Faceoff - Backup RB with the most value?

Posted 6/22, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Marcel Shipp - Ari - by David Yudkin

Marcel Shipp of the Cardinals may seem like an unlikely selection for this assignment given that Arizona had the lowest team yards per carry average in the NFL the past two seasons. However, a lot has changed since then.

In his rookie campaign, few people realize (or remember) that in the final eight games of the 2002 season Shipp averaged 116 yards from scrimmage and 0.5 TDs per game. He has struggled since breaking his ankle (and missing the 2004 season) and has (perhaps unjustly) been kicked to the curb by the likes of Emmitt Smith, J.J. Arrington, and Edgerrin James.

However, the Cardinals brought in run-centric Ken Whisenhunt as head coach and former Redskins' hog Russ Grimm as an assistant. They also added OT Levi Brown as a top fve selection in the NFL draft to bolster the offensive line. Whisenhunt has announced that he hopes to produce 550-600 team rushing attempts this year (similar to his days in Pittsburgh). He also has stated that he sees James getting 325 carries this year.

While 600 team carries is pretty much a pipe dream, 525 may not be. Allocating 25 attempts by QBs, that would leave 175 rushing attempts unaccounted for. Enter Marcel Shipp. Since J.J. Arrington has effectively been banished to special teams, that leaves Shipp as the beneficiary of what could be 100-150 carries (at least in theory). And that's with a HEALTHY James on the team (James has amassed over 3,100 career touches including the regular and post-season).

Since coming to town, Whisenhunt has been quick to praise Shipp. And here comes the best part: Shipp's ADP is . . . not even on the board. Based on the ADP data posted on the front page of the FBG website, Shipp is not even ranked in the top 283 draft picks. Obviously any running back could merit fantasy starting consideration if their team's #1 back went down with an injury. (Last year, Shipp scored three touchdowns in the one game Edge was banged up.) He may not be a fantasy difference maker, but he could see enough action that he may be OK as a bye-week filler. And he carries hardly any risk, as he should be available in the last round of almost every fantasy draft.

Jerious Norwood - Atl - by Aaron Rudnicki

The Falcons have finished with the #1 rushing offense in the league in each of the past three years. Obviously, Michael Vick plays a big role in that, but there are still plenty of remaining yards to go around. Warrick Dunn has been remarkably consistent and durable throughout his career, but he's now 32 years old and coming off back to back 280-carry seasons. Dunn can still be productive as part of a committee, but his average of 4.0 yards per carry last season was his lowest since 2002. Jerious Norwood, however, is coming off an impressive rookie season in which he averaged 6.4 yards per carry. Not only is Norwood a younger RB than Dunn, he's also bigger, stronger, and more of a home run threat.

Bobby Petrino was hired from Louisville to be the new head coach, and while his teams consistently put up great passing numbers, they were always built around a strong ground attack that helped keep defenses honest. Based on some of the moves made this offseason, it appears that the Falcons will likely be shifting to more of a power running offense than they've used in the past. They gave a lucrative contract to fullback Ovie Mughelli, one of the best lead blockers in the league, which should create added running room. The team also brought in one of the best run blockers in the draft when they selected guard Justin Blalock in round two. Petrino has also indicated that he plans to get both running backs much more involved in the passing game. If things go according to plan, the 60 receptions by all Falcons RBs a year ago could be doubled this year.

Having Vick in the lineup will continue to draw most of the attention from opposing defenses, which should lead to favorable running opportunities for the RBs. Even if Vick were to miss time due to suspension or injury, that would likely force them to rely more heavily on their running game anyway. Bottom line here is that although Dunn figures to begin the year as the starter in Atlanta -- and will likely be drafted higher as a result -- there's an excellent chance that Norwood will take over the feature back job soon, and he should be very productive when given the opportunity. Both RBs are being drafted right around the same spot, but Norwood has an excellent chance to exceed his draft position while Dunn has a much better chance to disappoint.

Adrian Peterson - Chi - by Will Grant

While other guys in your league are running out to draft Ladell Betts in the sixth round or Michael Turner in the eighth, sit back and grab one of the biggest upside potential RBs that you can find near the tail end of your draft.

Adrian Peterson is going in the 14th round, and he is the primary backup to Cedric Benson in Chicago this season. Benson is a guy who has only touched the ball 274 times over the last two seasons (including the playoffs). By contrast, the Bears ran the ball more than 500 times last season, and will probably do that again in 2007. Peterson is definitely going to see action on the field, and could end up with over 200 touches by the time December rolls around. Over the course of his career, Peterson has averaged 4.7 YPC, and just below ten yards per reception.

As Chicago's primary backup RB in 2005, Peterson averaged 5.1 YPC and had two games where he scored more than 12 fantasy points. Benson has a tendency to disappear in games (like the Super Bowl!), and he has never been a 'lock' to start 16 games. Peterson will definitely get some playing time and could be the starting RB for the Bears if Benson is injured or ineffective. Finding a guy who has that much upside in the 14th round is huge value and is an easy pick for anyone to make.

Any Cleveland RB other than Lewis - by David Dodds

Jamal Lewis is only 27 years old, but he has already lost multiple steps. He has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry over the last two years while his backups did a lot more in limited time (Chester Taylor had 4.2 YPC in 2005, Mike Anderson had 4.7 YPC in 2006, Musa Smith had 4.2 YPC in 2006). Adding to the bad news, Lewis will now be running in an offense he is unfamiliar with (and has arguably a worse offensive line).

The Browns were 31st in rushing last season managing just 1,335 yards on 372 carries. Adding an aging running back that breaks few tackles and gets to the hole slowly has the makings for a comedy (or tragedy depending on your team affiliation). I do not see Jamal Lewis holding on to this starting job past the mid-season mark as losses (and bad games) mount. There will be a lot of pressure on this coaching staff to not be the laughing stock of the NFL.

I am not overly excited about the Cleveland backups, but think almost any warm body can do better than Lewis. Jerome Harrison is the biggest unknown and probably has the best chance at making a splash in his second season. He wasn't given much of a chance last year after an outstanding college career. At Washington State, he totaled 2,800 yards (5.8 YPC) while scoring 25 TDs in 22 games (16 starts). He amassed at least 100 yards rushing in his final 14 games, including four 200-yard rushing performances. He is currently being undrafted in most leagues so his risk to reward could never be better. Jason Wright supposedly is the backup to Jamal Lewis right now. He has not done much in the three years he has been in the league, but did manage 74 yards last year against the Steelers in week 11.

Mike Bell - Den - by Clayton Gray

Mike Bell may not be the most gifted back around, but his strengths are well-suited for the Broncos' ground attack. Bell running style is to find the hole and attack it. He has nice size with a good initial burst and just flat out runs hard, and that is exactly what HC Mike Shanahan wants to see.

So what's the problem? Of course he is firmly behind newly-acquired Travis Henry. With Henry in Denver, Bell is certainly a reserve. However, there is room for Bell to have decent fantasy production. Below, you will see the percentage of carries the backup RBs were given while Shanahan has been in Denver.

• 1995 - 29% of 335 total carries
• 1996 - 24% of 455 total carries
• 1997 - 19% of 456 total carries
• 1998 - 14% of 458 total carries
• 1999 - 32% of 408 total carries
• 2000 - 35% of 457 total carries
• 2001 - 57% of 406 total carries
• 2002 - 31% of 398 total carries
• 2003 - 39% of 472 total carries
• 2004 - 40% of 459 total carries
• 2005 - 50% of 474 total carries
• 2006 - 45% of 426 total carries
• Avg - 35% of 434 total carries

That last line tells us that non-starting Bronco RBs have averaged a total of 150 carries per season under Shanahan. Just as Bell will not challenge Henry for the starting nod, Bell is cemented as the primary backup as the other backs on the roster (Cecil Sapp, Selvin Young, Kyle Johnson, Paul Smith, etc.) have little chance of moving into the RB2 role. This tells us that Bell will receive the lion's share of backup carries. However, there is a chance he'll have a couple of very nice games. In Henry's six-year career, he has played a full 16-game season only once. Last season, he missed two games completely and was listed as questionable five times. He is certainly prone to miss action. Bell has proven capable of filling in as a spot starter and will pay huge dividends those weeks.

Last season, Bell saw 157 carries and finished the season ranked as the 30th fantasy RB. He is currently being taken as the 46th RB off the board at the 11.03 spot. Based on the number of carries available in Denver, that appears to be his floor. He is a nice addition to any fantasy roster, but he is a must-have for any team with Travis Henry.

Tatum Bell - Det - by Mark Wimer

Tatum Bell is poised to begin the 2007 regular season as the starting running back in Detroit, as there are serious injury concerns regarding Kevin Jones (rehabbing a fractured foot), Shawn Bryson (knee injury) and Brian Calhoun (knee injury) -- all three were listed on June 8th by coach Rod Marinelli as candidates to start the 2007 on the physically unable to perform list. If Jones, Bryson and Calhoun are on the PUP list to start the year, they'll have to miss the first six weeks of games played. In addition, no one is really sure how long it will be until Jones is back to 100% - his recovery could stretch even longer than the first six weeks of regular season.

A lot can happen during a six-week stretch in the NFL -- if Bell performs well and stays healthy, Jones and company may find it difficult to get back on the field come mid-season. In short, Bell has a golden opportunity to show the Lions what he can do as the team's featured back -- that is an opportunity that not many "backup" RBs will have on their plate right out of the gate during 2007. Last year, while splitting time with Mike Bell in Denver, Bell cranked out 233/1025/2 rushing (a very respectable 4.4 yards per rush) and 24/115/0 receiving. Bell would see more carries and receptions this season in the event that he seizes and retains the top job in Detroit.

Among the various backup RBs in the NFL, Tatum Bell has the best shot at squeezing out his competition and becoming "the man" in Detroit. He's definitely worth a roll of the dice as your #3 fantasy RB -- right now, it appears you'll get at least six weeks of starting RB carries and receptions from him, at worst. The best case scenario is that he impresses Mike Martz and the other coaches and becomes the next "Martz back" -- Marshall Faulk had some pretty great seasons in this offense...that's a lot of upside, folks.

DeDe Dorsey - Ind - by Sigmund Bloom

DeDe Dorsey is set to become the most important DeDe since the Ramones stopped touring in 1996. If you're looking for a plum backup RB situation combined with bargain basement value, you need look no further than the NAIA legend from Lindenwood.

The first reaction to a mention of Dorsey is usually, "Who?", so let's answer that question. During his NAIA collegiate career, Dorsey was an All-American on both offense and defense, and blocked an astounding 19 kicks. He also returned four interceptions for touchdowns. This is the kind of dominance you would want to see from a tiny school player if you had any hope of them fitting in at the next level.

Dorsey was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Bengals and proceeded to run 20 times for 149 yards and catch three passes for 80 yards in the preseason. Cincinnati tried to slip him through to the practice squad at the end of camp and the Colts pounced, showing no reluctance to leave Dorsey on the 53 man roster all year as a special teamer to retain his rights. Clearly they have seen something they like in him, as they let last year's starting running back Dominic Rhodes leave in free agency and did not bolster the RB corps in the draft. Dorsey is the clear #2 on the depth chart in Indy as of press time.

The Colts have said that they are sticking with the two-back system they employed last year, and that points directly to a good amount of touches for Dorsey. Dorsey's outlook gets even better when you consider the possibility of starter Joseph Addai getting hurt. Addai has never carried a full load in his career, pro or college, so it's a win-win for Dorsey owners. Either Dorsey gets the touches to have some fantasy value, or the Colts push Addai so hard they run the risk of him breaking down, giving Dorsey the potential for even more fantasy value than he would as the lesser part of an RBBC. If you're skeptical that an unheralded RB can do something in Indy, take a look at what undrafted rookie free agent Dominic Rhodes did in 2001 -- over 1300 total yards and nine touchdowns. Peyton Manning creates production for ANY running back. Last, and least, is Dorsey's cost. You can probably get him in the last round of your draft because of the "who?" factor -- extreme value for a player one injury away from being a big part of the Colts offense.

Lorenzo Booker - Mia - by Jeff Pasquino

The NFL is a copycat league. With the success of the final four teams last year using some form of a two-running back system, more and more teams will be emulating that approach as much as they can.

The Miami Dolphins once had two solid RBs. In 2005, Miami used both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams effectively to have both finish in the top 30 RBs for the year in FBG scoring. They lacked that second RB to compliment Brown last season, so they drafted Lorenzo Booker in the third round this year. Booker is the clear cut #2 running back in Miami with little or no competition for that role.

Booker has the skill set of a solid running back, something that was not utilized properly by his coaching staff at Florida State. He has the physical tools to excel at the NFL level, some of which are shown here, but the reasons to like Booker go well beyond his abilities on the field. His character is solid and his understanding of the game is strong. He has the desire to prove himself not just worthy of a third round pick but more to show what he can do if and when he gets the chance to start.

The bottom line for me on choosing Booker as my answer to this question is the "price on draft day" portion. I certainly am not putting all my eggs in the Booker basket for this season. However, given his current ADP (RB#52, #163 overall), there is no question that I would pick Booker up as my fifth running back. I dare say that you won't find a guy with much more upside than Booker that late in a draft for this season.

When you are picking up guys as your fourth, fifth and sixth RBs for your team, there are two questions you have to ask. First, is this guy a handcuff to a back you already have. The second is even more important and the most overlooked. If given the opportunity to start, can this guy be a starting caliber player for my fantasy team? Booker is a definitive "YES" here.

Chester Taylor - Min - by Jason Wood

Chester Taylor did everything the Vikings could've asked for last year. He notched 1,200 yards rushing on 300 carries, added 42 receptions and scored six touchdowns for a team that was in the red zone far too infrequently thanks to a terrible passing attack. He finished the season as the 12th best fantasy running back and proved in the process that he can be a full-time workhorse. It was the kind of performance that might have led to a lucrative contract extension.

Instead, the Vikings rewarded Taylor by drafting Adrian Peterson in April with the seventh overall pick. Peterson has all the makings of a true franchise back, someone that could be the Vikings offensive centerpiece for years to come. While his presence certainly lowers expectations for Chester Taylor, he should still be on your short list on draft day for a number of reasons.

1. Adrian Peterson is a rookie and must adjust to NFL blocking schemes in order to see the field full time
2. The Vikings are grooming a very young, unproven passing attack and will see ample reason to use Taylor and Peterson liberally in a committee approach
3. Peterson has an injury history that can't be ignored

Unlike many backup running backs, we KNOW Chester Taylor can be a fantasy force if he's given the chance. It's entirely possible Taylor will be the nominal starter in which case he's a no brainer. But even if Peterson gets the nod, recognize that Taylor will be valuable particularly in leagues that reward points per reception.

Sammy Morris - NE - by Chris Smith

Everybody is looking at Laurence Maroney to lead the Patriots in rushing this year and deservedly so. However he has big question marks in regards to his durability and has been battling injuries this offseason. If the durability question marks become a reality in 2007, Sammy Morris, an eight-year veteran will have the best chance to reap the benefits in New England.

Reasons to pick up Morris as a late-round draft choice

1. Patriots offense will be strong: A good offensive line, a very good offensive scheme, QB Tom Brady and a revamped receiving corps should lead to tons of opportunities for the starting running back this season. Defenses will be forced to play back, respecting the pass which will open up the running lanes.
2. Starting RB Maroney has durability issues: There is no questions that Maroney is the starter, but with his possible durability issues there is some opportunity for a backup RB to shine.
3. Morris is steady when called upon: He rushed for 523 yards and scored six touchdowns in 2004.

Reuben Droughns - NYG - by Marc Levin

The New York Giants had the 13th best offense in the NFL in 2006, which was predominately due to a seventh place ranking in rush yards and sixth in YPA. To compensate for the retirement of featured RB Tiki Barber, the Giants turn to third year man Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs is as interesting a fantasy prospect as Reuben Droughns, who was signed to back him up. Given the Giants' propensity to feed the RB position, both Jacobs and Droughns have good fantasy value.

In 2006, Jacobs and Barber split 424 of the Giants' 455 carries, with 328 going to Barber. There were 110 passes to the RBs, with 82 to Barber and an equal number (14) going to Jacobs and starting FB Jim Finn. Droughns has an established history as an effective pass catcher, lead blocker, and featured HB. It is reasonable to assume that he will not only carry the ball 100 or so times behind a healthy and effective Jacobs, but that he will pick up much of the receiving slack left by Barber. Droughns will be especially valuable in PPR leagues. But, his value will be tremendous in all leagues if Jacobs struggles or is injured in the Giants' first few games.

That is true even if the Giants move Droughns to the FB position following a season-ending injury to Finn. Droughns will be on the field more often, will have increased opportunity for touches, and will try, once again, to prove he deserves a starting HB role. It was from the FB position that Droughns earned feature HB duties for the Broncos in 2004.

As of this writing, Droughns' ADP is the RB46 and 132nd overall player. He represents tremendous RB value in the 11th or 12th round, especially when compared to the other RBs available at that point. Droughns has a good chance of seeing over 175 touches this year, even if Jacobs remains healthy and efficient. And if Jacobs is injured or inefficient, Droughns would be the featured HB on a good rushing offense.

Any Oakland RB other than Jordan - by Andy Hicks

Whether he likes it or not, LaMont Jordan is part of the Raiders side which has gone a combined 6-26 over the last two years. Jordan will be playing in his fourth different offense in four years, and with only one season inside the top 40 running backs he faces a stiff challenge to live up to his draft slot this year. Oakland has brought in Super Bowl winner Dominic Rhodes in free agency and drafted Michael Bush with pick 100 in the NFL draft. Lamont Jordan had to take a pay cut to remain with the Raiders, and with a substantial rise in salary for the next two years he faces being a lame duck this season. Rhodes and Bush come in with the new coaching staff and present much better draft value. Don't expect starting production immediately from either, but they do present more upside than Jordan.

Rhodes comes over from the Colts after destroying the Bears in Super Bowl XLI. With the Raiders expected to run the ball more this year, Rhodes is the perfect back to share carries and if need be carry the load on his own. Rhodes hits the line harder than Jordan who prefers to wait for a hole. With Tom Cable coming from Atlanta to coach the offensive line, improvement can only be expected on the terrible o-line play from 2006. Rhodes will initially complement Jordan but expect Jordan to once again disappoint those who draft him. It can be argued that Jordan and Rhodes are basically the same kind of player. Why not take the one who'll be drafted three rounds later?

Michael Bush is the wild card. The Raiders will be patient in his recovery from a broken leg but could find themselves with their future starter by the season's end. Bush is something different altogether from the others. He was a top 10 talent with running instincts, size and speed at a skill level neither Rhodes nor Jordan possess. The Raiders believe he will be ready by training camp, and if that's the case, he should be in the mix and ready to pounce when given the chance. Keep an eye on the progress of Michael Bush through training camp, because at his current draft slot he offers a massive upside for little risk.

Michael Turner - SD - by Maurile Tremblay

Most NFL backups do not add a lot of expected value to one's fantasy roster, except perhaps as handcuffs. They are not expected to play much, and even if they do there is little reason to expect stellar success. They are backups for a reason, after all.

There are always exceptions, however. Last year Maurice Jones-Drew and Ladell Betts began the season as NFL backups and ended it as fantasy starters. Two years ago Larry Johnson came off to finish as the number two fantasy RB overall.

This year there are two backup RBs I'd be happy to own even if I don't own the starters ahead of them: Jerious Norwood and Michael Turner. Both are tremendously talented runners who play for teams that emphasize the running game. Each is likely to contribute enough on a weekly basis that he can be an adequate bye-week fill-in even in a backup role (with Norwood having the edge in that area). Moreover, if either takes over as his team's featured runner for any part of the season, he has Serious Stud Potential (with Turner having the upper hand here).

The main difference between Norwood and Turner is their average draft positions. While Norwood is going in the mid-sixth round in an average 12-team league, Michael Turner is lasting until the end of the eighth round. Securing a player with Michael Turner's upside potential in the eighth round of a 12-team draft is a major coup. If Tomlinson stays healthy all year, Turner might be a wasted pick -- an acceptable risk at that point in the draft -- but if Tomlinson is injured, it is hard to overstate the impact Turner could have.

Consider these two facts: (1) LaDainian Tomlinson led the league in rushing last year (and in total fantasy points); and (2) many close observers of the Chargers, including me, believe that there is no significant drop-off in rushing ability from Tomlinson to Turner.

To a large extent, a backup RB's fantasy potential is determined by how well he'd do if he took over the starting role. By that measure, Turner is head-and-shoulders above the league's other backup RBs, and yet he comes at a very reasonable price. That makes him the best value out of all the backup RBs.

Ladell Betts - Was - by Colin Dowling

Quick question...what current backup NFL running back is (a) behind a constantly and currently injured starter, (b) has shown himself to be an able feature-back in extended duty, and (c) has been in the news often this offseason with regard to his coach's intent to "increase his role" in the 2007 season?

If you guessed Ladell Betts of the Washington Redskins, you would be correct. That said, Betts still flies considerably under the radar, which baffles the mind. Fortunately, such relative obscurity can pay off big on draft day. In 2006, Betts had almost 1,600 yards and 5 touchdowns. I suspect if he'd crossed the goalline a few more times, he'd be getting more attention. As it is, he has shown an ability to get 4.7 yards per carry when called on.

Betts is currently behind Clinton Portis on the Washington depth chart. All things considered, that is not a terrible place to be. Al Saunders' offense has produced some stunning rushing statistics in years past under the tutelage of Marty Schottenheimer. As for Portis, he missed eight games last season and is currently rehabbing various injuries, hoping to be at 100% when the season begins.

The price of drafting Betts -- currently coming off the board as the 34th or 35th running back selected, near the beginning of the eight round -- may seem high until you consider that of all the running backs being selected in that range, Betts is the only one in such a favorable position, in such a productive offense, and with a history of high production.

It is of course no lock that Clinton Portis will find the sidelines with injury again, nor is it a lock that Betts will find an increased role regardless. But for my money, there is no more worthy selection of a backup running back deserving of a roster spot -- with or without the starter ahead of him - than Ladell Betts.