Dynasty Watch - Week 7
Posted 10/18 by Will Grant, Sigmund Bloom, and Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Cleo Lemon, QB, Miami Dolphins
What has he done so far
Lemon looked good enough during mop-up duty for Joey Harrington in 2006 to earn a start in week 17. This year, Lemon became the starter after Trent Green suffered another scary concussion. He had some success in his first start last week, mounting a comeback to within three points after being down 21 in the first half before the Dolphins succumbed to the Browns. In only his second career start, Lemon accounted for four total touchdowns, throwing 43 passes including many shots downfield.
Current Situation
John Beck is widely regarded as the quarterback of the future, but the Dolphins should err on the side of caution with the rookie, especially with Lemon's spirited play last week. Still, the team will turn to Beck at some point this season unless Lemon leads the 0-6 team to some wins.
Spotlight ETA
Lemon has a chance to sell a team on giving him a chance to win a starting job in 2008 over the next few weeks. He will be a free agent next year, and the number of teams with questions at quarterback only grows by the week. He's knocking on the door of being one of the best 32 signalcallers in the league, if he's not already.
Dynasty Upside
Lemon's two rushing touchdowns might have been a fluke (although he is a mobile QB), but his willingness to play the gunslinger is not. He's thrown 79 passes in his two starts, and he's also effective outside of the pocket. Anyone who started Lemon last week was rewarded, and he seems like the type of QB who will be at least a middling option any time he gets the call. If Lemon can land a starting job next year, he would be an adequate fantasy backup.
Final Thoughts
Lemon has spent time in many organizations and many levels of football since joining the Packers as an undrafted free agent in 2001. His ascent to now start in the NFL and by all measures, hold his own, is a reminder that we should never completely write a player off just because they bounce around the league.
Leonard Weaver, RB, Seattle Seahawks
What has he done so far
Weaver was drafted out of Division II Carson-Newman College, where he was first a linebacker and then a tight end. After the Seahawks signed him after the 2005 NFL Draft as an undrafted free agent, and they converted him to fullback to try and take advantage of his size and strength and groom him as the next Mack Strong. Weaver played impressively in limited action in 2005 and then again in the 2006 preseason. He likely would have been at least the #2 RB behind Shaun Alexander if it were not for his ankle injury. His high ankle sprain cost him the entire 2006 season, a year he spent on injured reserve. Now with Alexander struggling again, Weaver is becoming more of a factor.
Current Situation
Shaun Alexander is not the same running back he once was. For whatever reason - the offensive line, age, decline in skills, or a combination of them all - Alexander is quickly losing his stranglehold on the Seattle tailback position. In Week 6, Weaver came in and rushed three times for 40 yards and caught four passes for 53 yards, seeing significant playing time in the second half. Weaver is pushing Alexander almost as much as Alexander is slipping back to the rest of the pack.
Spotlight ETA
If the 2007 version of Shaun Alexander doesn't start looking like at least the 2006 or 2005 version, Weaver could be asked to carry more of the load. He might get some more touches as it stands, but his fantasy value will be minimized as long as Alexander is a big part of the Seattle offensive picture. The question remains as to what that picture really is, as Weaver was on the field quite a bit in the final quarter of Week 6 as the Seahawks attempted a comeback.
Dynasty Upside
The Seattle Seahawks have a very good offense when it is firing on all cylinders, and the passing game with Matt Hasselbeck and whichever 3-4 WRs he can find on a given week seem to be producing well. Even without much from the TE or RBs as receivers, Seattle is moving the ball. The ground attack, however, is just not what it was in 2005, where Shaun Alexander averaged more than five yards a carry, but now has a paltry 3.6 average. Losing 1.5 yards a touch is huge, and head coach Mike Holmgren has to do something about it quickly. Weaver seems like their best option, and if he can help right the ship, Seattle has a track record of both riding one back and also feeding a featured runner if they perform. Weaver could quickly become the guy in that role, possibly before the end of 2007.
Final Thoughts
Leonard Weaver touched the ball just seven times in Week 6 but had nearly 100 all-purpose yards (3-40 rushing, 4-53 receiving). Seattle loves a featured back and likes big guys that can pound it inside and keep the ball moving downfield. Weaver's size and strength fit that to a tee. Weaver is also well suited for the West Coast Offense as he is a solid receiver coming out of the backfield. With Alexander clearly struggling and another back (Weaver) performing well when called upon, Weaver has to be considered to be the next RB in line to step in. The question only remains as to whether he can sustain the performance levels that he has shown so far and be the next Seattle featured rusher.
Phillip Buchanon, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What has he done so far
Phillip Buchanon was the 17th overall draft pick in 2002. The Miami (FL) CB was the first of two first round draft picks for the Oakland Raiders that season. He played 33 games in his first three seasons with the Raiders, finishing with 113 solo tackles, 11 assists, 0.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, and 11 INTs. He spent the next two seasons in Houston where he played 28 games, had 51 solo tackles, 10 assists, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 INTs. He played in 10 games last season for Tampa (started 4) and had 20 solo tackles, 4 assists, and 2 INTs.
Current Situation
Buchanon is has started the last three games for the Buccaneers due to the injured Brian Kelly. During those three games he has 24 solo tackles, three PDs and 1 INT. Kelly is suffering from a serious groin injury and it's unclear when he will return. For now at least, Buchanon will retain the starting job.
Spotlight ETA
Buchanon is hardly a secret in any league, and has probably been picked up and dropped over the last few seasons in most leagues. He's been tearing up the field over the last couple games though, and should continue to be the starter as long has he is performing at this level.
Dynasty Upside
Buchanon is putting up career numbers for the Bucs, and currently ranked 15th among fantasy DBs (based on FBG scoring). If Buchanon can continue to perform at this level, it's going to be hard to remove him from the starting lineup in Tampa. If he can stay healthy, he's going to be a stud IDP the rest of the season.
Final Thoughts
Lots of IFs surrounding Buchanon now. He's had three solid weeks as a starter, and it's going to be hard for the Bucs to justify removing him from the lineup if Kelly comes back from injury. The key thing with Buchanon will be if he can sustain this production for an extended period of time. He has a history of injury, and has never played a full 16 game season. He's had streaks of high performance at certain points in his career but at the end of the day, he always seems to come up short. The fact that a 17th overall pick is on his third team in five years speaks volumes on how quickly his performance can turn to dust. He's due for a huge salary increase for the 2008 season, and will need to really crank out the numbers if he's going to stay with Tampa. If he's still available in your league, he's worth grabbing now and sticking him into your lineup while he has the hot hand. Be reach for him to cool off though, and don't hesitate to bench him if he returns to his mediocre performance levels.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Marques Hagans, WR, St. Louis Rams
Injuries to Isaac Bruce, Drew Bennett, Dante Hall, and Dane Looker pressed the converted QB from Virginia into action vs. the Ravens last week, and he performed admirably, catching five passes for 74 yards. He had a chance to catch a very tough TD, but did not have the soft hands to make the grab, although he did show good hands on a few downfield catches. Torry Holt has been working with the second year receiver, and Drew Bennett has shown no signs of being the heir to Isaac Bruce, so opportunity could lie in Hagans future.
Jerome Harrison, RB, Cleveland Browns
After being inactive for the first five weeks of the season, Harrison ran with a chip on his shoulder when he finally got to play last week. He was handing out stiff arms and running tough inside, but still showing the open field moves and burst that made him such a productive back at Washington State. Jamal Lewis is a short timer, and Jason Wright is workmanlike, but a career backup. The Browns don't have a first round pick next year, so Harrison could be the most talented back on the roster in 2008. He might be the most talented back on the roster right now.
Kolby Smith, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
In light of Michael Bennett's trade to Tampa Bay, the backup role is up for grabs in Kansas City. The most likely to step into this spot right away is Kolby Smith, who is used to the role. Smith was a career backup at Louisville until Michael Smith broke his leg in the 2006 season opener. If he continues to show the aggressiveness as a runner that made the Chiefs select him in the fifth round this past NFL Draft, he could be a nice pickup and certainly good insurance for Larry Johnson owners. Smith has few challengers to this role, and even fewer if Priest Holmes' return is more hype than help.
David Martin, TE, Miami Dolphins
Given the offensive woes of Miami this season, Martin has been left for dead in many leagues. Until this week, Martin had just nine receptions for 71 yards and no TDs. With Cleo Lemon under center, Martin had three receptions for 18 yards this week, but also had 2 TDs. He's always been a solid red zone target, and as defenses begin to key on Ronnie Brown, Lemon is going to have to look to other options to reach the end zone. Regardless of what he meant to the Dolphins, Chris Chambers has moved on to San Diego. This should also lead to more red zone opportunities for Martin as the season wears on. While he's not going to make people forget about Randy McMichael's performances for the Dolphins any time soon, he's probably still a waiver wire pickup in most leagues. Grab him and see if this TD trend continues. If it does, you've found a gem. If not, no harm, no foul.
Jeff Webb, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Eddie Kennison's struggles to get healthy this season continue, and with the Chiefs down to Samie Parker and first round pick Dwayne Bowe as starters, Webb was given every chance to shine in Week 6. Head coach Herm Edwards said during the offseason that the Chiefs really liked Webb and that he would be given opportunities to shine. After a Week 2 performance (4-59) that had the second year player filling in well for Kennison, Webb has stepped up once again last week by catching 7 of 8 targets for 78 yards when Samie Parker left the game with a knee injury in the first quarter. If Webb continues to be targeted often and can move the chains, he makes a nice midseason find especially in PPR leagues.
Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets
Revis is still available in some leagues, and if you're fortunate enough to have him on the waiver wire, you should grab him now. Revis was the 14th overall pick for the Jets this season out of Pittsburgh, and is currently leading the team in tackles with 36 solo and six assists. He's firmly entrenched himself as a starting CB for the Jets and considering the fact that they are struggling as a team offensively, Revis will continue to see extended action and have plenty of opportunities to post good numbers. He's currently ranked 10th among fantasy DBs and should definitely be on a fantasy roster in Dynasty IDP leagues.
