Dynasty Watch - Week 9
Posted 11/1 by Jeff Tefertiller, William Grant, and Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Adimchinobe Echemandu, RB, Houston Texans
What has he done so far
The 26 year old goes by the name "Joe". This is his fourth team in his four years in the NFL. Joe only had eight career carries coming into the week seven game against the San Diego Chargers. In the game he had ten carries for 62 yards and added a pair of receptions for another eleven yards. The 5'10", 225-pound Nigerian played college football at the University of California.
Current Situation
Joe and Ron Dayne are the backup running backs behind veteran Ahman Green. Green missed the game against the Chargers and could miss this week's matchup against the Raiders. There is talk of Echemandu passing Dayne as the primary backup to Green. The Texans are riddled wit injuries and have a bye in week ten.
Spotlight ETA
The Houston Chronicle quoted Texans general manager Rick Smith as saying, "I'm pleased with what I saw of him," said Smith, who signed Echemandu to the practice squad before elevating him to the roster last week. "He can help us. He's got good vision. He's got some size and speed. He's got the power to run inside and the quickness to run outside." This is a ringing endorsement for the former Raider.
Dynasty Upside
The Texans are a team without much hope for the playoffs. They will give extended looks to their young players like Echemandu. He will have his chance to shine in the last half of the season. It is way too soon to project his upside, but the former Cal Bear could be a viable part of the offense. He only played one year of college football, but was very productive as a runner and receiver. The produce of Nigeria had over 1,300 total yards and 13 touchdowns in 13 games. With the heavy workload in college, it can be assumed he could flourish with 15-20 carries a game in the NFL.
Final Thoughts
The four-year veteran played very well in Oakland during the preseason. The Raiders were very high on the young ball carrier. The Texans do not have a back for the future and "Joe" could fill a role going forward. He is versatile and could be a vital part of the offense going forward if Green misses much time.
Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers
What has he done so far
Ryan Grant first entered the NFL in April of 2005, but he wasn't drafted. He was signed by the New York Giants as an undrafted free agent. The running back from Notre Dame showed enough during training camp and preseason to stick with the club on the practice squad for all of 2005, and then he further fell off the radar when he was placed on IR in 2006 for a hand and wrist injury in the offseason. Grant stepped up in 2007 to try and take a piece of the void left by the retired Tiki Barber, but with Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Reuben Droughns all ahead of him on the depth chart he had little opportunity and even less future in New York. Just before final cuts prior to the 2007 season, Green Bay traded for Grant in exchange for a future draft pick next year.
Current Situation
After yet another running back started for the Packers and fell by the wayside, Ryan Grant found his opportunity. DeShawn Wynn was slated to start on Monday Night Football against the Broncos in Denver, but after one carry he hurt his shoulder. Fortunately for the Packers, Grant has acclimated well to his new team and was practicing often with the first team prior to Week 8. Grant stepped up and delivered a 100-yard rushing effort, gaining 104 yards on 22 carries and added seven more on three catches out of the backfield.
Spotlight ETA
After this past week's effort, head coach Mike McCarthy quickly stated that he will be the starting tailback for the Packers in Week 9. Given all the unrest in Green Bay's running attack this year, the undrafted former Golden Domer may have found a new home lining up behind Brett Favre.
Dynasty Upside
He's young and he plays on a winning team that can move the ball. The Packers have been desperately seeking a starting tailback to rely on since Ahman Green left town, running through the likes of Vernand Morency, Wynn and Brandon Jackson. Grant was picked up and brought in for a reason, and now he gets to show why he can be the main man in Green Bay. If he continues to average over four yards a carry and also catch a few balls out of the backfield, the job could be his for several years.
Final Thoughts
Sometimes players seem to come out of nowhere, but when opportunities are afforded to players and they rise to the occasion, you have to take notice. What really should alert savvy fantasy owners is that Ryan Grant was traded for at the trailing end of the preseason, which shows that the Packers wanted to get him and not let him touch the waiver wire, and also that he had draft value (as they gave up a 2008 draft pick). Grant could be another RB that goes on the list of starters who were formerly not drafted, or are on their original team.
Kelvin Hayden, CB, Indianapolis Colts
What has he done so far
Hayden was a second round pick (#60 overall) out of Illinois for the Colts in 2005. He was the eighth DB taken that season, and the second DB taken by the Colts (Marlin Jackson was taken in round 1). Over his first two seasons, Hayden was primarily a backup and special teams player, amassing just 47 solo tackles, 15 assists, 1 fumble recovery and 2 pass defenses over his first two seasons. Hayden came alive down the stretch for the Colts last season, and he put the Bears away in the Super Bowl last season with a 56 yard INT return in the 4th quarter.
Current Situation
Hayden secured the starting job opposite Jackson this season for the Colts and has amassed a pretty solid season for a CB. For the season he has 41 solo tackles, five assists, one INT and six PDs through the first seven games. From a consistency prospective, Hayden has only one game with less than five solo tackles: week three against the Texans where he had three solo tackles and two pass defenses. Not too bad for a CB.
Spotlight ETA
Hayden has been dangling on the waiver wire in most dynasty leagues all season. While five solo tackles per week is pretty good for a corner back, it is closer to the average stats that most strong safeties put up each week as they help stop the run. However, given his consistency in his production so far, Hayden still makes a good DB candidate in most fantasy leagues, and should be a starter in any league that requires a CB.
Dynasty Upside
Hayden has already broken his career best for defensive stats this season, and if his current pace keeps up, he should finish as one of the top DBs from and IDP prospective. He has one more year on his contract with the Colts, and you can expect that they will want to tie him up for the long haul. Given that Jackson is on the other side of the field, Hayden should always draw more action each game, and should always be a consistent source of fantasy points.
Final Thoughts
In his first season as a starter, Hayden has really turned in a solid performance. At this pace he should finish in the top 15 for fantasy DBs and will be one of the top corner backs. In 2008, he'll be entering his second season as a starter and will be in a contract year, which should give him even more upside potential next season. Hayden is probably still available as a waiver wire pickup in most leagues, and should definitely be worth a roster spot. In leagues that require a CB, Hayden is a must have and should be added if he's still available.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Sage Rosenfels, QB, Houston Texans
Rosenfels may finally get the opportunity he has wanted for several years. The former Iowa State star has bounced around several teams waiting for his chance to prove his skills. With the injury problems of Matt Schaub, the seven-year veteran might get a chance to start a few games this season. He has never started more than one game in a given season. The 29-year old has already appeared in three games this season. He has thrown six touchdowns in only 74 passing attempts, which is a pretty good average, especially with Andre Johnson out. In addition, the former Cyclone has a 7.4 yards per pass attempt average. Sage has a good arm and makes plays. The one thing fantasy owners need to watch out for is the turnovers. Rosenfels has five interceptions to go with the six touchdowns and has lost a fumble. He could be a good spot starter this week against Oakland in his first start this season.
Quinn Gray, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Gray has never really had a chance to prove his worth to the Jaguars. He was the third string quarterback for a couple of years. With the release of Byron Leftwich, Gray moved up the ladder to be David Garrard's backup. When Garrard injured his ankle, Gray got his opportunity. The Florida A&M star did not look good relieving Garrard in week six. He improved slightly in week seven, but only managed 100 passing yards and no rushing yards. Many expected the 6'3, 250-pound passer to run more in week seven against the Buccaneers, but he had zero yards rushing. The 28 year old leads his team against the Saints in week nine, which should provide a good matchup for the four-year veteran. Garrard will miss a few more weeks and this might be Quinn Gray's only opportunity to shine.
Jeff King, TE, Carolina Panthers
King was first noticed as an every down tight end for the Virginia Tech Hokies, and he was drafted by a team that desperately needed to fill that position last year. Carolina took him in the fifth round of the 2006 NFL Draft, and King showed signs of what was to come toward the end of his rookie season. King closed the 2006 campaign with a touchdown and then outpaced all other tight ends on the Panther roster heading into this year. Now, even with quarterback issues in Carolina, King has been a steady contributor by catching 28 of 42 targets for 271 yards and a touchdown in seven games, highlighted by a 10 catch performance in Week 8. King looks to be the starting TE for the Panthers for many years to come.
Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Indianapolis Colts
While looking for much out of a rookie wide receiver is always considered to be a risky proposition, Gonzalez plays on a perennial powerhouse of an offense with the Colts. To expedite his arrival, Marvin Harrison has had health issues, which has opened the door for Gonzalez to contribute in his first season. He has already started three games this season and while he has yet to find the end zone, he has grabbed 14 of his 20 targets on the year for 194 yards. The last pick of the first round of the 2007 NFL Draft, Gonzalez looks to be in a position to contribute some this season but eventually grow into at worst the third WR for Peyton Manning and Indianapolis, and at best could start opposite of Reggie Wayne for the next several years.
David Patten, WR, New Orleans Saints
OK, David Patten doesn't exactly scream 'Dynasty Value.' But he has posted two 100+ yard games out of his last three and is averaging seven targets per game over that same stretch. That makes him worth keeping an eye on at this point. He's currently #2 in receiving yards on the team (just seven behind Marques Colston). Perhaps the biggest stat isn't found on Patten's player page: The Saints have a three game winning streak going. After starting the season 0-4, head coach Sean Payton said that he wanted to make some dramatic changes to turn the team around. Featuring Patten seems to be one of them. As we saw last season with Colston when he came from nowhere to make the starting lineup, Payton will do whatever it takes to keep his team winning. If that means featuring David Patten over Devery Henderson or Lance Moore, so be it. Patten's long term potential isn't very promising from a Dynasty Prospective, but how many fantasy teams can pass up a WR that is seeing seven targets a game? If this continues, Patten might just be that little boost that helps get a team into the playoffs this year.
Tanard Jackson, FS, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jackson beat out Will Allen for the starting free safety position for the Buccaneers this season. He's a 4th round pick out of Syracuse for Tampa this season and he has been an excellent addition to their secondary. While his stats aren't quite at the level that would make him a starting DB in most IDP leagues, he's definitely worth keeping an eye on as he begins to develop. Sabby Piscitelli was drafted in most leagues as a flyer in the later dynasty rounds, but he's on IR now after putting up nominal stats, and has been dropped in most leagues to make room for other IR candidates. If you're looking for a long term prospect at DB, and have a few roster spots to burn, Jackson is definitely worth considering.
