fantasy points per game as a first time starter then Matt Leinart?

If we assume that Campbell and the Redskins offense will improve even the slightest amount, we should acknowledge that Jason Campbell has immense value as a fantasy selection. At worst, he appears at the top tier of backup quarterbacks. With a bit of improvement, he could nudge his way in to the top-12, meaning he's worth plenty in most every format. Sure, he's only played in seven games. But in those games, he was actually pretty productive all things considered.

The real fun with Campbell comes in where he can be had on draft day. Jason Campbell's current average draft position (ADP) is as QB23 somewhere near the end of the 11th round. Names like Matt Schaub (unproven, bad offensive line, very little skill-position talent) and Jake Delhomme (competing with David Carr for his job) are coming off the draft board before Jason Campbell.

Even the aforementioned Matt Leinart is being selected more then 70 picks ahead of Campbell. I think Matt Leinart may have the upside to justify such a high selection, and I think he will outperform Jason Campbell this season. However, I'm confused about how Jason Campbell's potential and upside are so easily dismissed. It's easy to look down on the prospect of drafting young quarterbacks due to their inevitable inconsistency and inevitable growing pains. That said, Jason Campbell has immense value on draft day both for where he can be acquired and where he should end up ranking at season's end. Pass on him for a backup quarterback like Jake Delhomme or Rex Grossman at your own risk.

Downside - by David Baker

Jason Campbell has a lot of the tools necessary to become a productive NFL QB. He has the size and physical tools needed as well as the mobility. But what he doesn't have is the experience, and what we saw last year was not promising for Campbell's future. Campbell, who was unable to hold off the elder Mark Brunell to start on opening day, became the full-time starter beginning week 11. He started the last seven games. So how did he do?

First of all, his team went 2-5 in those games. Patience is not an apparent virtue in the eyes of the NFL, and if Washington continues to lose, it might not be long before they seek alternatives, including the aforementioned Brunell, who remains on the team. The Redskins are a proud franchise and an extended early season losing streak would not bode well for those thinking Campbell has upside in fantasy leagues.

He also completed a very unremarkable 53% of his passes. Only two other QBs who attempted more than 100 passes had a worse completion percentage. He also only averaged about 185 yards passing per game, which is fairly low for a starting QB.

What was supposed to be a wealth of riches at receiver for the Redskins last year turned into disappointment, as none of the top three lived up to expectation. Santana Moss' production dropped by 25-30% from the previous year and the new kids on the block, Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El combined for a total of only 55 receptions. Despite that, the Redskins made no changes at the position, and Campbell is left to hope they improve as a group.

Their running game will rely on Clinton Portis. He is a wonderful RB, but he has to recover from injury or the team could be in trouble, as opposing defenses will send all they got after Campbell. Related to this, the Redskins are likely to focus most of their offense on the running game, perhaps limiting Campbell's opportunities to throw.

There has also been some analysis that showed that second year QBs who played their rookie year often regress. Perhaps it has to do with opposing teams studying QBs in the offseason for weaknesses and attacking those weaknesses the following season, but Campbell simply might not mature the way the team hopes with a year under his belt. The Redskins offensive line is solid with the front group, but they lack depth and a key injury or two could devastate them. Plus, they have a hole at guard after losing Derrick Dockery in the offseason.

Jason Campbell might very well have promise in the NFL, but too many are extrapolating his ten touchdowns in seven games last year into a full season and thinking that Campbell is a lock for 20+ in 2007. He's not. Even if he remains the starter for the whole year, don't be surprised if ends up toward the bottom tier of fantasy starting QBs.