Faceoff - QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams

Posted 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Marc Levin

How can anyone fail to see the upside to QB Marc Bulger? Over his career, Bulger has been an elite fantasy QB on a per game basis. In 2006, he completed a healthy 16 game season for the first time in his career. That netted him, according to standard footballguys.com scoring, a #3 fantasy QB ranking for 2006. The same factors that created a healthy and effective 2006 Bulger exist in 2007.

In 2006, Bulger reached career highs in pass attempts, pass completions, pass yards, and pass TDs. He also had his lowest number of interceptions since his 7 game 2002 season. Bulger's combination of health and pass efficiency in 2006 can be chalked up to two factors - the emergence of RB Steven Jackson and the offensive scheme initiated by HC Scott Linehan. When we examine the Rams' 2007 outlook, we will see that another stellar fantasy season awaits Bulger.

Instead of the Mike Martz approach of hanging out his QB to extend the play until a big pass play emerged, Linehan initiated a balanced attack that called for both efficient passing around the goal line and regular shots downfield. Bulger had 21 of his 24 TDs from inside the 20 yard line. The team has excellent receiving threats as it replaced the WRs it lost in free agency with Drew Bennett and Dante Hall, it retained both starting WRs in Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, and it acquired TE Randy McMichael (who accumulated good receiving numbers when Linehan was OC for the Miami Dolphins).

Meanwhile, the running threat of RB Steven Jackson will continue to prevent opposing defenses from selling out to stop the pass. When a team has a solid running game threat, the need to expose the QB to a pass rush diminishes. Bulger's risk of injury is not any more a concern in 2007 than the risk of injury to any other fantasy QB.

Jackson is also a vital receiving threat. He caught 90 of his 111 targets in 2006 for over 800 receiving yards and demonstrated equal proficiency as either an outlet target or as a primary passing game threat. Jackson's presence in the Rams' backfield can only help Bulger's chances to repeat as an elite fantasy QB.

In essence, nothing has changed for the Rams' passing game in 2007. Consequently, it is reasonable to expect another 4000+ pass yard/20+ pass TD season from Bulger. Those numbers will garner Bulger another top-5 fantasy finish. Meanwhile, Bulger's current average draft position is the #5 fantasy QB and 51st overall -- just ahead of Vince Young at 54th overall and a full 10 spots behind Drew Brees. Therefore, Bulger also represents good draft value. Good draft value, good chance of an elite fantasy finish, good chance of finishing a 16-game season -- there is simply no reasonable low side for Bulger for 2007.

Downside - by Clayton Gray

While Marc Bulger is a nice option for your every-week starter, he is certainly a notch below the elite fantasy QBs (Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, and Donovan McNabb). There are a handful of reasons to be lukewarm on Bulger. Comparatively speaking, he doesn't throw as many TDs as one would expect from a premier QB. He is not much of a runner. Finally, his supporting cast isn't what it once was. Let's delve deeper into each reason to shy away from Bulger.

Small TD Totals

Bulger is coming off the highest passing TD season of his five-year career. However, he only tossed 24 TDs. That pales in comparison to the true elite fantasy QBs.

• Peyton Manning has nine seasons with 24 or more passing TDs.
• Drew Brees has three seasons with 24 or more passing TDs.
• Carson Palmer has two seasons with 24 or more passing TDs.
• Tom Brady has four seasons with 24 or more passing TDs.
• Donovan McNabb has two seasons with 24 or more passing TDs.

Those guys are true threats to be top-notch TD producers. Bulger simply hasn't proven to be at that level. It seems like he is living on Kurt Warner's unbelievably high production back at the turn of the millennium. Bulger simply hasn't matched Warner's level.

Lack Of Wheels

While guys like Michael Vick and Vince Young reach upper tier status by putting up nice rushing stats, Bulger gives his owner nothing on the ground. In his five-year career, he has a total of 224 rushing yards. In the last two years, he has rushed for only 73 yards and zero TDs. Let's compare Bulger to the true elite fantasy QBs.

• Peyton Manning has 81 yards and four TDs in the last two seasons.
• Drew Brees has 81 yards and one TD in the last two seasons.
• Carson Palmer has 78 yards and one TD in the last two seasons.
• Tom Brady has 191 yards and one TD in the last two seasons.
• Donovan McNabb has 267 yards and four TDs in the last two seasons.

As with the passing TDs, Bulger is behind every other elite fantasy QB.

Lagging Support

Yes, Torry Holt is still an elite WR, but it's doubtful that he'll be better than he was last year. Isaac Bruce is still around, but he hasn't caught more than six TDs since 2002. He is clearly a player in decline. Free agency has been a mixed bag for the Rams. While St. Louis added a nice piece with Randy McMichael at TE, the arrival Drew Bennett isn't overly exciting. While people still remember him for his breakout 2004 season, Bennett has averaged 52 receptions, 738 yards, and 3.5 TDs over the last two years while being considered the top WR in Tennessee. Consider that Kevin Curtis departed after averaging 50 receptions, 640 yards, and 5 TDs over that same period as the third WR in St. Louis, and it's apparent that the Rams downgraded at WR3.