Dynasty Watch - Week 5
Posted 10/2 by Will Grant, Jeff Pasquino, and Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Sidney Rice, WR, Minnesota Vikings
What has he done so far
The former South Carolina Gamecock has 10 catches for 106 yards and one score in the first four games of the season. Seven of the catches went for first downs. Rice had a breakout game in week four with six catches yielding 75 yards and a touchdown. This was with Kelly Holcomb at quarterback. Tarvaris Jackson should regain his starting quarterback job in week six, after the bye week.
Current Situation
Sidney Rice is the best receiver for the Minnesota Vikings. Bobby Wade is a low-end possession wideout and Troy Williamson still has issues catching the ball. Rice offers the Vikings a playmaker that has the ability to make the clutch reception. The Vikings rely on their running game, primarily rookie Adrian Peterson. The biggest hurdle Rice faces in becoming a viable fantasy receiver is the play of Tarvaris Jackson. He should be back under center in week six, after the bye week. The Vikings are a very conservative team with Jackson at quarterback and rarely take chances throwing the ball down the field.
Spotlight ETA
The conservative play calling of coach Childress is due primarily to poor quarterback play and the awesome play of Adrian Peterson. The Vikings have a bye this week and play the Chicago Bears in week six. Look for the Vikings to start calling plays for the rookie receiver. The Vikings threw the ball 39 times in week four with Kelly Holcomb at the helm against the Green Bay Packers. They were trying to come back throwing often. Rice was the primary target for Holcomb late in the game when the men in purple were attempting to come back against the Favre-led Packers.
Dynasty Upside
The 6'4, 202 pound receiver is just 21 years old after leaving college following his redshirt sophomore season. He has much room to grow and mature. The rookie needs to fill out his lanky frame. Rice's upside is a top 20 receiver for dynasty. This will not happen in 2007, or maybe even 2008. The Minnesota quarterback situation is a mess but, the Vikings are accumulating young talent on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line looks good.
Final Thoughts
The Minnesota offense is in transition to a run-oriented, ball-control offense, centered on rookie sensation Adrian Peterson. There are no other decent fantasy receivers on the Vikings. Rice will be the primary playmaker at receiver. His touchdown catch in week four displayed the potential many see in the former Gamecock. Look for the rookie receiver to have his ups and downs this season but will display potential not seen in Minnesota since Dennis Green was the head coach.
Aaron Stecker, RB, New Orleans Saints
What has he done so far
Stecker is a journeyman backup running back in the NFL, which is a nice way of saying that he could never break through as a feature back. He has had spotty value in his seven years of service with first Tampa Bay (4 years) and now the Saints, most notably filling in for Deuce McAllister when he tore his knee in 2005. He split time that year in the backfield with Antowain Smith but still managed a career best in 363 yards rushing in 2005.
Current Situation
It looks very much like 2005 all over again, with Deuce tearing his knee yet again. The difference now is the presence of Reggie Bush. Bush could likely get more work as a result of the loss of McAllister, but Stecker appears to be the first in line to fill Deuce's roll. The Saints were still struggling before their Week 4 bye, but with the chance of touches and also goal line looks, Stecker should be a hot pickup this week.
Spotlight ETA
Sunday against the Carolina Panthers begins his next test to show that he can stand up and deliver as a part of a running back by committee in New Orleans. Stecker already had a few touches once Deuce went down in Week 4, but this will be the first game after the injury and also mark two weeks of practice for him to prepare for a lot more work.
Dynasty Upside
Guess who is older, Stecker or Fred Taylor? You probably know the answer because I asked. Taylor is a few months older than Aaron Stecker, which just shows you once again that Stecker is more journeyman than a long term prospect. His time is now and he needs to take full advantage of it, but don't expect much beyond this season.
Final Thoughts
Aaron Stecker will be acquired in a ton of leagues this week if he hasn't been already. While the RB is on the wrong side of 30, he is on an NFL roster and has shown that he can put up decent numbers in the past. Granted he hasn't had 100 yards in a game, or even a touchdown, since 2004 - but veterans that last on rosters do so because they can play. If you are in need of a replacement for Deuce or any other RB, for this year, he's worth a look.
Jacques Reeves, CB, Dallas Cowboys
What has he done so far
Jacques Reeves was a seventh round pick for the Cowboys out of Purdue back in 2004. He saw very limited duty in special teams and in Nickel packages over his first three seasons before taking over as a starter for the injured Terrance Newman. In his first four games this season, Reeves has 16 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 forced fumble and 2 pass defenses.
Current Situation
Newman is back now for the Cowboys, but the other starting CB Anthony Henry has a high ankle sprain and will be out for at least another game, maybe longer. Playing opposite Terrance Newman has its advantages as Reeves will probably see a lot more action on his side of the field as QBs throw away from Newman and try to take advantage of the relatively inexperienced Reeves. That spells trouble for Cowboy fans, but is good for fantasy players as it presents more opportunities for tackles and pass defenses.
Spotlight ETA
Newman was only down for a couple weeks, but Reeves is still a waiver wire pickup in most leagues. However, high ankle sprains can be tricky, and if Henry misses a few more games, Reeves becomes a legitimate fantasy CB. Reeves has already proven that he can be a serviceable option for the Cowboys at CB, and should see extended playing time the rest of the season.
Dynasty Upside
With the Cowboy secondary hobbling due to injuries, Reeves should continue to see playing time. He has done well in replacing Newman and should see plenty of opportunity filling in for Henry. Reeves is only on a one year contract for the Cowboys, and has already done enough to draw interest from other teams this off season. If Reeves continues to perform well, he could find himself as a starter for another team next year.
Final Thoughts
We held off on Reeves because he looked like a short-term fix for Terrance Newman who as due back at any time. With Henry down for a week or more, Reeves will continue to see opportunities on the field. Since he's only under contract for this season, there's a good chance that Reeves could test the open market next summer and find himself as the starting CB on another team for 2008. Even if he stays with the Cowboys, he's proven that he deserves more playing time, and could prove to be a nice find for your dynasty team.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Correll Buckhalter, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Correll Buckhalter is a veteran from Nebraska. Buckhalter has battled knee injuries throughout his career. But, he is the primary backup for Brian Westbrook, who is not an iron man himself. The former Cornhusker has accumulated at least ten fantasy points in each of the last two games. In week four, while replacing Brian Westbrook, Buckhalter had 103 rushing yards on 17 carries. Westbrook's abdomen injury could drag into week six, following the bye next week.
Ryan Grant, RB, Green Bay Packers
Ryan Grant is a name many fantasy footballers are not familiar with. He is a rookie from Notre Dame and was with the New York Giants in preseason. The Green Bay Packers traded a 2008 6th round pick for Grant. The Packers have a crowded backfield, with three rookies (Brandon Jackson, DeShawn Wynn, and Grant) and veteran Vernand Morency. The former Golden Domer really excelled in the preseason for the Giants. Grant had a decent game in week four and could emerge from the crowd as the season progresses. The Packers need one of the four ball carriers to assume the starting job. Grant looks to have as good of a chance as any.
Bryant Johnson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Whenever you think of the passing game of the Arizona Cardinals, you think of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Well, whenever one of these two gets hurt, Bryant Johnson steps up and the offense barely misses a beat. One of the best NFL #3 WRs in the game, Johnson replaced Boldin in Week 4 and caught three balls for 37 yards. If Boldin remains down or if Fitzgerald gets hurt, expect big things from Johnson, who also happens to be in a contract year and could sign with anyone in 2008.
Troy Walters, WR, Detroit Lions
Anyone who is an eligible receiver in Mike Martz's offense is worth trying out if you need a wide receiver. Walters barely missed the cut for last week's Dynasty Watch, but some of the things that made us notice him in Week 3 came to light in Week 4. All of the WRs get targets from Jon Kitna, and even a fourth option got into the act with 2 catches, 36 yards and a score. If Calvin Johnson doesn't heal quickly or if another WR gets hurt, Walters becomes a viable option.
Darnell Dockett, DT, Arizona Cardinals
Through the first four games of the season, Dockett has 13 tackles, 6 assists, 5.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery and 1 pass defense. At this pace, he should easily post the best stats of his career. The Cardinals are starting to move him around more, and he's seeing time at DE this season as well. That has already lead to an increase in his sack total from last year and will give him more opportunities to stuff the run. With Bertrand Berry drawing attention on the other side of the field, Dockett should see a lot of single blocking this year and will continue to be a fantasy force on the DL.
Leigh Bodden, CB, Cleveland Browns
Bodden is another guy who's on a pace for a career year after the first four games this season. He has 18 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery and 5 pass defenses to start the season, and has firmly entrenched himself as the starter for Cleveland. Bodden has never been a 16 game starter, and this could be the year that he finally proves himself for the Browns. He's probably a waiver wire pickup in most leagues, and is worth a roster spot given his performance to date.
