Dynasty Watch - Week 4
Posted 9/26 by Sigmund Bloom, Jeff Pasquino, and Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
The purpose of this column is to spotlight deeper roster moves that could pay off big over the course of the season. Unless stated in a player's write up, we're not looking for one-week wonders here, but shark moves that could really strengthen your team down the road.
Dynasty Watch focuses on low risk, huge payoff roster moves that you might be able make before the guys in your league think about it. This aim of this column is to make you look like a genius to the other owners in your league. When news breaks and the other owners are scrambling to make a waiver wire move, we want them to be upset time and time again that the player is already on your squad.
Ernest Graham, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What has he done so far
The 13 carries for Graham in week three was twenty percent of his career carries spread over 44 games. He is entering his fourth season for the Buccaneers and has excelled in the preseason. For the last four preseasons, the 5'9, 215-pound back has looked great. But, the Tampa coaching staff then placed Graham deep on the depth chart behind Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott.
Current Situation
Together with Michael Pittman, Graham is one of the backup running backs behind Cadillac Williams. After a 13 carry, 88 rushing yard and two score performance, Graham should get more touches going forward. Coach Gruden, after the game had this to say, "Obviously, now we're going to have to put our minds together and figure out how to get Earnest Graham more involved because clearly he's also deserving of the football," Gruden said. "That's a good problem to have." Williams is still the starter, but Graham has played his way into more playing time at the least.
Spotlight ETA
Tampa coach Jon Gruden did say Monday that Cadillac Williams is still his starter and considers Caddy his "featured back." Williams was benched the last bit of the game in week three against the Rams after a fumble and aggravating a rib injury. It might have been precautionary, but Graham showed that he could play well if his number is called.
Dynasty Upside
With the rate that Cadillac Williams gets nicked up and injured, Graham could be a very interesting dynasty option. He is still relatively young, age 27, and could be a viable fantasy back. If the four-year pro was given the opportunity to be the primary ball carrier, Graham could easily have Top 20 potential. He runs hard and is not easy to bring down.
Final Thoughts
During his college career, Graham averaged more than a touchdown and a half per game. This was in the SEC at University of Florida. He was a workhorse for the Gators and could be for the Buccaneers if called upon. Graham is one of the waiver wire pickups this week that could be the primary ball carrier if need be. Graham is a great waiver wire pickup this week.
Kyle Orton, QB, Chicago Bears
What has he done so far
Orton was thrown into the unenviable situation of quarterbacking the Bears fresh out of his first training camp as a Chicago Bear. He was one of the worst starting QBs in recent memory, barely topping 50% accuracy and throwing 9 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He yielded the job back to Rex Grossman at the end of the regular season, and reportedly stalled out in his development as Grossman became entrenched in 2006. Orton reportedly looked more dedicated in the offseason and made the team as the third quarterback.
Current Situation
Rex Grossman has been benched, and since he's a free agent at the end of the year, he might have started his last game as a Bear. Brian Griese will get the start in week 4, but he looked terrible in the last game of the 2006. There are questions about his arm strength, although he could get off to a good start against the Detroit "defense". Since the team has pulled Grossman, Orton could be next in line if Griese faltered or gets injured.
Spotlight ETA
Orton could get a look this year, but the most promising part of his outlook is the chance that he will part of a battle for the starting QB job in 2008. Grossman will be good, and the Bears aren't developing any other young QBs.
Dynasty Upside
Orton can't stretch the field and truly utilize the deep speed of Bernard Berrian, so the passing offense would lose a dimension if he took over. With less effective downfield passing, it's doubtful that Orton could approach Grossman's startable fantasy numbers from his good games in 2006. He'll be rosterable in most leagues, but he shouldn't see your lineup.
Final Thoughts
Brian Griese is probably not going to cut it. We will be talking to John Crist, the editor-in-chief of Bear Report magazine and BearReport.com to get his take on Orton, but he was definitely impressed with Orton's rededication when we talked to him during minicamps. Orton is a quality buy in deep dynasty leagues because of his shot to become entrenched in Chicago, and his dynasty value is increasing by the moment.
Brian Leonard, RB, St. Louis Rams
What has he done so far
Brian Leonard was drafted in the second round (Pick #52) of the 2007 NFL Draft. Several teams including the Giants and the Eagles had circled his name on their Round 2 potential pick sheets in April, but the Rams beat them both to the punch. At the NFL Combine, Leonard had slimmed down to 224 pounds to show that he could be a tailback once again (a role he had prior to his senior year at Rutgers), but the Rams asked him to bulk back up to his 238 pound level. Many suspected that he would be more of a fullback for Steven Jackson, but he was utilized at both positions quite often in preseason.
Current Situation
At first glance, Leonard landing in St. Louis seemed to be the equivalent of "fantasy purgatory". With Steven Jackson, a consensus Top 3 RB coming into 2007, ahead of Leonard on the depth chart, there seemed to be little chance of him seeing much in the way of playing time for several seasons. Fate stepped in on Leonard's behalf this week as Steven Jackson is out for what appears to be several weeks with a groin muscle tear.
Spotlight ETA
Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys will be his first NFL start. Filling in for the injured Steven Jackson, Leonard is expected to get the bulk of the work and carries out of the Rams' backfield. Dallas is not the easiest foe to face in his debut, and the St. Louis offensive line is also ravaged by injury. The good news is that Leonard is also an excellent receiver and can be a factor both as a rusher and as a receiver.
Dynasty Upside
While it would be a wonderful story for Brian Leonard to step in for Jackson and become the next feature RB to come down the line, the likelihood isn't extremely high. The Rams are not playing well, and a feature RB needs help from both the passing game and also the offensive line. Leonard could show glimpses of what he could become if he gets a shot at starting, but with the Rams having a lot of money tied up in Steven Jackson, Leonard's best upside potential would be to showcase his skills over the next few weeks and hope for a trade.
Final Thoughts
Brian Leonard is a tough runner with excellent hands, power and size. He also has terrific leaping ability and has eluded several tacklers by vaulting over them in college and again in the preseason. He is a team player, as evidenced by his returning to Rutgers for his senior season. Leonard was rewarded with a memorable senior year in Piscataway as the Scarlet Knights had a fantastic season, and his team looked to Leonard as one of their key cogs despite his secondary role. Leonard has the character and the skill set to be a solid NFL running back and play for several seasons. Now, with a very good opportunity to show everyone in the league what he can do, Leonard must take advantage and perform as a starting tailback.
Players You Should Already Be Watching
Brian Griese, QB, Chicago Bears
Rex Grossman is imploding and the Chicago Bears will soon turn to veteran backup, Brian Griese. This is his fourth team entering his ninth season in the NFL. The former Michigan star has produced good fantasy numbers in the past. In 2004, as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Griese had 20 touchdowns and 2632 passing yards in only 11 games. The Bears could use his leadership.
Trent Edwards, QB, Buffalo Bills
The rookie from Stanford played well in preseason. He played so well that Craig Nall was released. Edwards entered the week three game against the Patriots after an injury to J.P. Losman. Losman is to be out at least a couple of weeks so the former Cardinal will have time to shine. He did battle injuries throughout college so that is a concern. Edwards looked much better early in the game and appeared rattled as the game progressed. With a full week of practice, getting all of the snaps, look for Edwards to improve.
Delanie Walker, TE, San Francisco 49ers
With Vernon Davis sidelined by an MCL tear, Walker will get a shot to become part of the passing offense for a few weeks in San Francisco. Like Davis, Walker has WR like hands and run after catch ability. He took over a game in the 2006 preseason, and has looked like a promising bookend with Davis in two TE sets, creating matchup nightmares in the passing game. Walker caught three passes vs. Pittsburgh and he should get targeted frequently this week vs. Seattle. He doesn't have great long term upside because Davis' presence, but he could prove that he's one of the few TEs handcuff worth carrying with good performances while Davis is out.
Andre Davis, WR, Houston Texans
With Andre Johnson out for another week and Jacoby Jones out for at least two, Davis is going to start, and assume the #1 role, even with Kevin Walter gets snaps in the one WR sets. Davis was an integral part of the Texans comeback bid against the Colts, including a great catch on a 50/50 deep ball inside the 5 that will surely build Matt Schaub's confidence in Davis ability to make plays. He was once a hot prospect as a speed receiver for the Browns back when Kelly Holcomb and Bruce Arians turned the passing offense into one of the better units in the NFL, but failed to make an impact during stops in Buffalo or New England. We know that Matt Schaub is a solid NFL QB, so any starting WR could have at least temporary value in that offense.
Lance Moore, WR, New Orleans Saints
Lost in the Boos in the Bayou on Monday Night Football was the performance of one Lance Moore. Moore caught six passes for 54 yards against the Titans, reeling in the most receptions of any Saint. Moore caught several balls but none as pretty as a one-handed grab near the sideline where the third year WR from Toledo did a great toe-tap to stay in bounds. Heralded much in the preseason, Moore led the team in August with 21 catches and 255 yards. Moore stuck on the team and initially was used as a kick returner, but now he also appears to be ahead of all the other WRs not named Marques Colston.
David Carr, QB, Carolina Panthers
Quick, name the quarterback with the highest completion percentage last season (minimum of 50 attempts, please). If you said David Carr, congratulations. Well, why isn't he still starting for the Houston Texans? The organization made several changes and shipping Carr out and bringing in Matt Schaub was part of that effort. Carr is now backing up Jake Delhomme, who suffered an elbow injury in Week 3 and is questionable at best to start in Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If Carr is a go in Carolina, he immediately benefits by having the best WR he has ever had, with all due respect to Andre Johnson. Steve Smith, along with TE Jeff King and WR Drew Carter give Carr plenty of targets. Delhomme's play as the starter has not always been steady, so if Carr gets a shot he may take full advantage and force a QB controversy in Carolina.
