Faceoff - WR Plaxico Burress, New York Giants

Posted 8/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Andy Hicks

Plaxico Burress is the No.1 wide receiver on a team which is in the top half of the league in passing attempts. With the retirement of Tiki Barber, that is unlikely to change and he stands a good chance of seeing even more targets this year. His height and physical skills make him the perfect red zone receiver, as is evidenced by his 6 touchdowns in all games from only 7 receptions (17 targets) in the oppositions 20 last year. With guys like Sinorice Moss and Steve Smith needing time to develop and Amani Toomer past his best, the onus will be on Burress to deliver the big plays. Eli Manning knows who'll deliver the big play and we can expect the rapport those 2 have built up to continue into this season.

Burress appears to have alienated some fantasy owners. How else could it be explained that a guy who has finished 11th and 12th in the last 2 years is rated as a mid ranked WR2. Maybe his 10 touchdowns last year is perceived as a fluke? The year before he achieved a similar ranking with only 7 TDs, but did have 200 more receiving yards to his credit to make up the difference. A lot of doomsayers are predicting the Giants to implode this season taking all fantasy options with them. Obviously that could happen and the risk needs to be factored in, but the reverse could happen as well, after all the Giants did make the playoffs last year and the NFC isn't the strongest conference.

People may also want to bring up his checkered career at Pittsburgh, but in reality he had a successful 2nd and 3rd season there. With Hines Ward around it was always going to be difficult to be the player Burress thought he could be. Since arriving in Gotham he hasn't disappointed and should be given the benefit of the doubt where possible.

It's also a surprise that people are writing off Eli Manning this early in his career. He's not Peyton, but with only 2 full seasons behind him and a troubled offensive line, he has room to improve and mature in a manner than will make him even more effective to weapons such as Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey.

The absence of Tiki Barber will be felt by the Giants, but if the running game of Brandon Jacobs and Reuben Droughns falters they'll have to pass more. If Burress approaches the 166 targets from 2005, then his owners will be in for a pleasant surprise. He would have had more than the 121 that went his way last year, but he missed 1 game and most of another. Burress does offer up a boom or bust scenario, but the likelihood is a continuance of the form he has displayed in the last 2 years and another borderline WR1 finish. Overall Burress offers tantalizing WR1 potential for the price of a WR2.

Downside - by Chris Smith

Plaxico Burress is an enigma. He has the talent to be an exceptional talent in the NFL but for whatever reason, he too often falls short of that status. He has enjoyed to top-twelve seasons over the last two year but I don't believe he will exceed that position this year and at best we can expect more of the same from him in 2007.

Reasons to not elevate Plaxico Burress beyond his past statistics

1. Good, not great production: Burress has the size, speed, hands and athleticism to be amongst the finest receivers in the NFL today. However he has slotted in as simply a good receiver and that is where he is likely to stay. He only averaged a hair over 4 receptions per game last season and while he made things happen with the ball in his hands, he had a problem getting into positions to make the catch.
2. Turnover along Giants offensive line: The Giants offensive line has to re-shuffle their starters with guard David Diehl now slotted in at left tackle. QB Eli Manning may find himself having less time to throw than he did a year ago resulting in more erratic throws.
3. QB Eli Manning's completion percentage: Unlike his brother Peyton, Eli simply isn't as accurate with the football and has a career completion percentage of only 54.1%.

Final thoughts

WR Plaxico Burress is a good option in fantasy leagues. I guess this debate comes down to whether Burress can make the leap into the top-ten this season. Despite his fortunate mix of size, speed and talent, I just don't see the Giants passing attack being successful enough to rank Burress higher than the 15 to 20 range this season. Eli Manning simply hasn't shown enough at this level when it comes to completing passes. Expect to see around 70 receptions for 1,000 yards and 8/9 touchdowns. Good but not great numbers from a good, not great receiver.