Faceoff - DB Antoine Bethea, Indianapolis Colts

Posted 6/15, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

Antoine Bethea was one of the most outstanding, and most relied upon rookies in the league last year. He had a consistent presence in run support, and his coverage abilities really came on in the playoffs. This year, Bethea will be even more comfortable and ready for the job ahead of him, and he merits a look around the time the 20th DB goes off the board.

Bethea started in week 1 of his rookie season because starters Mike Doss and Bob Sanders were both sidelined with injuries. Not only did Bethea avoid being a liability when pressed into duty, he took a hold of the starting job and never gave it back. Doss's season eventually ended with a torn ACL, and he's now a Viking. Bethea's excellent rookie season allowed the team to move Marlin Jackson to full-time cornerback. The team has paved the way for Bethea to become entrenched next to Bob Sanders.

Consistency is important for fantasy, and Bethea's presence in run support provided an excellent baseline, even while he was focused on not making rookie mistakes. Bethea had at least six total tackles in 11 of his 15 games played. One whiff was a game cut short due to injury, and two others were complete blowouts for the Colts. The size of Bethea's role in run support should continue to be inversely proportional to the size of Indy's linebackers -- a squad that will continue to be one of the smallest in the league with the installation of 5'11" 226 lb Freddy Keiaho at WLB.

At first glance, it might be troubling that Bethea had few big plays to boost his fantasy production from that solid foundation of tackle stats. He had only one interception and five passes defended -- very pedestrian for a fantasy safety. His outstanding playoff performance should put to rest any ideas that this will be a permanent feature of Bethea's fantasy outlook. He was very active in coverage, breaking up four passes and intercepting two in four playoff games. Another factor at play here could be the way Bob Sanders raises the level of play of the entire defense. Sanders was only able to appear in four regular season games last year -- if he can have a healthy season, Bethea could have many more opportunities for big plays.

Antoine Bethea should be commended for being a starter and important contributor on a Super Bowl winning team as a rookie. He never seemed in over his head, making few rookie mistakes. Now that he's had an entire offseason to internalize his responsibilities, Bethea will be able to tap into his impressive athletic ability and instincts to take his rightful place among the perennial starting quality fantasy DBs.

Downside - by Aaron Rudnicki

Bethea had an impressive rookie season that caught most IDP owners by surprise. He wasn't a very highly regarded player in the draft since he was coming out of a smaller school like Howard, and that is why the Colts were able to land him near the end of the 6th round. While most players drafted that late have to spend a few years developing as a reserve and contributing on special teams before getting a chance to play, Bethea was thrust into the starting lineup right away due to injuries. Colts safeties Bob Sanders and Mike Doss only played 10 games combined during the regular season last year so that created a huge void that Bethea was able to fill admirably.

In 14 games played, Bethea finished with 89 combined tackles (65 solo), which ranked 3rd on the team. Those are solid numbers but really not that impressive when you consider the circumstances. Not only was he playing a major role due to the injuries suffered by Sanders and Doss, but he was also playing SS on one of the league's worst run defenses so there's a reasonable chance that any player plugged into that spot could have produced similar tackle numbers. He doesn't have a reputation as being much of a playmaker either as he finished with just 7 in his college career and just 1 as a rookie (although he did add 2 in the postseason when the Colts defense began to play much better).

The FBG consensus rankings have Bethea in the low 20s, but he only finished as DB59 a year ago so it looks like people are expecting significant improvement from him in 2007. There is less competition now with Mike Doss moving on to Minnesota, but a healthy Bob Sanders is a huge upgrade over the backups that were playing alongside Bethea a year ago. Sanders is a special player who has incredible range and a very aggressive playing style that will likely result in him making a lot of the tackles when an offensive player reaches the secondary. It is unclear which player will line up as the SS and which as the FS but the positions are relatively interchangeable in the Colts defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bethea improve on his numbers from a year ago due to becoming more comfortable and normal development for a young player, but I don't think he has the upside to warrant being ranked too highly. He seems just as likely to regress this year as he is to show significant improvement.