Faceoff - DL Jared Allen, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted 7/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Aaron Rudnicki

Allen is coming off a season that saw him lead all defensive linemen in tackles and finish as the highest scoring fantasy DL. He has averaged just over 9 sacks/year during his 3 year career but his tackle numbers help set him apart at the DE position. Despite all that success, Allen's value will undoubtedly be pushed down by many IDP owners this year due to his 4-game suspension to begin the season. I happen to think that makes him a prime player to target though and I'll explain a few reasons why.

First, he'll only be missing 25% of the season and it's the first 4 games which aren't as critical as the mid and late-season games. Also, we have two pretty good examples from just last season of how elite players can still be productive despite a slow start or missed games. Aaron Schobel had just 3 solos, 5 assists, and 1 sack after 4 games last year and many people were considering cutting him. If so, they would have been pretty upset to see him average nearly 3 solos/game and add 13.5 sacks over the last 12 games of the season on his way to another top-10 finish among defensive linemen. Similarly, Shawne Merriman was suspended for 4 games in the middle of the season but he still managed to lead the league in sacks with 17 in 12 games. The best part about a player being suspended rather than just playing poorly is you can plug in a replacement player. So in terms of projecting Allen's impact to your team you would look at what you expect him to do during the 12 games he'll be eligible and add in what you could likely get from a backup on your team for the first 4 weeks. Provided you can pair him up with some adequate depth, I'm guessing that combined total will be a top-10 fantasy DL in most leagues.

Second, the Chiefs have made some significant upgrades around Allen that should make him a more productive pass rusher this year. Coming off a strong rookie season, Tamba Hali has emerged as a legitimate threat at the opposite DE spot, and that will help take some attention away from Allen. Donnie Edwards is one of the league's best cover linebackers so his signing should force the QBs to hold onto the ball just a little bit longer in passing situations. Napoleon Harris is a more effective blitzer than the player he will be replacing so he should help create some additional pressure up the middle as well.

Third and perhaps most importantly, Allen was a restricted free agent this offseason and although there were rumors that he might be a holdout threat if he didn't get a long-term contract, he wound up signing the 1-year tender. So, he'll be headed for unrestricted free agency next year and has an excellent chance to cash in if he can put up similar numbers to what he did last season. He has millions of reasons to stay out of trouble, focus on football, and put up the best possible numbers he can this year. I like players like that and I think Allen will probably wind up making a lot of IDP owners happy this year once he gets on the field.

Downside - by Bob Magaw

Allen led all DEs in tackles (66) in '06, adding 8 sacks and 5 FFs, after a stellar season in '05 in which he was top 10 among DEs in tackles (50) and sacks (11) and tied 2nd in the league in FFs (6), and following a 9 sack rookie season which foreshadowed the shape of things to come.

He will begin the season by serving a four game suspension due to multiple DUIs. He has a history of off-field problems reportedly dating back at least to college, and in the new zero tolerance for repeat offenders NFL climate, is just one indiscretion removed from an involuntary extension of his unpaid leave. Another suspension could add an extra half season on idle. Everybody must decide for themselves how much to weight this risk. Making the wrong call (in either direction) is even more fateful in dynasty leagues.

Going strictly by the numbers, lopping off four games of production from last year's #2 DL finish in FBG scoring would still yield a top 10 season. So if you have a good Plan B to get through to the quarter pole of the season, or are prepared to take the loss during that time, patience could be rewarded with powerhouse production the last dozen contests.

But we're here to examine his downside...

Other negatives include an increasingly contentious relationship with the KC front office, with his offseason suggestion that a trade might be best if a lucrative extension wasn't forthcoming (he's significantly outplayed his rookie contract)... though he didn't issue it as an ultimatum or threaten holdout. All signs point to his return to the team after the suspension is lifted, but he will be playing under the cloud of an uncertain financial future.

The Chiefs defense could be markedly improved in '07. While it awaits to be seen if promising but inexperienced safeties Bernard Pollard and Jarrad Page are an upgrade over Greg Wesley and Sammy Knight (already released), free agent LBs Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris along with a healthy Derrick Johnson should comprise one of the most improved LB trios in the league. The DL was made a focus of the recent draft, with the additions of DE/DT "Turk" McBride and DT "Tank" Tyler. Rookie sensation ('06) Tamba Hali is talented enough to beat Allen to the prize often in the race to the QB. If the stop unit gels quickly they could be much better than in recent seasons.

When doing projections, larger scale themes need to be accounted for. In general, defenses with bad offenses enjoy inflated, pumped up stats as they are on the field more (though that isn't the prediction here). A good defense can mean reduced stats. While this may seem counter-intuitive at first glance, a stout D gets off the field more often by limiting drives, overall offensive plays, and ultimately squeezing defensive scoring opps as a result. The prolific tackle numbers which have previously launched him into the IDP stratosphere may be harder to come by than in recent seasons.