Faceoff - WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals

Posted 8/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Clayton Gray

I'll never forget Anquan Boldin bursting upon the fantasy scene with an insane 10-catch, 217-yard, two-TD effort against the Lions. The ensuing waiver wire rush was truly a sight to behold. Of course he tailed off a bit after that game, but he has 19 games over 100 yards and is easily one of the top WRs in the game.

The New Offense

The biggest news surrounding Boldin and the Cardinals is the change in coaching staff. The pass-happy Denny Green is out, and the balanced Ken Whisenhunt is in. Of course many look at the installation of a new offense as a detriment to Boldin's production. On the surface, that's true as the new staff would like to run about 100 or so more times than the team did last season. However, if we dig a little deeper, we realize that isn't such bad news after all.

First off, the new offense should allow the passing game to be more productive on a per play basis. With a real ground threat, Boldin will likely see a good deal of single coverage this season. He can exploit that.

Also, some of those carries will go directly to Boldin. While at Pittsburgh, Whisenhunt was a master of getting WRs involved in creative ways, and he has already stated that Boldin will be used all over the field.

Consistently Good

The best thing about Boldin is that he is consistently a part of the offense. In 56 career games, he has been targeted eight or more times in 44 of them. His QBs always look for him, and they usually find him as he has 24 games with at 100 yards and/or a TD. If you discount the 2004 season where he was coming back from injury, he has 22 high-scoring games in only 46 outings - almost a 50% ratio which is fantastic for WRs.

Relationship With Leinart

Matt Leinart looks for Boldin often. In Leinart's first four starts, he targeted Boldin an incredible 49 times. While most people think Larry Fitzgerald is the more popular target, that is simply false. In Leinart's last seven starts (where all three players were healthy), Fitzgerald had 60 looks from his QB while Boldin tallied 61.

The new coaching staff has promised to get Boldin even more involved in the offense. Here is a simple yet revealing quote from HC Whisenhunt: "I'm just telling you, watch out for Anquan." Watch out indeed.

Downside - by Mark Wimer

Anquan Boldin is a great receiver, having finished in the top 20 at his position during each of the last 2 years (8th during 2005, 17th during 2006). Entering 2007, he'll have the benefit of a full training camp with Matt Leinart, the Cardinal's new starting QB -- after working for the majority of last year with the young signal caller after Leinart stepped into the lineup for Kurt Warner. So why would anyone be down on Boldin's chances to land among the league's elite tier of fantasy wide receivers?

First of all, the Cardinals have a new coaching staff that will feature a new, more run-oriented offensive philosophy this year. It is highly likely that there will be a smaller pie of receptions/yards/scores to split up among Larry Fitzgerald, Boldin and Bryant Johnson.

Secondly, Fitzgerald is the superior red-zone threat (having snagged 24 TDs during his 3 years in the league, vs. Boldin's 12 during the same time period). Boldin's fantasy prospects look even dimmer when we take a look at Boldin's, Fitzgerald's, and Leinart's game logs from last season. When Fitzgerald was in the game with Leinart (week 5, then 10-17), he hauled in 5 TDs to Boldin's 2 scores in those contests. At the end of the season, when Leinart was firmly in the saddle and up to speed, Fitzgerald caught 4 TDs over the final 5 weeks (1 per game during 4 games), while Boldin reeled in a grand total of 0 TDs.

It appears that Fitzgerald and Leinart are very simpatico in scoring situations, while Boldin simply doesn't get as many looks in the end zone. The declining trend in scoring on Boldin's part with Leinart under center - combined with more emphasis on the running game from the coaching staff this year -- will probably limit Boldin's scoring chances even more. I'd be surprised to see Boldin catch more than 5 TDs this year, which will limit his fantasy upside, and probably keep him outside of the top tier of fantasy wide receivers during 2007.