Faceoff - RB Shaun Alexander, Seattle Seahawks

Posted 6/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Marc Levin

Shaun Alexander's injury marred and statistically unimpressive 2006 season could define the word aberration. Under common non-PPR scoring systems, he was the number one fantasy RB the previous two years. In his prior four seasons, his carries, rush yards, and yards per rush improved every year. In his prior six seasons, he missed no games and he scored at least 16 TDs each year.

Alexander was also one of the most consistent week-to-week scorers, yet he could blow up on any given week. He had only two games in 2003, four games in 2004, and two games in 2005 with fewer than 10 fantasy points. His games with more than 20 FF points increased from three in 2003, to seven in 2004, to nine in 2005. Four of those 20+ point games occurred in weeks 15 and 16.

Alexander's receiving numbers have plummeted every year since 2003, so he is less valuable in PPR leagues. I note the swift demise of RBs who run a lot but catch few passes and a good defense can more easily key on a star back who is not a receiving threat. Alexander, however, increased his fantasy numbers and scoring consistency as his targets diminished.

Alexander's ADP is the fifth overall pick, behind LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, and Frank Gore. Given the statistical anomaly of a 3.6 yards per rush, 7 TD, sub 1000 yard 2006 season, can we draft Alexander as an elite fantasy RB? I argue we can. A good argument exists for choosing Willie Parker fifth overall, but I believe it would be a mistake to let Alexander slip behind unproven commodities like Joseph Addai, Lawrence Maroney, and Reggie Bush, or behind Brian Westbrook, who has a propensity to suffer injuries.

Alexander is the focal point of the team's offense, especially near the goalline. As of this writing, he was in excellent shape and was practicing without restriction. Backup RB Maurice Morris failed to impress in his eight 2006 starts, so Alexander has no significant competition for carries. The Seahawks offensive scheme is unchanged. FB Mack Strong returns to lead block for Alexander. Despite the departure of WR Darrell Jackson, the Seahawks have a potent passing attack that will prevent defenses from stacking the line. The Seahawks' divisional opponents sported three of the league's five worst defenses in 2006.

The obvious counter arguments to picking Alexander near the top of the first round are an aging and ailing offensive line and a difficult out of division schedule. A player of Alexander's caliber, who is also the focal point of the team's offense, will succeed against any opponent. Though the team clearly missed G Steve Hutchinson in 2006, HC Mike Holmgren is making the correct adjustments by opening competition for both the RT and RG positions. It is reasonable to expect Alexander to return to numbers in the 1800 total yards and 20 total TD range.

Downside - by Sigmund Bloom

In a first round fraught with peril, Shaun Alexander is still worthy of a pick, just not in his familiar top 3-5 territory. There are just too many question marks to feel confident that he will return to uber-stud form.

Alexander still has the coveted fantasy role of a primary back that is the go-to option in the red zone. Even while he was struggling, he showed he still had a nose for the end zone, with five touchdowns in his last five games and two in the season-ending playoff loss to the Bears. In between touchdowns, he was only able to muster a 3.6 YPC, by far the worst of his career. Even Maurice Morris mustered a 3.8 YPC behind the same line while Alexander was out. When looking for the culprit for this precipitous drop, some might cite problems on the offensive line. Some would blame Alexander's age and mileage. Others would point to Alexander's lingering broken foot. It is ominous that none of these issues will go away in 2007.

Head coach Mike Holmgren is calling the right side of the Seahawks line an open competition in training camp, with grizzled vets Pork Chop Womack and Chris Gray battling to seize the right guard job. Sean Locklear has failed to take the right tackle job and run with it, and the team is hoping youngster Ray Willis will push him. The line did not dominate as in years past, lacking continuity and missing "franchise guard" Steve Hutchinson and retired center Robbie Tobeck. The line won't be as good as in 2005 and won't be as bad as last year, but where exactly they fall on that spectrum is uncertain.

Alexander turns 30 before the season begins, and he is close to the 2500 touch ledge for RBs. This is not troubling by itself, but it becomes a real red flag when combined the unavoidable reality that Alexander's lingering foot injury is one that might have come with wear and tear, and it has been slow to heal. We know that there was still a crack in the foot after the season-ending loss in Chicago. Alexander cryptically indicated that he wasn't sure if the foot was still broken at a May minicamp. Coach Holmgren's denial, calling the foot a "non-story" notwithstanding, the possibility of Alexander playing all year with a broken foot doesn't give you a warm fuzzy feeling. The main reassurance is that Alexander played with the condition last year, but that doesn't address the fact that he wasn't the old Alexander.

If you're sitting in the bottom half of the first and you can get a proven stud in a stable situation like Alexander, the choice is easy. If you're in the top five or six and looking at Alexander, there's reason to be hesitant. Those picks absolutely must hit or your team is sunk. Are you willing to trust Alexander and his foot to hold up and return to form?