Faceoff - QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Posted 6/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Chris Smith

Tom Brady is already one of the most successful quarterbacks of all time and is entering the prime of his career. He has been very consistent over the past several years in terms of fantasy production with five straight top-11 seasons and has finished as high as second at the quarterback position as recently as the 2005 campaign. Much like Joe Montana (who didn't finish as the top fantasy quarterback until his seventh season) there are plenty of reasons to believe Tom Brady is ready to elevate his game in 2007.

Reasons for Optimism

1. Huge improvement at WR: Last season, Tom Brady managed to finish as the seventh best quarterback in fantasy football despite being saddled with one of the worst receiving cores in the NFL. Reche Caldwell was the #1, Jabar Gaffney was the #2 and both players struggled in those roles. Fast forward to the upcoming season and Tom Brady will have the luxury of throwing to a motivated Randy Moss, the explosive Donte Stallworth, the quick Wes Welker and then Reche Caldwell as a superb #4 receiver.
2. Brady has averaged 26 touchdown passes per season over the last five years with a low of 23 and a high of 28. His consistency and durability over that stretch has been impressive. You know what you are getting when you draft Brady.
3. His YPA should return back to previous highs: Last season his YPA dropped one full point behind his 2004 and 2005 levels. He finished 2006 with a very disappointing 6.8 YPA which was a direct result of mediocre receiver play throughout the season. Brady should have no problem returning to the 7.8 YPA level in 2005 that helped him finish as the second best fantasy quarterback that season.
4. The Patriots will be a determined bunch: The way the Patriots season ended a year ago when they blew a huge lead in the AFC championship game to the Colts will help this team return more determined than ever, and Brady in particular is the poster child of that drive to be the best.
5. The loss of Corey Dillon may result in even more passing attempts in 2007: Laurence Maroney is a very gifted running back but there are questions in regards to his durability, and ultimately it is possible the Patriots will have 40-50 fewer rushing attempts and a similar bump up in passing attempts. Even if there isn't a jump in attempts however, Brady has topped 500+ attempts in four of the last five seasons.

In conclusion, I have no problem if somebody wants to rank Peyton Manning as the top fantasy quarterback this season. However looking at the Patriots massive upgrade at receiver and Brady's consistency, I believe it will be Brady's year to shine and take his place at the top of the fantasy football ladder.

Downside - by David Baker

It seems almost un-Patriot-ic to not like Tom Brady. He's the All-American boy who wins Super Bowls and performs in the clutch. He's also as consistent as they get, tossing between 23 and 28 touchdowns the last five seasons and for no less than 3,600 yards. And while he certainly is a logical choice as a #1 QB for a fantasy owner, and many are tantalized at the prospect of adding weapons like Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth, there is some cause for hesitation when it comes to Brady.

Yes, Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth are wonderful talents. But both have had their share of problems in living up to expectations. Randy Moss has been nothing short of a malcontent. Besides fighting off hamstring, groin and ankle problems, Moss has simply not produced the last few seasons. He has surpasses 50 receptions and 770 yards only once in the last three years. He looks disinterested on the field and has stated he doesn't always try hard or block. In fact, he has been more the problem than the solution recently. Moss also lacks the ability to run the disciplined routes so important to the Patriot's offense. Some believe he's simply not the same player he once was due to injuries. As for Stallworth, he has battled hamstring problems, as well as other injuries, his whole career and never quite lived up to expectations. Moss and Stallworth, while dazzling with potential, could ultimately mean more headaches and question marks for Brady as opposed to huge upside.

Change is also a potential problem. No matter how talented they are, Brady is throwing to an entirely new crop of receivers, and in a timing system such as New England's, it might take some time to get into the flow. Turning potential into production is not always an easy task. There are no guarantees, especially with guys like Moss and Stallworth on board. It might take a while for this new crop of receivers to get their routes down and routine in place. Anytime you're facing so many new faces at the skill position spots, including RB, it should be cause for concern.

Also, the Patriots defense is so good that they might not need to throw much this year, despite their weapons. It could be a case of controlling the time of possession by continually running the ball. And they could be ahead so frequently that they don't pass much at all in the second half of games.

It's popular to look at Brady and declare him a lock for a top spot at QB. And that theory may very well prove correct. But he will be likely overvalued by too many this year. There is no reason to think Brady stumbles this year. But there are enough question marks to warrant some hesitation when thinking about taking him as the top QB. He only had five touchdowns in his last six regular season games. He'll have to do a lot better than that to be a top 3 QB this year.