Dynasty Watch - Week 8
Posted 10/25 by Jeff Tefertiller, Sigmund Bloom, and Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Chris Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
What has he done so far
Henry carried the ball 11 times for 57 yards and a touchdown in his regular season debut last week. Most the carries came on a second half drive to seemingly ice the game. The Arizona product also caught two balls for 12 yards in the game.
Current Situation
Henry got his shot because Chris Brown missed week 7 with an ankle injury. Brown should return this week, and Jeff Fisher has not indicated that Chris Henry passed Brown with his week 7 performance. The team seemed unsure of Henry before last week, also signing Quinton Ganther from the practice squad, so they haven't shown much faith in him so far. Brown will continue to be the second fiddle in the RBBC as long as he physically can, but Brown has only played more than eleven games once in his career, so Henry could get the call again soon.
Spotlight ETA
Henry is poised to get a greater opportunity in 2008 because Brown only signed a one year deal. The Titans will want to see what they have in the second round pick, unless he's been a complete bust in practice.
Dynasty Upside
Henry could evolve into an RB2 in Tennessee because of the stability and run blocking quality of the offensive line, and the presence of Vince Young, a developing QB who is enough of a threat as a runner to preoccupy defenses. Henry has more strength and speed than LenDale White, and he's a much better receiver out of the backfield. The talent gap could be enough for Henry to become the primary back if he develops well. The team is also devoted to the run to such a degree that Henry could become a solid RB3/Flex even if he does not dislodge White from the top spot - although White could always dislodge himself.
Final Thoughts
Henry was laughed at as a second round pick because of his lack of success at the collegiate level, but there's no denying that Henry showed the physical tools on Sunday that made the Titans fall in love with his potential at the draft. He's already been written off by some, but Henry did not seem to dance nearly as much on Sunday as he did back at Arizona. Henry has a shot to become the RB next to VY, one of the most plum spots in football, just ask Cedric Benson - don't underestimate what that is worth, and how much it lets an RB get away with.
Jesse Chatman, RB, Miami Dolphins
What has he done so far
Yes, yes, yes... We know. Chatman is the "hot pickup" off the waiver wire this week with the loss of Ronnie Brown in Miami. But who is Jesse Chatman? Well, in case you didn't know - he's no spring chicken. Chatman was an undrafted free agent signed by the San Diego Chargers in 2002 and has a journeyman running back in the NFL ever since. After three seasons for the Chargers, including his best season in 2004 where he gained 392 yards rushing, Chatman left for the Dolphins - but this was just his first stop in Miami. In 2005 Chatman moved to New Orleans, but never got any playing time, so he returned to the Dolphins in 2006, where he has been ever since. Chatman's latest stint with the club has been productive, as he has shown glimpses of solid production in the 2007 preseason, where he scored two touchdowns including a 74 yard sprint against Jacksonville.
Current Situation
Miami's feature tailback was Ronnie Brown right up until Week 7 when Brown blew out his ACL. Enter Chatman as the new starting tailback for the Dolphins, a role that Chatman can certainly fill. Chatman actually did reasonably well against the Patriots, picking up 82 total yards and a score against them in Week 7, but most of that was "garbage time" production.
Spotlight ETA
The limelight will be on Chatman "across the pond" in Week 8 as Miami takes on the New York Giants in England this coming Sunday. Chatman has already been given the starting assignment and should receive the bulk of the workload. The Dolphins may work in rookie Lorenzo Booker along with Patrick Cobbs (who will be the primary backup for now), but the vast majority of the work will go to Chatman.
Dynasty Upside
Not really. Chatman is 28 years old and has not really established himself as the type of rusher that can carry the heavy workload of a featured tailback in an NFL offense for 16 games. The best bet for him and his career would be for him to latch on to a team that employs the en vogue "committee" system, where he could split time and get 125-175 touches in a season. So if the current career of Fred Taylor or Chester Taylor excites you, by all means go after Chatman for beyond 2007, but picture that as his ceiling. Chatman's peak value will likely be for the next two months as the fill in for the Dolphins.
Final Thoughts
While it is hard to get excited about either Jesse Chatman or the Miami Dolphins, a starting NFL tailback is a starting NFL tailback. That job description will always have value in fantasy football, especially for those who will get 20 or more touches on a regular basis. If you are pushing for a title this year and are in "win now" mode, or even if you were riding Ronnie Brown this season, you may enjoy his exploits over the next eight or nine games - then trade him for whatever you can get.
Brandon Stokley, WR, Denver Broncos
What has he done so far
Brandon Stokley is best known as Peyton Manning's safety net. But, the nine-year veteran has found it difficult to stay healthy. In his previous eight seasons, he has played more than half of the games just three times. Also, many remember the huge season in 2004 where the 31 year old had 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Current Situation
Stokley is now starting in Denver with the knee injury to Javon Walker. Brandon Marshall, the only other viable receiver for the Broncos, was arrested Monday night for a DUI. This is was to be the "last chance" for Marshall after a history of off of the field problems. With the Travis Henry suspension, too, the Broncos need a playmaker. They need Stokley to be that playmaker.
Spotlight ETA
In the first full game for Stokley as the starting receiver, he enjoyed a good game. He totaled five receptions for 70 yards and a scoring grab. This was against the stout Pittsburgh Steeler defense. The former Colt and Raven has established him as the safety blanket for quarterback Jay Cutler. This is Walker's second injury to the same knee in three years. With the Marshall troubles, Stokley has a great opportunity to prove himself outside of the Colt offense.
Dynasty Upside
As long as the 5'11", 192-pound receiver is starting for the Broncos, Stokley's upside is around WR30, making him a decent flex option in most leagues. If Marshall is disciplined this season, the former Colt could be a top 20 receiver. Brandon Stokley will never be the huge downfield threat or an explosive pass catcher like Javon Walker, but he has the opportunity to put up good fantasy numbers and surprise many.
Final Thoughts
With all of the troubles for the Broncos, Jay Cutler needs Brandon Stokley to step up and provide the sure-handed clutch receptions they are missing. Brandon Stokley is a great receiver to stash on a dynasty roster. With the problems for Marshall and Walker, Stokley could be serviceable and a great spot starter in the future.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Patrick Cobbs, RB, Miami Dolphins
Patrick Cobbs may finally get the opportunity he has wanted for a couple of years. The former North Texas star has bounced around several teams waiting for his chance to prove his skills. With the season-ending injury to Ronnie Brown, Cobbs should get the opportunity he has always wanted. After the trade of Chris Chambers to the San Diego Chargers, the Dolphins are void of players who can make plays. After Brown had left the game with injury, Cobbs had three carries for 14 yards and a scoring run. Jesse Chatman is now the Dolphins starting running back with Cobbs and rookie Lorenzo Booker as the backups. In deep dynasty leagues, Patrick Cobbs is a great player to roster and see what happens.
Lorenzo Booker, RB, Miami Dolphins
Booker was rated on a par with Reggie Bush coming out of high school, but his career went in fits and starts at Florida State, until a triumphant career ending performance with 208 yards and two touchdowns. Booker carried that momentum over into a solid Senior Bowl week and third round pick by Miami. The team was looking at him as a wide receiver before Ronnie Brown's season ending ACL tear. He should now become active on game day for the first time in his rookie season and get a chance to show off the moves that had his teammates on defense looking bad in practice and training camp. Booker has the receiving ability to be a quality RB in PPR leagues, and he's a true game breaker. He's worth watching to get a glimpse of this future playmaker.
Roydell Williams, WR, Tennessee Titans
Williams has never really lived up to the hype. The third-year pro from Tulane. He had 124 receiving yards on five receptions this past week against the Houston Texans. This was with Kerry Collins at quarterback. With Brandon Jones nicked up, Roydell Williams has enjoyed his opportunity. In the six games this season, the Titan receiver has almost eclipsed his record totals for a season.
Maurice Morris, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Leonard Weaver was the flavor of the week last week, but it was Morris that got 12 touches and an increased workload in the wake of the continuing decline of starter Shaun Alexander. Morris is still in his prime at 27, and he had two very good games as the workhorse last year (30/138 and 21/124) before stepping aside for the return of Alexander. He's got a good chance to play a large role in 2008, and his career still has a few relevant years left in Seattle or elsewhere when his contract expires after the 2008 season. He's an underrated dynasty commodity with surprising upside.
Michael Bennett, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Just before the trade deadline, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers acquired Bennett from Kansas City for undisclosed draft picks in both 2008 and 2009 (tied to performance criteria). Bennett is 29 years old and has not been much of a contributor since his 1,296 yard season in 2002 with the Vikings. Since that time Bennett has failed to gain 500 yards on the ground in any season and had moved on to KC from Minnesota before the 2006 season. Bennett was allegedly going to get a decent amount of touches for the Chiefs this season, but he leaves Kansas City with just 20 carries and 10 receptions. So what does the future hold for the new Buc? With Ernest Graham gaining nearly 200 all-purpose yards and Michael Pittman expected back no later than Week 11 after the bye, Bennett may struggle to contribute at all. He is worth a flier in very deep Dynasty leagues, but for the most part his value is limited barring setbacks to both Graham and Pittman for 2007.
Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints
Who is this guy who scored a 24 yard touchdown last week against Atlanta? The guy who bumped Antonio Pittman off the Saints' roster, that's who. Pittman was drafted by New Orleans in the fourth round this past April, yet Thomas played so well in the preseason that Pittman failed to make the final cut. The Saints and head coach Sean Payton are known for keeping the best talent rather than the high draft picks, so Thomas stuck on the squad and now has some opportunities in the Saints' backfield. After the loss of Deuce McAllister for the season, Thomas has been on the active roster. Given his big run in Week 7 it is possible that Thomas could get more chances when the Saints decide to give Reggie Bush a break. Dynasty leaguers should also remember that Pittman was supposed to be the back that eventually takes over for Deuce McAllister's role - and Aaron Stecker is not. That would leave the door wide open for Thomas to submit his resume this season for that role in 2008 and beyond.
