Faceoff - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins

Posted 8/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Pasquino

Ronnie Brown enters his third season as the starting tailback for the Miami Dolphins, but he is not alone. Brown shared the load in his rookie year with Ricky Williams, and now both rookie Lorenzo Booker and veteran Jesse Chatman are on the team to take some of the workload away from Brown this year.

What a minute -- this is a positive? Yes, it is. Brown has never completed a full season as a starting back, losing time both years to injury. Last season he managed to play in just 13 games, but when he did play he put up 10 or more fantasy points in ten of those 13 contests. Brown finished as the #12 RB in a points per game basis in 2006 and still was a Top 25 back last year despite a broken hand that cost him Weeks 13-15.

Brown did quite well in his rookie year with Ricky Williams sharing the backfield, finishing as a Top 25 RB with just fewer than 16 touches a week on average. The complimentary running backs for the Dolphins this year in Booker and Chatman will spell Brown when he needs it, but it should not cost him in production. If anything, it will keep Brown healthy and productive for 16 games and, more importantly, four quarters. A fresher Brown late in a game will have much more effect against tired defensive front sevens.

Miami also improved a woeful offense by adding QB Trent Green and first round pick WR Ted Ginn, Jr. Green should help to increase Miami's offense which posted a bottom five point total as a team with just over 16 points per game last season. Green has been a Top 10 QB and thrown for 20+ touchdowns four times in his career. Keeping defenses honest against the pass will help to open up running lanes for Brown and company and increase their totals.

If Ronnie Brown can remain healthy and find the end zone more consistently in 2007, drafters could easily be nicely rewarded with a Top 10 RB and great value. Currently Brown is going about RB15 in most fantasy drafts.

Downside - by Jeff Haseley

It's pretty clear that Ronnie Brown has the talent and ability to be a successful and productive RB in the NFL, but just because he has the ability, doesn't mean he will follow through. For a #2 overall pick two years ago, his 907 and 1008 yards rushing in 2005 and 2006 plus only 10 total TDs, isn't exactly indicative of a player of such pedigree. What's to blame for these lackluster numbers from such a high draft pick? Keep in mind in 2005 he shared duties with Ricky Williams, but last year he accounted for 67% of all carries from Miami RBs and only mustered 1008 yards rushing. He did miss three games last year with a broken hand, but in the fantasy world points are needed every week and Brown did not provide that.

2005

• Rushing Stats: 907 yards on 207 carries, 4 TDs, 4.4 YPC
• Receiving Stats: 32 catches on 47 targets for 232 yards, 1 TD
• RB Rank: 23rd with 9.6 fantasy points per games

2006

• Rushing Stats: 1008 yards on 241 carries, 5 TDs, 4.2 YPC
• Receiving Stats: 33 catches on 38 targets for 276 yards, 0 TDs
• RB Rank: 25th with 12.2 fantasy points per games

He is currently being drafted as the 15th best RB, yet the Dolphins OL has weakened (see below) and they drafted Lorenzo Booker for a faster, quicker, shiftier back to come in and likely be used on 3rd down and passing plays. This should decrease Brown's total carries as well as his receptions in 2007. Brown has always talked the talk about being an elite back, but time is running out for him to prove himself. Don't get me wrong, I think Brown will rush for 1000 yards and score at least 6-7 times, but what is his ceiling? Can he be a 1500-yd elite back that he wants so badly to be? Only time will tell.

As for that offensive line

Miami may very likely have new starters at all five offensive line positions in 2007. LT Vernon Carey (former right tackle), RT L.J. Shelton (former right guard) and RG Rex Hadnot (former center) are returning starters. They may start rookie Samson Satele at Center. It doesn't look good, but then again the Chargers OL was supposed to be horrible in LaDainian Tomlinson's rookie year. ESPN ranked the Miami OL line 31st in the league. Pro Football Weekly - 28th.

Disparaging numbers

• Only 8 games of 20+ carries in 28 career games. Miami wants him to tote the rock 20+ times a game and he's not used to it.
• Only 10 total TDs in 28 career games = 0.35 TD per game. That's not exactly lighting it up for RB that's a former #2 overall pick

Although Brown is a good RB talent on a team that is going to give him chances to excel, there's reason to believe we'll see more of the same in 2007, if not worse. If Brown is lingering in the third round, I can see the value of selecting him, but in my opinion there are much better choices for your RB2 and definitely RB1.