Faceoff - DL Mark Anderson, Chicago Bears

Posted 7/19, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Sigmund Bloom

Mark Anderson is a star in the making. The Bears see it, but if you're lucky, your league mates won't. Anderson was able to finish as the #18 overall DL in FBG scoring last year merely as a pass rush specialist. This year, all signs point to Anderson being a full-time starter, which means this is probably the last year that you can draft Anderson outside of the top 10-12 DL for a long time.

Anderson's play was shockingly good for a 5th round rookie. He was extremely athletic, but undersized coming out of Alabama. That fit the Bears needs to a tee, providing a shot in the arm to the pass rush. Adewale Ogunleye and Alex Brown were not getting consistent pressure so Anderson was employed on passing downs with astounding success. He ended the season with 12.5 sacks, good enough for a top 10 finish.

Even though Anderson was a startable DL on paper with his top 20 ranking, his role as a pass rush specialist made for a feast or famine pattern in his scoring. All that is about to change this year, as the Bears have all but handed him a starting job in the offseason. Anderson has been lining up as the starting right end in minicamp and OTAs, ahead of 2006 starter Alex Brown. The team and Brown have both been looking for possible trades, and he may move inside to DT on passing downs if he does stay with the team.

On a points per game basis, Anderson was actually startable last year. His role meant his production either helped you win or helped you lose, but nothing in between. This year, Anderson should be on the field even when it's not an obvious passing down, giving him the tackles in run support to even out the scoring rollercoaster. He's also going to have a full NFL offseason under his belt. The Chicago defense is going to remain one of the most fearsome in the league, and Anderson is the designated headhunter. He's going in the DE15-20 range, which is almost pessimistic. Anderson has a shot to finish as a DE1, and unless he backslides from last year's performance, he'll be a top DE2 at worst. I highly recommend spending an early pick to anchor your DL with Jason Taylor or Julius Peppers, but you can take your time getting a #2, because people are letting Anderson fall too far in IDP fantasy drafts.

Downside - by David Baker

Bears DE Mark Anderson exploded onto the IDP world with a blistering 7.5 sacks in his first seven games. Only six other NFL defensive linemen had more than Anderson's 12 total sacks. He even forced four fumbles. Pretty good for a rookie drafted in the fifth round that year. And while there's plenty to like about Anderson, I'm a bit more gun-shy about him than some others are for a couple very good reasons.

First of all, Anderson plays on a team with incredible depth at defensive end. Anderson could very well not be a starter in 2007. Although he picked up most of his numbers in a non-starting situation, it's not hard to realize that for Anderson to duplicate or improve upon those numbers he'll needed to start and play a lot more. The Bears already have Adewale Ogunleye, who is approaching 50 career sacks, as well as Alex Brown. Brown has been named an alternate to the Pro Bowl twice and has started every game since 2003, a rare occurrence for defensive linemen. He excels against the run and has averaged 50 total tackles and six sacks in his last four seasons. The Bears also used a second round draft pick on Dan Bazuin in this year's draft. While there has been speculation about the Bears moving Alex Brown, nothing has come to fruition at this point and the Bears would certainly not waste a talent like Brown on the bench. So while the Bears love the playmaking abilities Anderson offers, they have the kind of depth at the position that makes the chances of Anderson putting up huge numbers diminished.

There's also the worry of some sort of sophomore slump. Simeon Rice had 12.5 sacks his rookie year but only five the next year. Jevon Kearse had 14.5 sacks his rookie year, a number he has yet to match. Anderson only had sacks in three of the team's final nine regular season games. Is that a sign that teams are approaching Anderson differently? He's a little undersized and showed some sign of wearing down against the run both as the season went on and in later parts of games. Even if he is thrust into a starting role, he'll need to prove he can handle the beating he'll take and still put up good numbers.

Mark Anderson was nothing short of impressive his rookie year and surprised most out there with his production. He definitely fits nicely into the Bears long-term future and he'll get plenty of action in 2007. Will it be enough to warrant making him a top 12 defensive end? The Bears substantial depth at the position added with possible second year problems are enough to make me think twice before drafting him so highly. If the Bears move Alex Brown before opening day, Anderson's risk flies out the window. But unless that happens, don't take him as a top ten lineman.