Faceoff - RB Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints

Posted 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

When we look back on 2006 later on in Reggie Bush's career, time should reveal that he mightily struggled through a good stretch of the season. Forces aligned against Bush, and we only saw flashes of the ubertalent that was surrounded by a "next big thing" atmosphere of hype coming out of USC. Now Bush is a year tougher, and a year smarter, and defenses will not enjoy the success they had containing him again for a long time. Bush is definitely worthy of a first round pick, and you should be wearing a big smile if you get him at a double digit pick.

We now know that Reggie Bush injured his ankle in week 1 of 2006. He re-injured it in week 8. It would not be safe to assume that he'll battle injuries again in 2007. We also know that Reggie had a lot to learn about how a back has to run in the NFL. Early on in the season, Bush tried to turn everything into a footrace to the sideline, and school was in as Bush was frustrated to the tune of a 2.6 yards per carry average and no touchdowns in the first half of the season. The #2 overall pick changed his approach and learned to take what the defense gave him as the season went on. The Saints noticed, calling Bush's number to convert three goal-to-go carries from the one in the last five weeks of the season. Bush's ran the ball at a 4.8 yards per carry clip and scored seven touchdowns on the ground in the second half of the season and playoffs. The change showed in his receiving stats, with a 6.8/11.2 yards per catch and 0/3 touchdown split. Which do you think was the Bush we'll see going forward?

While your mind chews on those stats, remember the context: Bush was a rookie, even though the defenses he faced treated him with a respect reserved for players like LaDainian Tomlinson. Bush seemed to have a spy on every play and defenses were clearly preoccupied with him. Bush was as green as he'll ever be, and he was tested relentlessly by defenses, yet his talent set the bar of expectations so high that his finish of RB17 was actually a disappointment in some eyes.

The folks who took a chance on Bush last year will bemoan his slow start, but light up when they get to the three 20+ point performances in the all important week 13-16 stretch. Bush was electrifying, proving himself to be a player that can take it to the house on any play, and a player with a nose for the end zone in the red zone. He may not get as many touches as true feature backs, but he gets more touches than them in space, where his quicksilver moves and afterburners allow him to turn any play into enough points to make his fantasy week. That more than makes up for the fantasy value lost by not getting to run between the tackles very often. There's more risk in passing on Bush in the back end of the first round than there is in taking him.

Downside - by David Yudkin

Reggie Bush may one day be the next Marshall Faulk...but Faulk never had to split time with another top RB. The Saints still have Deuce McAllister, who had 274 touches and ranked as the #13 RB last year - four spots AHEAD of Bush. Very little has changed in New Orleans, and McAllister again will be a major obstacle in Bush emerging as a premier running back.

Several staffers and many drafters have Bush jumping into the Top Ten this year, even though Bush should again see the minority share of the RB workload. I've seen some people indicate that Bush will be a Top 5 back this year - in some venues his ADP is sixth overall. As for those taking him or predicting him as a Top Five RB, I openly wonder . . . HOW COULD HE RANK THAT HIGHLY?

Bush cannot play in any more games than he did last year as he played in every game. He's also unlikely to haul in many more receptions than the 88 he had last season. He scored eight touchdowns last year and McAllister is still around for the "heavy lifting" and tough carries in the red zone - meaning that he will be hard pressed to tack on a lot more touchdowns. And a healthy McAllister should still see the ball 250+ times.

That leaves (1) a long-term injury to McAllister, (2) a huge uptick in rushing attempts (stemming mostly from a TEAM increase in rushing attempts), or (3) dramatically improving on his production on a per carry/touch basis. I'm not sure that any of those are great bets and in my opinion would actually be classified as long shots.

McAllister has played in 14 games in five of his six years in the league. The Saints already ranked in the top third in the league in rushing attempts. And even if Bush had averaged an extra half-yard per carry he would only have mustered eight more fantasy points, leaving him far short of the Top Five running backs.

So I have a hard time envisioning how Bush can make a radical jump to approach Top Five status with Deuce McAllister still in the picture.