Faceoff - WR Deion Branch, Seattle Seahawks

Posted 7/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Cecil Lammey

The Seahawks gave up a first round pick for Deion Branch, and it's not surprising that a year later he is being relied on as the #1 WR. His first year with the Seahawks was solid, and Mike Holmgren expects Branch to make an even bigger impact this year. Even though he missed the first 2 games of the 2006 season, Deion still finished second in most major receiving categories for Seattle.

Now that former #1 WR Darrell Jackson is gone to San Francisco, Branch will have even more opportunities to be a top WR in the NFL. He will have to overcome concentration problems that surfaced in his game for the first time since entering the NFL. Branch is the type of player that is consistent in most every game. Darrell Jackson had 10 receiving TDs last year, and logic dictates that those catches will have to go to someone else. Branch is the first in line for those scores, and could himself reach double-digit TDs this year.

Branch has always been an above average route runner, and his timing in the West Coast offense is superb. He is very comfortable running the short to intermediate routes, and knows how to use his quickness to set up defenders. He is not overly fast, but can gain separation with his quick-twitch ability. When in the clear he does a good job of opening his body up to the QB, presenting a solid target for his field general.

QB Matt Hasselbeck only played in 12 games last season due to injury, and the Seattle passing game wasn't 100% with Seneca Wallace running the show. All reports indicate that Hasselbeck is back at full strength, and the injury to his non-throwing shoulder no longer is a problem. This will only help improve Branch's numbers as well. Developing a good rapport with Hasselbeck means that Matt will look to Branch early and often. Deion should easily eclipse the 100 target mark for the 4th time in his career. As we love to say at Footballguys -- with targets come opportunities to make plays. Deion Branch could finally break 1,000 yards receiving and develop further as a game-breaker for the Seahawks.

Downside - by Mike Brown

A lot of people are touting Deion Branch as a top-20 WR this season simply because he appears to be next in line for receptions with Darrell Jackson gone. Be careful, because things aren't always as they appear.

Branch put up solid, albeit unspectacular, numbers in his first year with Seattle. This, despite the fact that Jackson missed a significant amount of time due to injury and there were plenty of footballs to go around. Let's consider the following: if Branch is now going to be "the man" with Jackson gone, then why wasn't he "the man" when Jackson was out last season?

During the weeks Jackson missed (Weeks 15-17), Branch scored 13.3 fantasy points. He registered 12 receptions for 153 yards on 25 targets over the three games. Meanwhile, the supposed #2 receiver, D.J. Hackett, garnered almost twice as many fantasy points (24.7) over that same timeframe. Hackett saw the same number of passes as Branch, but caught 15 of them for 187 yards and a touchdown. Say what you will about Branch's veteran presence; the simple fact is that when these two guys were on the field together (as they will be this season), Hackett was the better player.

Considering Branch is being taken ahead of several other unquestioned WR1s, it's curious that people would put so much stock into a guy who is no lock to even put up the top stats on his own team. After all, it's not as if Branch has a glowing track record to support such assertions. For all we've heard of him the past few years, he's still never had a 1,000-yard season and has never finished higher than WR22 in fantasy.

The problem with Branch is that even though he's never put up stellar numbers, someone will see him as a shoo-in to put up Darrell Jackson stats. But Branch doesn't have Jackson's talent. He's undersized (5'9") without blazing speed, and isn't a red zone threat (zero touchdowns the second half of 2006). Yet despite all this, it's likely that someone in every league will expect him to simply step in and duplicate Jackson's average season. While it wouldn't be a shock if he put up good stats, don't be the person who assumes it's a given and goes and spends a pick on him as if he's already an 1,100-yard, 8 TD guy.

One final point: what if Branch's own shortcomings and D.J. Hackett aren't issues? What if the real issue lies with the Seattle offense in general? Is Shaun Alexander's foot still an problem? Can Matt Hasselbeck rebound? After four consecutive years as a top-ten offense (three of those in the top six), the Seahawks dipped all the way to 18th last year. Is that a blip on the radar, or the start of a trend? There are just too many worries surrounding Branch for me to feel comfortable making him my WR2 in 2007.