Faceoff - RB Cedric Benson, Chicago Bears

Posted 5/29, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Colin Dowling

The best value of the 2007 fantasy football season was created in April of 2005 in dramatic fashion. Around 1:00 PM central time, running back Cedric Benson broke down and cried after he was selected fourth overall by the Chicago Bears. Ever since then, it is fair to say that a majority -- perhaps even a "vast" majority -- of fantasy footballers have inexplicably had a bone to pick with Benson. He has been injured some, been unproductive at times, and alienated teammates with some comments. That said, his sins are not nearly as egregious as some that happen in locker rooms and are quickly repaired. However, Benson's mistakes are amplified by the tears shed in the spring of 2005.

Lucky you, because that means Benson will likely fall to a draft spot he has no business falling to.

Cedric Benson's role this season could not be clearer: he is expected to be the bell-cow, every down back of the rush-heavy offense of the Chicago Bears. That's why he was drafted with Thomas Jones on the roster, and that's why Thomas Jones was sent packing despite a few years of solid production for the Bears. Ron Turner's offense is tailored to Benson's strengths: between the tackles running, yards after contact, and wearing out the defense.

Make no mistake. Cedric Benson excels at those skills like few running backs in the league. There should be no questions about Benson's size, speed, agility, toughness, and overall ability. The only thing that even gives cause for pause regarding Benson is the opportunity he will receive and his health.

I believe Cedric Benson's injuries in the past have been isolated incidents, unlikely to be repeated. While more carries equals more hits and more chances to suffer injury, Benson was ridiculously durable for four years in college. I think that his recent injury history is the exception, not the norm.

Regarding his opportunity, I'll write this as clearly as I can: if you think that Garrett Wolfe or Adrian Peterson are on the roster to do much more then spell Cedric Benson, then you will be sorely disappointed. That's not to say they are bad players. It is to say that their opportunities will likely be few and far between.

Thomas Jones produced 4250 total yards and 22 touchdowns in three seasons as the Bears feature runner. Last season, Benson and Jones combined for 1857 yards and 12 touchdowns. The year before, the Bears running backs produced 1998 yards and 12 touchdowns. Those are ridiculous numbers, and if Cedric Benson can achieve even two-thirds of that production on his own, you're looking at statistics of near 1,300 rush yards and eight touchdowns. Without any upswing, and without factoring in any receptions or receiving yards, those kinds of statistics would have placed him about tenth among running backs in 2006. That is a full seven spaces above where he is being selected. I happen to think he will be even better then that.

Pass on Cedric Benson in the second round at your own risk.

Downside - by Clayton Gray

Conventional wisdom loves Cedric Benson this season. After all, Thomas Jones is gone, so there is nothing standing in the way of Benson seizing the job and becoming an elite fantasy running back. However, after a little digging, it's easy to find a handful of worries with him and with his situation.

Is Benson That Good?

While Thomas Jones is a nice player, he's certainly not an elite NFL back. However, he was able to keep the starting job over Benson for two years. While in Chicago, Jones was easily ahead of Benson when both backs were healthy. To amplify the difference between the two players, we need only to examine their first-down carries. Jones carried 178 times for a 4.2 YPC average, while Benson toted the ball 113 times at a 3.8 YPC clip. While it's certainly possible that Benson could improve, it's pretty obvious that he is not yet a top-shelf runner. Without improvement, that poor average will bog down drives and could lead to other backs getting a more looks.

Running Back Without Committee?

While Thomas Jones is in New York, it's not a given that he took the committee with him. HC Lovie Smith has shown a propensity for RBBC since he took over the Bears in 2004. In his first season, Anthony Thomas saw 139 touches while playing behind Thomas Jones. In 2005, Adrian Peterson and Cedric Benson saw 151 looks in relief. Finally, last year saw Benson touch the ball 165 times while playing second fiddle. This is a strong indication that the Bears prefer multiple backs. Peterson has shown to be a very capable runner, and the coaching staff will have no problem calling his number often.

Touches Going Elsewhere

Rex Grossman was painfully inconsistent last season. However, a lot of that can be excused as inexperience. While he has been in the league since 2003, Grossman had played in only eight games before last season. The coaching staff obviously believes in Grossman (as evidenced by their complete devotion to him last season). If his play can even out, they could easily hand more of the offense to him.

Bernard Berrian appears ready to excel in the role of WR1, which will make Muhsin Muhammad one of the better WR2s in the league. The changes made in the offseason point to an expanded passing game as well. The team added another receiving threat in rookie Greg Olsen. He and Desmond Clark are a formidable TE tandem. Wildcard additions to the offense are Devin Hester and Garrett Wolfe. Hester in particular is someone the Bears will want to get touches.

Lack of "It"

There is simply something about Benson that doesn't seem right. Maybe it's the stories of teammates not liking him (including some defensive players making game-type tackles on him in practice). Maybe it's his horrible two-carry for minus one yard, a fumble, and a knee sprain performance in Super Bowl XLI. Maybe it's both. The bottom line is that Cedric Benson does not inspire confidence.