Dynasty Watch - Week 6
Posted 10/11 by Will Grant, Jeff Pasquino, and Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Andre Hall, RB, Denver Broncos
What has he done so far
Andre was well thought of going into the 2006 draft, but did not hear his name called at Radio City Music Hall. He was signed by Tampa Bay, then cut early in training camp, then signed by Chicago, then cut near the end of camp, then signed to the practice squad in Denver, where he stuck, making the final roster this year. We talked to Andre during training camp, and he glowed when he talked about how much Travis Henry had helped him grow as a running back. One person with the team told us that he thought they were grooming him to eventually replace Henry during the joint practices with the Cowboys before their preseason game.
Current Situation
Denver Post Broncos beat writer Bill Williamson has speculated that Hall would join a committee with Selvin Young once Travis Henry's suspension comes down for a positive drug test. Hall would have at least marginal value as the most talented remaining member of the Denver backfield, and the one that runs the most like Henry.
Spotlight ETA
The court case should resolve itself in the next 2-4 weeks, and Hall would join the active roster and start getting some touches.
Dynasty Upside
Hall has considerable upside because the Broncos will likely part ways with Henry after his suspension comes down. He was the whole offense for South Florida Bulls in 2005, and helped launch the program with his workhorse performances during their first year playing Division I football (Note: They are currently the fifth ranked team in the country in only their third year in DI). Hall is a speedy, shifty, compact, hard-nosed RB. He also has excellent hands and can run well inside and outside. If the 2008 starter at RB is currently on the roster, it's likely Andre Hall.
Final Thoughts
Hall's going undrafted was one of the surprises of the 2006 draft. There was a contingent of draftniks who had pegged Hall as one of their favorite mid-round value RBs, including Tom Casale of Patriots.com, who called Hall "the steal of the draft at the running back position" a week before the draft. The buzz was that Hall "didn't understand what it took to be an NFL player". He is clearly past that bump in the road, and ready to let his talent rise to the surface. Don't let Hall's status as an undrafted, twice-cut player fool you, he has the talent of a first day pick.
Brodie Croyle, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
What has he done so far
Brodie Croyle was the leading candidate to be the starting quarterback to start the season. But, with a poor performance in preseason, Damon Huard was anointed the starter. Croyle was a good passer in college. As a senior, Croyle threw for almost 2,500 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in 12 games. Croyle does not have many regular season NFL passing attempts to judge him by, so the next game or two will be important.
Current Situation
The former star of the Alabama Crimson Tide is now the starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs after the injury to Damon Huard. Croyle has a total of 24 passing attempts and 13 completions since being drafted in the 2006 NFL Draft. It is impossible to extrapolate Croyle's statistics out in an attempt to project how well he will perform. Like many young passers, he will most likely experience some highs and lows.
Spotlight ETA
The Kansas City Chiefs need Croyle to given the offense a spark. So far this season, the Chief offense has been very disappointing. Larry Johnson has not been close to the Larry Johnson of 2006. Eddie Kennison has been out with a hamstring injury. The only bright spot has been the outstanding play of rookie receiver, Dwayne Bowe. The second year passer will probably rely on star tight end, Tony Gonzalez.
Dynasty Upside
As long as the Chiefs have Herman Edwards as the head coach, and Larry Johnson as the star running back, the upside of any Kansas City passer cannot be higher than a top 12 ranking. In addition, the Chiefs have few weapons in the passing game. Rookie sensation, Dwayne Bowe, and Tony Gonzalez are the only weapons at Brodie Croyle's disposal. He will have some good games and some poor games.
Final Thoughts
With the Chiefs sitting at 2-3, they need Croyle to play well from the start. Look for the offense to rely on Larry Johnson more than in the previous five games. The second-year pro can make plays, but has been erratic as far as a Chief. In preseason, Croyle's passes were all over the place. It might have been nerves then, but the Chiefs need their quarterback of the future to play well and not make mistakes.
Chris Harris, FS, Carolina Panthers
What has he done so far
Chris Harris was a sixth round pick for Chicago in 2005 from Louisiana-Monroe. He played in 25 games for the Bears, filling in for Mike Brown when he was injured. Harris was a serviceable fantasy option when he was with Chicago, posting 92 tackles, 20 assists, 1 sack, 8 PDs, and 5 INTs over his first two seasons. He moved to Carolina this summer and has 24 solo tackles, 6 assists, 2 PDs and 1 INT over his first five games.
Current Situation
Harris secured the starting job in Carolina with a strong preseason, and has posted solid numbers for the Panthers all season. In his five games as a starter, Harris has never posted less than five combined tackles in a game, and has really become a nice addition to the Panther secondary.
Spotlight ETA
Harris is a waiver wire option in most dynasty leagues, and his time in the spotlight is now. In Chicago, he was always viewed as a backup on a Super Bowl quality defense. In Carolina, he's a starter on a defense that does not have nearly as much talent as the Bears did those two years. There is little depth as the safety position in Carolina, and Harris is not in danger of losing the job any time soon.
Dynasty Upside
Harris has never played in more than 14 games in any season. He was always viewed as a backup in Chicago, and in Carolina, he's the clear starter. He's on pace now to post career best numbers in every category, and should cement his position as a starter by season end. He's currently ranked 4th among DBs for fantasy scoring, and has a long career ahead of him. He's on pace to finish with 76 solo tackles, 18 assists, 10 PDs and 4 INTs for the season. Not bad for a waiver wire pickup.
Final Thoughts
Harris was pretty much overlooked during his time in Chicago. We featured him in the spotlight a couple times as a player who had the potential to emerge as a star but he never received the opportunity. In Carolina, he's clearly turned it up a notch and is young enough to have a long and prosperous career. He's still available as a waiver wire option in most dynasty leagues, and should definitely be added to your roster if you are in an IDP league.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Ben Obomanu, WR, SEA
Deion Branch has joined D.J. Hackett on the sidelines, and Obomanu is the only big play WR left for Matt Hasselbeck to turn to. Hasselbeck gave Obomanu multiple deep targets in the Pittsburgh game after Branch left with a foot injury. The Seahawks run three wide sets with greater effectiveness than most teams, and Obomanu should continue to get the money deep routes out of those sets for at least the two weeks. He was making plays in the preseason, and could nudge closer to the struggling Nate Burleson on the depth chart with a strong performance. D.J. Hackett has done anything but put a stranglehold on the #2 job this year, so an eventual spot in the starting lineup is not out of the question for the raw Auburn product who is starting to harness his considerable physical tools.
Kyle Eckel, RB, NE
This feel-good story out of Navy got some carries for the Patriots last week, and he could stake a claim to a Mike Alstott short yardage role. Heath Evans has only converted one of his five shots inside the 5. Eckel showed good power on his six carries late in the Browns game last week, and he got the carries as a tailback, which indicates that he might even be next in line if something happens to Sammy Morris. Any player who might end up toting the rock for the rocket fuel powered Patriots offense is worth watching.
Greg Olsen, TE, Chicago Bears
Greg Olsen is finally healthy after battling injuries for the first two games. The star of the NFL Combine is really coming into his own. In the week five game against the Green Bay Packers, the rookie tight end caught four passes for 57 yards and a score. He lined up as both a tight end and a wide receiver. His touchdown grab was pretty impressive, leaping high in the corner of the endzone. Brian Griese often looked in the direction of the rookie from Miami.
Brad Smith, WR, New York Jets
Brad Smith is a versatile receiver from Missouri. He was a quarterback in college and displays very strong open field skills. The New York Jets are still trying to find ways to best utilize the unique skill set Smith offers. The second year pro has already matched his reception total of 2006. He is a receiver to consider in deep leagues. Smith is transitioning well to the receiver position and should progress well over the rest of the season.
Ken Darby, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Darby is due for some serious playing time in the coming weeks with injuries to Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman. While Earnest Graham is going to see the bulk of the carries, Darby will definitely get his chance. The injury to Williams may end his career. It will be a long, hard rehab before any decisions are made. Pittman has never been more than a change-of-pace type of back and if Darby can really light it up this season, he could find himself as a starter for 2008 and beyond.
Nick Folk, PK, Dallas Cowboys
Unless you're living under a rock, you already know that Folk was the player of the game for the Cowboys this week in Buffalo. The rookie went 4-4 in FG attempts with career longs of 47 yards in the second quarter and a 53 yarder to win the game. He hit the 53 yarder twice when the Bills called time out in order to 'ice' him. Folk didn't blink and eye and calmly crushed Buffalo's hopes a second time. He's 10 of 11 for his FG for the season and 20 for 20 on XP attempts. Kickers are often overlooked in dynasty leagues, and Folk may still be available as a waiver wire pickup in some leagues. He is definitely worth a roster slot and has solid long-term potential for the Cowboys.
