Faceoff - RB Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys

Posted 8/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Andy Hicks

Who am I? I'm part of a Running Back by Committee (RBBC). I didn't get as many carries as the elder member of my committee, but I did get twice as many receptions and more than twice as many TDs. I did have a better yards per carry than my rival and my final finishing position last year in fantasy rankings was much higher than my teammate. I was largely unheralded moving into the 2006 season, but my 14+ TDs soon elevated me into a fantasy favorite. This season I will be drafted ahead of my teammate, even though he is still likely to see more carries.

Am I Reggie Bush? -- No of course not, Reggie didn't have 14 TDs, a better yards per carry than his teammate, finish higher in the fantasy rankings than his rival and was anything but unheralded.

Am I Maurice Jones-Drew? Well yes I actually am, but someone with the same characteristics as above will be available three rounds later. That man of course is Marion Barber III.

To further compare Jones-Drew and Barber, Jones-Drew had 166 carries, Barber 135, Jones-Drew had 15 TDs, Barber had more with 16. They easily outperformed Fred Taylor and Julius Jones respectively in fantasy rankings, even though their elder had 100+ more carries. Jones-Drew is a borderline first round pick in most leagues. Barber can be had in the late fourth or early fifth.

Barber clearly outperformed Julius Jones in almost all aspects of the game. His yards per carry were significantly higher, which is highly impressive when you consider that Barber had 25 carries for 31 yards inside the 5 yard line for 11 touchdowns. Take them out and he had a yards per carry of 5.5 yards. This is almost a yard and a half better than Jones. It wasn't as if Barber was getting soft yards either. I'm sure this hasn't escaped the attention of the new coaching regime.

Obviously Barber's touchdown figures could take a hit this year, but the man has an obvious talent inside the five so I wouldn't predict a great fall here. He is highly likely to pick up more carries given his production and is easily the better receiver out of the backfield. Jones has a bit of an injury prone reputation, missing 11 games in three years, although he did manage to play every game last year. There is of course the concern that the new coaching staff will be blind to the quality of Marion Barber, but that shouldn't stop you drafting Barber with confidence as your RB2 or RB3.

Downside - by Clayton Gray

Marion Barber III was one of the surprise RBs of 2006. He is generally considered to be the most talented back on the Dallas roster. He is a hard-nosed runner with an obvious knack for finding the endzone. That's nice and all, but he is going to disappoint a lot of owners this year.

Surprises and TDs

Surprise players are fantasy gold, but many people are burned the following season when they expect great production for a second straight year. Of course that production is sometimes there, but sometimes it is not.

It doesn't take a mental heavyweight to see that Barber's TD totals are what made him such a valuable commodity last season. While his total yardage was up from 653 to 850, it was the TD jump from five to sixteen that made the difference in value. With that kind of yardage, Barber must return to the endzone often to be a viable starting fantasy back. Don't count on it.

• 2001 - 10 players with at least 10 TDs / 2002 - 3 of those players with at least 10 TDs
• 2002 - 11 players with at least 10 TDs / 2003 - 6 of those players with at least 10 TDs
• 2003 - 12 players with at least 10 TDs / 2004 - 3 of those players with at least 10 TDs
• 2004 - 12 players with at least 10 TDs / 2005 - 6 of those players with at least 10 TDs
• 2005 - 12 players with at least 10 TDs / 2006 - 5 of those players with at least 10 TDs

In those five years, the ten-TD mark was surpassed 57 times but only 23 times did the player reach that mark again the following season. That's a 40% chance of repeating. On the surface, that looks encouraging for Barber. If that percentage holds, then four of this group (LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Steve Jackson, Barber, Willie Parker, Maurice Jones-Drew, Corey Dillon, Rudi Johnson, Brian Westbrook, and Deuce McAllister) will make it. Of course Dillon can be crossed off, but you have to pencil in the likes of Tomlinson, L. Johnson, and probably Jackson. With R. Johnson becoming a fixture in the ten-TD club, there simply isn't room to expect Barber to return to that level.

Julius Jones

The biggest drawback to Barber's 2007 prospects is the departure of Bill Parcells. Barber was easily a Parcells favorite, but the new coaching staff seems to prefer Jones' speed. Regardless of the reason, it's pretty clear that Jones will continue as the team's starting RB. With the likelihood of lower TD numbers, Barber needs more yards to remain a qualify fantasy back. It doesn't look like he'll get the opportunity to obtain those yards.