Faceoff - QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Posted 7/31, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Mike Brown

There is no question that Drew Brees deserves to be amongst the very first handful of quarterbacks heading into the 2007 season. Saying otherwise is almost impossible to justify.

Brees is not just coming off a great season. He's not just coming off an amazing season. He is actually off of one of the great quarterback seasons the league has ever seen. Ever! Over 4,400 yards tends to lend itself towards being an all-time great season. Throw in 26 touchdown passes and an appearance in the NFC Championship game for a former laughingstock franchise, and you can begin to see why the accolades are well warranted.

Heading into 2007, very little has changed in New Orleans except that maybe the Saints are a little better. With another year of experience for super rookies, RB Reggie Bush and WR Marques Colston, it's almost scary to dream up what this offense will be capable of.

The Saints are also one of the most pass-happy offenses in the entire league. Even when they want to use run plays, they often resort to screen passes to the running backs or inside shovel passes. After throwing the football 554 times a year ago, however, you don't need me to tell you how much they like to air it out in New Orleans.

The fact that Brees was able to air it out 554 times also speaks volumes about his health, which was a significant question mark heading into 2006. He was coming off a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, and a lot of observers were unsure if he'd ever be the same again. He quickly answered those questions and then some, meaning he's heading into 2007 fully healthy. That means extra preparation time on the practice field, extra time in the weight room, and extra reps in the preseason to really get into a rhythm. For a guy who threw for 4,400 yards a year ago, what kind of numbers can we expect if he is even more prepared for the season?

Whether or not you feel Brees is deserving of a high pick, the fact of the matter is that he's one of the safest bets to put up big-time stats amongst quarterbacks. If you're looking for a QB that you can plug into your lineup in Week 1 and never once have to worry about taking out (aside from the bye week) without spending a first round pick on Peyton Manning, then Brees is about as good an option as you're going to get.

Downside - by Jeff Pasquino

Allow me to admit that I am a fan of Drew Brees -- he personally helped me in numerous leagues last season. So why am I writing the low side perspective for him? Two reasons. First, one of the staff has to do it (and we all have him in the Top 10, so somehow I got elected). The second reason is actually much better, and it is something we all need to keep -- perspective. There are no perfect players, so you have to be able to check your opinions and biases at the door and look objectively at a fantasy player's value. Even if you love (or hate) a player, all players have value, pluses and minuses. So let's take a look at the downside of drafting Drew Brees for your fantasy squad in 2007.

Last season New Orleans led the league in passing yards with 4,424. Looking harder at that total and you see that Reggie Bush put up 748 of those yards, which was a huge plus for Brees last year. The question becomes whether the Saints will use Bush more as a rusher than a receiver, which would degrade Brees' value.

There are other concerns about the Saints and Brees. Will rookie sensation Marques Colston repeat his Top 20 numbers this season? Who will be the WR2 starting opposite of Colston - another rookie in Robert Meachem or a veteran like Devery Henderson, Terrance Copper or David Patten? Also, will Eric Johnson or Billy Miller improve the Saints' situation at tight end?

The Saints have made improvements since last year on the defensive side of the ball, which was a major hole in their 2006 franchise. If New Orleans can keep from playing in 38-31 shootouts and emphasize their two Pro Bowl running backs, the passing game will be less of a factor, again serving to lower the value of Drew Brees.

Putting together the improvements on defense and more carries than receptions this season for Bush and it is easier to see how Brees can slip out of the Top 5 fantasy QBs this coming year. Coupling that with Brees' current ADP level of not just a Top 5 QB but also a third or fourth round pick and the value just is not there. I would look elsewhere for your fantasy starter this season.