Faceoff - RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts

Posted 8/6, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Upside - by Jeff Haseley

Last season, Joseph Addai made a big splash in the league with 1081 yards rushing on 226 carries ( 4.8 YPC) with 7 TDs. What's even more impressive is that he did this while splitting carries with Dominic Rhodes who had 187 carries of his own. Dominic Rhodes signed with Oakland in the off-season, which means Addai will be the Colts primary ball carrier in 2007. The Colts have mentioned that they will still use a two-back approach in the offense, but don't think for a minute that Addai won't cash in big time on some serious point production. The thought of Addai getting the majority of carries on such a potent offensive system should catapult him to top 10 RB status, if not top 5 or dare I say higher? My projections have him closer to the latter - here's why.

1. Targets to Colts RBs over the last 5 years (earliest first) 97, 110, 72, 70, 96. Last season's 96 targets to RBs were broken down by Addai with 50 and Rhodes with 46. Now take Rhodes out of this equation. See what I mean? Addai is going to see a lot of action on a high-octane offense, including numerous targets.
2. Addai had 22 receptions in post-season play last year (4 games), whereas Rhodes had only 7. The Colts utilized their best RB in the playoffs last year and Addai rose to the occasion. I think he'll see a hefty dose of passes once again this year. Nothing too extreme, but the Colts averaged 69 recs to RBs over the last four years. For Addai to reach 50 recs is not out of the question.
3. The Colts averaged 248 fantasy points per season out of their primary RB from 2005-2003 when they ran their offense with one primary back. The 2006 combo of RBs from Addai and Rhodes totaled 312.9 fantasy points. There's no reason not to think Addai can reach 250 fantasy points in 2007, which would rank him approximately at the 7th or even 6th best RB. 250 FP in 2006 would be between #7 Tiki Barber and #6 Brian Westbrook.

The Colts had 416 rushing attempts from RBs last year. If Addai is going to be the feature back, we can expect him to have about about 65-75% of the carries or about 280 to 315 carries. Addai averaged 4.8 YPC last season. Projecting his 2007 numbers using the above probable figures ( 4.8 YPC) equates to:

• 1344 yards on 280 carries
• 1392 yards on 290 carries
• 1440 yards on 300 carries
• 1488 yards on 310 carries
• 1536 yards on 320 carries

Figure in receptions and receiving yards Last year Addai (40) + Rhodes (36) had 76 receptions for a combined 7.5 YPR. Let's just project Addai with 50 recs at 7.5 YPR. That's 375 more yards on top of the rushing yards displayed above or a minimum of approx. 1700 and a ceiling of 1900 total yards.

Possible numbers for the year including fantasy points

• Minimum projections: 280 carries, 1344 yds rushing, 45 recs, 338 yds, 8 TDs or (1682 total yards, 45 rec, 8 TD) 261 FP (PPR), 216 FP (non-PPR) 2006 rank: 5
• Mediocre projections: 300 carries, 1440 yds rushing, 55 rec, 413 yds, 12 TDs or (1853 total yds, 55 rec, 12 TD) 312 FP (PPR), 257 FP (non-PPR) 2006 rank: 4
• Maximum projections: 320 carries, 1536 yds rushing, 65 rec, 488 yds, 15 TDs or (2024 total yds, 65 rec, 15 TD) 357 FP (PPR), 292 FP (non-PPR) 2006 rank: 2

Even with modest projections, Addai seems like a lock for the top 6 among RBs in 2007. Can be better than that? Sure. Exactly how much better, is up to you to decide, but the numbers suggest about 240-250 fantasy points, at the very minimum, which is definite top 10 among RBs.

Downside - by Chris Smith

Indianapolis Colts second-year running back Joseph Addai put together a good rookie campaign with the Colts last season. He finished as the 11th best fantasy running back, ran for 1,081 yards, caught 40 passes and scored 8 times. However there are reasons to be pessimistic about him jumping up above that 11th best fantasy slot which I'll expand on below.

Reasons to be wary of ranking Addai inside the top-six

1. Super Bowl hangover: It is always a concern just how a team will come out after winning the Super Bowl in the previous season. I think that is even a bigger worry for young players who get a taste of success in their first year as a pro. Addai stepped into a wonderful situation last year and everything was clicking for the Colts. Will everything run so smoothly in the running game this season? Will the Colts suffer from the championship hangover? Those are legitimate questions yet to be answered.
2. The retirement of Pro-Bowl offensive tackle Tarik Glenn left a huge hole at the left tackle position. It appears likely that rookie tackle Joe Ugoh will slot in as the starter which could very well have a negative impact on the Colts rushing attack.
3. Can Addai touch the ball enough to climb into top-five? Addai played in all sixteen games last season but averaged just 14 carries and 2.5 receptions per game. He was sharing time with departed running back Dominic Rhodes but he has yet to prove he can handle the wear and tear that 300+ touches in a season brings.
4. Better options at running back: I understand the attraction of selecting Addai early in round one. He plays for the Colts, he has good skills and he performed well as a rookie. However I see him being selected ahead of Shaun Alexander, Brian Westbrook and Willie Parker and I just don't see that at all.
5. Addai only scored in five games: Take away the 4 touchdowns in one game and Addai only scored 4 touchdowns in the other fifteen games. That isn't exactly a strong nose for the endzone.

Final thoughts

Joseph Addai is a good running back in a great situation. However he isn't a great running back and I'm not convinced he'll get the touches necessary to put him in as a top-six running back. In addition the loss of left tackle Tarik Glenn will hurt the running game and there is always the worry of a Super Bowl hangover to worry about. There are too many better options to put ahead of him at running back in my opinion and you shouldn't consider him until near the end of round one.